Trump has been right about oil all along
Fri, March 6, 2026 at 7:00 AM CST
Opinion - Trump has been right about oil all along
In 1977, President Carter told Americans the world was running out of oil. Nearly 50 years later, the war in Iran is proving once again that oil is not only still here but also remains an essential geopolitical weapon.
Carter was wrong about oil, but he wasn’t alone. Political leaders around the world, including those in much of Europe and in China, have allowed their countries to depend for decades on oil and natural gas flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow spigot often under threat of closure by terrorists. They have also bet on oil and natural gas from Russia, an equally untenable reliance.
How could this be? Two words: climate obsession.
The green lobbies have had a death-grip on most European countries for the last 25 years. Few realize that Germany, for instance, has the sixth-largest natural gas reserves in the world. But Its government, in the grip of climate zealots, outlawed fracking, and so Germany produces very little of that gas, ranking 48th globally in production, despite being the world’s fourth-largest consumer of the fuel. They need the gas, but don’t want to dirty their climate by producing it.
Similarly, the United Kingdom has allowed its oil production to drop steadily for a quarter century, from a peak of 3 million barrels per day in 1999 to fewer than 600,000 last year. Investment dried up as a Conservative government slapped a 78 percent windfall profits tax on energy companies in 2022 that was meant to be temporary — a response to soaring energy prices in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Like most “temporary” levies, that tax is still in place under a Labour government, even as prices have declined. It is now blamed for a precipitous drop in energy investment.
The Economist reports that no new licenses to drill were approved in 2025 — something that hasn’t happened “since drilling began.” In sharp contrast, Norway approved 40 new oil and gas projects, “projects. It has ramped up oil-and-gas production to “the equivalent of 4 million barrels a day.”
Instead of developing in-country fossil fuels, NIMBY European countries were happy to rely on imports of oil and gas, mainly from Russia. They made that decision against the advice of U.S. President Trump, who warned in 2018 that Vladimir Putin was not to be trusted.
Trump told then-NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, “If you look at it, Germany is a captive of Russia. They got rid of their coal plants, they got rid of their nuclear, they’re getting so much of their oil and gas from Russia. I think it is something NATO has to look at. It is very inappropriate.”
Trump was incensed that the U.S. was paying for Europe’s defense against Russia while Germany, the biggest European economy, was supporting gas deals with Moscow. He was especially alarmed that Germany, under Chancellor Angela Merkel, was doubling down on its Russian dependence by building the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
Trump’s warnings were correct, and their outcomes foreseeable. After all, Russia cut off natural gas exports to Ukraine because of price and debt disputes — and political differences — in 2006, 2009, 2014 and then again, because of the war, in 2022. The Russians aren’t stupid; each of those supply interruptions except one occurred during deep winter.
Now, with the U.S. and Israel joining forces to eradicate the murderous regime in Tehran, the world’s top state sponsor of terror, energy-importing nations are again in trouble. The price of Brent crude has soared above 25 percent over the last month as traders assessed the interruption in oil coming from the Middle East. It could get worse. Approximately 20 percent of the world’s oil supply and about one-fifth of all liquefied natural gas, passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has tried to close.
Recently, word that insurers were refusing to cover ships moving through the Strait brought energy exports from the Gulf to a halt. Iraq, in response, has reportedly had to shut in more than 1 million barrels per day of production, as the country lacks storage or alternative means of export. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have limited pipeline access to markets and so have not yet reduced output, but that may come.
The countries most at risk of a shutdown of the Strait are China, India, Japan and South Korea, which together bought 69 percent of product flows last year.
In contrast, the U.S. imported only about 2 percent of U.S. petroleum consumption through the Strait in 2024. The U.S. Energy Information Administration put 2024 U.S. crude imports from the Persian Gulf “at the lowest level in nearly 40 years,” thanks to increased domestic and Canadian production.
This is no accident. The U.S. in recent decades has prioritized domestic energy production. Yes, we have also invested in windmills and solar fields, but thankfully our own climate zealots (including former President Joe Biden) did not manage to shut down U.S. oil and gas investment.
In 2019, the U.S. became both a net exporter and net producer of energy for the first time in more than 60 years. That makes America strong and resilient.
Not all countries have the resources to protect against supply disruptions in the Middle East, Russia or Venezuela, for that matter. China, for instance, is increasing its renewable energy capabilities.
Our allies in Europe must abandon their climate obsessions and protect their people by developing the fossil fuels they possess. The world is not running out of oil, and it is needed more than ever.
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