The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA), a major piece of legislation, will increase deficits by nearly $3.3 trillion over the next 10 years. This increase is a result of reduced revenues and outlays, as well as additional debt-service costs. The CBO's dynamic estimate, which considers how the bill might affect the economy, projects a slightly lower increase in deficits, but still in the trillions.
Here's a more detailed breakdown:
Conventional Estimate:
The CBO initially estimated that the bill would increase primary deficits by $2.4 trillion over the 2025-2034 period, according to the Congressional Budget Office. This estimate includes a $3.7 trillion reduction in revenues and a $1.3 trillion reduction in outlays.
Debt-Service Costs:
The CBO also estimated that the bill would increase debt-service costs by $551 billion over the 10-year period, due to increased interest rates.
Dynamic Estimate:
When considering the economic effects of the bill, the CBO's dynamic estimate projects a $3.4 trillion increase in deficits, including interest, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. This increase is driven by higher interest rates resulting from the bill, outweighing any gains from increased economic output.
Debt Increase:
The CBO estimates that, under the bill, debt held by the public at the end of 2034 would increase from 117.1% to 123.8% of gross domestic product.
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Crnr2Crnr ·