When will Minnesota hit snow loss cliff?
Predicting exactly when Minnesota will hit the "snow-loss cliff" is difficult because of regional variations, but evidence suggests parts of the state are already at or nearing the threshold. The cliff is not a single event but a phase of accelerated snow decline once average winter temperatures consistently rise above -8°C (17.6°F).
Minnesota is particularly vulnerable because it is already a "mid-latitude" region on the edge of the snow-loss cliff, and its winters are warming faster than any other season.
Minnesota is already experiencing the warning signs
Rapid winter warming: Minnesota winters are warming two to three times faster than summers, especially winter nights in the northern part of the state. Average minimum winter temperatures in northern Minnesota have increased by over 7 degrees Fahrenheit since the late 1800s.
Significant recent examples: The "lost winter" of 2023–2024 was the warmest on record for much of the state, with many areas receiving less than 50% of their normal snowfall by the end of February. Winters like this provide a glimpse into the future of Minnesota's climate.
Reduced snow cover and shorter seasons: As temperatures rise, more precipitation falls as rain rather than snow, and the snow that does fall melts earlier. This has led to an average loss of about 10–14 days of ice cover on Minnesota lakes over the past 50 years and a decline in winter recreation tourism.
Weather whiplash: Minnesota is seeing more frequent and dramatic swings between cold and warm weather in the winter, which leads to rapid mid-winter melts.
Variability will complicate predictions
The timing of when the entire state enters the snow-loss cliff will vary by region due to Minnesota's diverse climate:
Northern Minnesota: The northern, colder regions will maintain a more consistent snowpack for longer. However, they are also warming at the fastest rate, meaning the transition could be more abrupt.
Southern Minnesota: Warmer and more populous southern areas, including the Twin Cities, are closer to the tipping point and will likely see accelerated snow loss sooner. The number of below-zero days has already significantly decreased in recent decades.
Localized impacts: Lake-effect snow in certain areas and natural climate variability will still produce some snowy winters, but these events will become less frequent and less reliable over time.
For water managers and winter-dependent economies, the snow-loss cliff isn't a single future date. It is a process that has already begun, and accelerated change is likely in the coming decades, particularly in the state's more southerly regions.
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