Why it matters: Latinos' rising discontent could mean trouble for the GOP heading into the 2026 midterms, and undermine Republican redistricting efforts — namely in Texas — partly aimed at exploiting the party's recent gains among such voters.
The big picture: Trump's tariffs have South Texas farmers on edge as crop sales decline, while Latino small-business owners — from bootmakers to small retailers — say their costs are rising.
Grocery prices are up in most categories, and border ports, which are key sources of economic activity in the American Southwest, face financial uncertainty.
Meanwhile, Trump's immigration crackdown by masked federal agents occasionally has involved arrests of Mexican Americans and other U.S.-born Latinos, leading to protests and complaints of racial profiling in several cities.
And Trump's push to deport not just dangerous criminals, but also nonviolent undocumented workers and some legal immigrants, has exacerbated labor shortages and helped to fuel inflation in some sectors.
By the numbers: Trump's support is falling among Latinos across gender and age categories, with his favorability 20 points underwater, per a new poll by left-leaning Latino voter group Somos Votantes that was first reported by Politico.
Just 32% of Hispanic voters approved of Trump's performance in a Reuters/Ipsos poll last month — his lowest mark this year.
A quarter of Latinos who backed Trump last November were either disappointed in his performance or regretted voting for him, according to findings in July by the research firm Equis.
Even before the effects of Trump's tariffs began to show, a nonpartisan UnidosUS poll in April found that 61% of Texas Hispanics — and 59% nationwide — disapproved of his first 100 days as president. The cost of living topped their concerns.
Zoom out: Last November, Trump won 48% of Latino voters — a group that had soundly rejected him in 2020 and 2016 — and it was a key factor in his victory over Democrat Kamala Harris, a Pew Research Center analysis found.
Analysts told Axios that Trump edged Harris with Latinos based on the economy and general dissatisfaction with Democrats and President Biden.
Latino support for Trump began to fall immediately after he announced his tariffs on "Liberation Day" in April, California-based GOP consultant and podcaster Mike Madrid tells Axios.
"Latinos who voted for Trump were concerned about affordability," Madrid said. "They have jobs, but prices are too high, and many felt this wasn't the answer."
University of Houston political science professor Jeronimo Cortina tells Axios that the dissatisfaction among Latinos shouldn't be surprising, as Trump's campaign centered on improving the economy and lowering grocery prices.
Latinos have expressed mixed feelings in polls about Trump's plan for mass deportations, but many — including some who voted for the president — say they're alarmed about the use of tactics such as masked immigration agents making arrests and U.S.-born Latinos being arrested.
"I feel shame, guilt and anger at the same time because of the promises that he made that he lied to us about, going after the worst of the worst," George Doilez, a Latino U.S. citizen, told NBC 7 San Diego after he and his wife were stopped by Customs and Border Protection officers last month.
Doilez said he and his wife voted for Trump in 2020 and 2024.
What they're saying: The White House has responded to such concerns by pushing an upbeat economic message. It has said that "Americans' faith in the economy … is back on track and shooting higher," and predicted improvements in wages, gas prices and retail sales.
The intrigue: At Trump's behest, Texas Republicans passed a redistricting plan last month aimed at giving the GOP five more seats in the closely divided U.S. House. But Democrats believe Latinos' discontent with Trump could undermine that GOP bounty.
Two Democratic groups are launching a six-figure ad campaign against GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz in South Texas, aiming to capitalize on Latino voters' growing dissatisfaction with the economy in that region.
The ads — titled "Dreamers & Doers" and "Some Bulls**t" — will run for four weeks in De La Cruz's majority Latino district, which is anchored in the Rio Grande Valley.
https://www.axios.com/2025/09/26/latinos-trump-discontent-economy-immigration
whut, the economy is just fine... right?
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Crnr2Crnr · Posted
