Excellent summary.
As much as I hate the idea, importing beef is one of the few options.
I think we're going to get used to the idea that American beef is not going to be competitive. The practical reality is that we can't afford to produce cheap beef.
The long turnaround getting animals to butcher weight makes it hard to jump in and out of beef production. It's also common to use borrowed money to carry expenses during that time. We're currently seeing an end result of high input costs over a number of years. High corn prices in '22 started a lot of the trouble we're seeing today. Feed costs went up and a lot of land was switched to higher profit corn acres. Consecutive drought years also hurt pasture production on remaining acres. We lost a lot of beef production from farmers that were not willing to take the risk using leveraged money for three year carcass weights.
Ironically, the farmers that stuck it out have been seeing strong pricing on butcher weights as of late. Smaller herd numbers and continued consumption is good for the farmer that has beef to sell. The common consensus is that the market can't last. Processing expenses are trending upward with labor changes. Money expenses and feed inputs continue to rise. Many of the remaining farmers are also ready to jump out when the market turns. (It's common to hear the saying, "I think this is my last herd". The risk is too high with higher costs in leveraged money and feed inputs.
Lower cost imported meat will be the signal to jump out for a lot of remaining beef producers.
I am not a fan of subsidies to help cover input costs. Granted, those systems are in place around the world in many markets, but they also lead to overproduction. That leads to more need for subsidies. European beef production without subsidies would not be competitive. American farmers already have risk management subsidies.
I don't want to see imported beef. Overall, it will be one huge kick in the nuts for American beef production.
To answer the question, "What's your solution to lowering the price of beef?"
Countries that can produce beef cheaply are simply too hard to overcome. Importing seems to be one of the few solutions to lowering the price of beef.
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