I could care less about those... but I do love a good BLT
Food & Wine
Tomato Prices Are About to Spike — Here’s Why Your BLT Co...
A trade agreement that kept Mexican tomato prices in check is about to lapse. Once it does, importers face steep tariffs — and costs may pass quickly to consumers. With supply tightening and demand...What could this mean for consumers?
The short-term effects may take several weeks to fully show up in stores, especially as distributors clear out existing inventory. However, the combination of tighter supply, peak seasonal demand, and new costs could raise retail prices later this summer, at a time when tomatoes are typically cheapest.
Tomatoes are the most popular fresh vegetable consumed in the U.S., and they’re central to everything from BLTs to salsa. What many shoppers don’t realize is that Mexico supplies 93% of U.S. tomato imports, according to the USDA. And while Florida and California are major domestic producers, they can’t fully meet the national demand, especially during winter and early spring. This makes the U.S. tomato supply particularly vulnerable to cross-border changes like tariffs.
Higher prices may lead to substitution (hello, cucumbers) or a rise in prices on tomato-forward menu items at restaurants. Even if the agreement is reinstated — or modified — after July 14, the uncertainty is already influencing planting decisions. The USDA notes that many Mexican growers are cutting back on investment and exploring alternative markets to offset U.S. demand disruptions.
This isn’t just a price story. Reduced planting means less work — not just for farmers, but also for the people who pack, ship, and process tomatoes along the way. According to the USDA, growers are already scaling back for the autumn–winter season, when U.S.-bound exports are usually at their peak. The ripple effect could impact both sides of the border, from farm labor in Sinaloa to distribution jobs tied to U.S. imports.
How will this impact your grocery bill?
Fresh tomatoes are a staple in American kitchens, but the supply chain relies heavily on imports, especially during colder months. If tariffs return, shoppers may see higher prices not just in the produce aisle but anywhere tomatoes appear on the menu. From salsas to salads, BLTs to marinara, the effects will ripple outward quietly but noticeably.
By
Crnr2Crnr ·
