If we want to truly “become an economy based on producing real goods and services,” as Greer told Congress, ending the trade war for US manufacturers needs to be the highest priority.
The outlook for the manufacturing sector — that part of the economy that tariffs were supposed to help — is bleak. Manufacturers continue to shed jobs (down 88,000 year-over-year) while productivity collapsed in the fourth quarter of last year, the opposite of what we would expect if tariffs were boosting productivity, as Greer alleges.
And it’s factory owners themselves who are telling us this story. Manufacturing sentiment, a measure of how manufacturers feel about the growth prospects of their sector, remained negative for most of 2025. In fact, The Economist reported that manufacturers overwhelmingly reported negative sentiments when tariffs were mentioned, with no respondents reporting positive views. There’s little to suggest the manufacturing sector is clamoring for more tariffs.
Though it will take years to fully comprehend the magnitude of the effects the first year of Trump’s trade war had on the US economy, the topline estimates for 2025 do not indicate that tariffs boosted overall growth in the short run. Real GDP for 2025 grew by 2.1% from the annual level, lower than the 2.8% growth in 2024 from the annual level. This is roughly in line with what the CBO projected prior to the new tariff regime.
Even just looking at the data for 2025, we see little evidence of an investment spike from the tariffs. Foreign direct investment was lower in 2025 than in the previous four years. And most of that FDI was reinvested earnings, rather than new investment.
Greer told Congress we are in “a moment of drastic, overdue change.” He’s right: the economy is changing, with the AI boom and other emerging technologies creating new markets for countries to dominate. Yet the president is pursuing a trade agenda that treats the country like it’s 1926, not 2026. America should be pursuing policies that ease the burden on US manufacturers to become the dominant force in this race, not increase it.
Fortune
No, tariffs are not strengthening the economy | Fortune
A senior Tax Foundation economist examines the manufacturing job losses, GDP slowdown, and consumer price hikes that paint a very clear picture.
"Yet the president is pursuing a trade agenda that treats the country like it’s 1926, not 2026."
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