80% chance of a strong El Niño this year, 2027 likely to be a record-breaking year
New seasonal modelling from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is pointing to a significant El Niño developing in 2026 — and the implications for global temperatures in 2027 are serious.
Meteorologist Ben Noll, who writes for the Washington Post, summarised the latest ECMWF ensemble output: there is an 80% chance of a strong El Niño by August 2026, a 98% chance of at least a moderate event, and — most striking — a 22% chance of a super El Niño. Those figures are drawn from 50 ensemble members and represent a marked shift in expectations from just a few months ago.
The ECMWF plume shows the NINO3.4 region — the key sea surface temperature index for El Niño monitoring — transitioning from the weak La Niña that persisted through early 2026 (around -0.3°C) to rapidly warming conditions, with ensemble members spreading to between +1.3°C and +3.1°C by September. The clustering of members in the +1.5–2.5°C range by mid-to-late summer is what underpins those probability figures.
What this means for global temperatures
Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, writing on The Climate Brink in December 2025, had already flagged 2027 as a likely record year — but his central estimate of 1.57°C above preindustrial levels assumed only a moderately strong El Niño. The new ECMWF data suggests that a strong-to-super event is now the central scenario, not the tail risk. As Hausfather noted on social media, this would make 2027 "very likely to be the warmest year on record given the historical lag between ENSO and surface temperature."
That lag is crucial. El Niño events typically push global mean surface temperatures to their peak roughly 6–12 months after the SST anomalies themselves peak. A strong El Niño cresting in August–September 2026 would therefore exert its greatest influence on global temperatures in the first half of 2027.
Hausfather's upper bound for 2027 — 1.76°C — was predicated on a very strong event. That figure now looks more like a central expectation than an outlier.
James Hansen had already predicted 2027 temperatures of around 1.7°C, a figure that drew some scepticism when published. Given the new ENSO outlook, that estimate is looking considerably less outlandish.
2026 also revised upward
For 2026 itself, Hausfather notes that the emerging El Niño will push temperatures above his original central estimate of 1.41°C — though 2026 is still unlikely to surpass 2024's record, as the El Niño signal will arrive too late in the year to dominate the annual average.
The picture that is emerging is one of a clear staircase: 2026 warmer than initially expected, and 2027 very probably the hottest year in recorded history.
Minnesota is fucked next winter.
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AK440 ·
