2023 Snowmobile Industry Predictions

[Doug 2,734]

It will be interesting what happens in 2023.  With supplier issues and part shortages, late sled deliveries, some sleds orders basically being cancelled.  Guys that sold their sleds in spring and not having a sled to ride.  Used market prices on sleds being crazy.  Talks about price increases delivery charges.  What will the snowcheck programs look like?

Will we even have 3-1/2 manufactures.  Fighting part shortages, transportation issues and the unpredictable winters will some manufactures say I'm out.  Polaris did just that in the personnel watercraft market.

It will be interesting      

[Bontz 3,901]

I can tell you one person that won't be fucking around with Snowcheck anytime soon.  Anyone with a functional brain should recognize what's going on, and stay away from pony'ing up ridiculous money for this stuff.

[teamgreen02 2,121]

23 minutes ago, Bontz said:

I can tell you one person that won't be fucking around with Snowcheck anytime soon.  Anyone with a functional brain should recognize what's going on, and stay away from pony'ing up ridiculous money for this stuff.

I haven't learned that lesson yet.  Sign me up for next spring!

[wrinkly balls 81]

I will be snochecking something in spring. It all depends if cat can pull something new out of there ass or if i have to try a poo 650. I wonder if all release dates will be pushed back to middle of march!!!!

[Crnr2Crnr 4,626]

CatAha being #3 & #4 in sales seem to be in a better position to deliver there snow checks.  I regularly complain about their lack of snow check options but it may have saved their bacon this winter by sticking to the 2012 models, and limiting options  

Conversely, Polaris offers 46 different models and customers can build them to their liking, which in times like this doesn't help matters.  If I were in charge for 2023 I would consider limiting models, colors, track options, etc., produce snow check orders first and foremost and then focus on dealer stock.  Imo there's no way dealers should get inventory if their loyal buyers aren't getting their sleds.  

Looking solely at this source, it appears several dealers got or have inventory of 2022's.

https://www.snowmobiletrader.com/2022-Polaris/snowmobiles-for-sale?make=Polaris|2319876&year=2022%3A2022

Track availability was a big issue this year so I wonder if that's why new 129's seem more prevalent?

[Doug 2,734]

I'll probably still snowcheck this spring but unlike this year will go back to keeping my old sled until the new one comes in.

[Mag6240 3,529]

2 minutes ago, Doug said:

I'll probably still snowcheck this spring but unlike this year will go back to keeping my old sled until the new one comes in.

There were at least 6 snowchecks in my club, I told every single one of them last spring not to sell the old until they had the new - They have all thanked me and owe me a beer!!

Edited December 16, 2021 by Mag6240

[sleepybrew 965]

23 hours ago, Bontz said:

I can tell you one person that won't be fucking around with Snowcheck anytime soon.  Anyone with a functional brain should recognize what's going on, and stay away from pony'ing up ridiculous money for this stuff.

the bottom is going to fall out of something here before too long. no way this can go on like it is. sleds are overpriced for sure, but other shit like dirt bikes is insane as well. nothing to a dirt bike. 

[awful knawful 5,729]

The bottom will fall out of this.

Fuck before the pandemic manufacturers were crying of low sales #s.

When the Bs is over, and folks can do other things like travel, the manufacturers will be crying again.

[mnstang 1,439]

1 hour ago, sleepybrew said:

the bottom is going to fall out of something here before too long. no way this can go on like it is. sleds are overpriced for sure, but other shit like dirt bikes is insane as well. nothing to a dirt bike. 

Disagree.  The level of engineering and competitiveness in moto bikes is many levels above snowmobiles.  Not even close.

[nacapster 66]

I wouldn't be surprised if reveal dates get pushed back. Some guys still won't have their 22s or only had them for a week or two come late Feb. I also see tighter limits on dealer orders so if you want a 23 I wouldn't wait till the end of the spring order period, that will probably get shortened as well. Oh, in addition to the normal MSRP hike we'll also get to enjoy commodity surcharges & extra freight charges. I should've stuck to my 3 year pattern and ordered a 21. 

On the sleds themselves this is what I see:

Arctic Cat - Will they finally release something new or continue to lay low due to the current state of affairs??? They obviously have a new chassis and engine in the works, possibly suspension as well. Doo & Poo have had their 850s out for several seasons now and the Pro-Cross is entering it's 11th year.

Polaris - In typical me to fashion they will debut their version of smart shox and little else.

Yamaha - She's done, stick a fork in it. 

Ski-Doo - Possible new plastics / headlight combo, possible goodies from the race sled (front end), & possible tune / tweak to the 600R to keep up with the Jones.

[A05GSHO 304]

GUARANTEED delivery by 06/2024. Thats my prediction.

 

I'm done.  IF I get my 2022 snowcheck it'll have a 4 year warranty and I'll run that and my Mach Z until I die.

[p51mstg 520]

Supply chain problems are gradually easing.  As components catch up, we’ll start seeing dealers with machines on the floor.  I think this will happen next fall, for the 22-23 season.

As dealer inventory starts to grow, and it becomes easier for people to trade up in-season, we’ll start seeing more used sleds at more reasonable prices.  I think this will start happening in the spring of 2023, near the end of the season.

For manufacturers, After introducing their turbo 2-stroke engines, I think Doo and Polaris need a year off for R&D and we won’t see anything substantial for 2023.  The real question is whether Cat will finally introduce the new chassis they’ve been hinting about.  I don’t expect Yamaha to add anything above what Cat does.

What happens to EPS is something I’m interested in.  I re-read an interview recently that said Cat couldn’t fit EPS into the 2-stroke sleds because of where everything else fit under hood.  I would think the 4-stroke turbo triple would take up more room, but apparently not.  Would a new Cat chassis solve that problem?  Could Polaris or BRP shoehorn their ATV power steering into sleds next year?  

[Zambroski 24,074]

8 minutes ago, p51mstg said:

Supply chain problems are gradually easing.  As components catch up, we’ll start seeing dealers with machines on the floor.  I think this will happen next fall, for the 22-23 season.

As dealer inventory starts to grow, and it becomes easier for people to trade up in-season, we’ll start seeing more used sleds at more reasonable prices.  I think this will start happening in the spring of 2023, near the end of the season.

For manufacturers, After introducing their turbo 2-stroke engines, I think Doo and Polaris need a year off for R&D and we won’t see anything substantial for 2023.  The real question is whether Cat will finally introduce the new chassis they’ve been hinting about.  I don’t expect Yamaha to add anything above what Cat does.

What happens to EPS is something I’m interested in.  I re-read an interview recently that said Cat couldn’t fit EPS into the 2-stroke sleds because of where everything else fit under hood.  I would think the 4-stroke turbo triple would take up more room, but apparently not.  Would a new Cat chassis solve that problem?  Could Polaris or BRP shoehorn their ATV power steering into sleds next year?  

I agree with all this…with the mild exception of the Cat chassis.  The PC is solid and very refined right now.  A good face lift is what is needed though.  Just go off the SX sled and do something with the light and I think that’ll be good.

Yep, supply chain will catch up and dealer floors will be flush.  The question is, what’s the price point?

I also thing Snowchecks will have to be something special and if you don’t ask for a delivery date in writing (something we all should find silly NOT DOING) it’s your own fault.

[Bontz 3,901]

1 minute ago, Zambroski said:

I agree with all this…with the mild exception of the Cat chassis.  The PC is solid and very refined right now.  A good face lift is what is needed though.  Just go off the SX sled and do something with the light and I think that’ll be good.

Yep, supply chain will catch up and dealer floors will be flush.  The question is, what’s the price point?

I also thing Snowchecks will have to be something special and if you don’t ask for a delivery date in writing (something we all should find silly NOT DOING) it’s your own fault.

Right there ^^^

 

It's complete bullshit if these things continue climb closer to (or past!!) $20K.  

[Doug 2,734]

Starting to get a little more crabby not having my sled.  Was up by our place up Nth with a good 10" plus of snow on the ground.  If I would have had my new sled it would have been a nice break-in opportunity.  If I didn't see floor plan sleds at dealers with the very parts on that Snowcheck sleds are missing is aggravating.  The choice of what sleds get the limited supply parts is within Polaris's control and seeing floor plan sleds with these parts is not sitting well.  If I can by that floor plan sled now instead of waiting for my snowcheck why don't you send my sled and I'll take the parts off the floor plan sled to complete mine.  

Snowcheck is going to be a question mark for me next year.  When I actually get my sled?  Will there be some programs offered for late deliveries in 2022?  Don't see Polaris coming out with anything really new other than a flatland turbo.  And there will be the price increase.

Ski-Doo also has customers waiting for sleds but seem to be doing a better job getting sleds out complete to customers.  Ski-Doo may expand on their smart suspension for 2023.

Arctic needs to go get out of the Ramsted thought process and come out with something new.  The SS 1969 Camaro was a great car but they didn't still make it in 1989 with minor tweaks along the way.  Rumor continues to come out that Arctic Cat has something new.  We use to have 3-4 diehard Arctic Cat guys in our club we're done to one that's look elsewhere.

Yamaha needs to get out of being an engine supplier and build a sled again.  They've had some good sleds in the past    

[nacapster 66]

3 hours ago, p51mstg said:

Supply chain problems are gradually easing.  As components catch up, we’ll start seeing dealers with machines on the floor.  I think this will happen next fall, for the 22-23 season.

As dealer inventory starts to grow, and it becomes easier for people to trade up in-season, we’ll start seeing more used sleds at more reasonable prices.  I think this will start happening in the spring of 2023, near the end of the season.

For manufacturers, After introducing their turbo 2-stroke engines, I think Doo and Polaris need a year off for R&D and we won’t see anything substantial for 2023.  The real question is whether Cat will finally introduce the new chassis they’ve been hinting about.  I don’t expect Yamaha to add anything above what Cat does.

What happens to EPS is something I’m interested in.  I re-read an interview recently that said Cat couldn’t fit EPS into the 2-stroke sleds because of where everything else fit under hood.  I would think the 4-stroke turbo triple would take up more room, but apparently not.  Would a new Cat chassis solve that problem?  Could Polaris or BRP shoehorn their ATV power steering into sleds next year?  

That would be cool, I got bad wrists from a m-cycle accident so I'd be all for power steering. 

Truth be told BRP is the only one that really " needs " it. I haven't ridden the 21 or newer model though with the revised suspension geometry, maybe they're better in that regard with less transfer both back and forward. 

 

 

[Bontz 3,901]

@Doug - I agree with ya 100% on the idea of dealer floor units should not be delivered until the pre sold units from the Snow Check program are complete.  Having some schmuck being able to waltz into a dealership and buy a sled that has the parts a snow check customer is waiting for is absurd (even if said schmuck is willing to pay an arm & a leg for that floor unit).  I get the whole supply chain debacle and it's not just Polaris, or snowmobiles - but this is growing more and more frustrating for me, too.

[Doug 2,734]

@Bontz Have a local sled salvage yard by us and was out there Monday for some parts on a sled I'm working on.  Asked if he had any Polaris Matrix sleds and he had one that was hit hard right in the center but still had good spindles.  I bought the spindles just in case. 

 

[mnstang 1,439]

I'd be surprised if cat introduced a new chassis right now with the parts availability problems that is happening.  I haven't heard anything from cat either that anything is on the way.  They maxed out on most models for ordering so they prob don't have urgency to do that anyway.

[Legend 680]

1 hour ago, Doug said:

Starting to get a little more crabby not having my sled.  Was up by our place up Nth with a good 10" plus of snow on the ground.  If I would have had my new sled it would have been a nice break-in opportunity.  If I didn't see floor plan sleds at dealers with the very parts on that Snowcheck sleds are missing is aggravating.  The choice of what sleds get the limited supply parts is within Polaris's control and seeing floor plan sleds with these parts is not sitting well.  If I can by that floor plan sled now instead of waiting for my snowcheck why don't you send my sled and I'll take the parts off the floor plan sled to complete mine.  

Snowcheck is going to be a question mark for me next year.  When I actually get my sled?  Will there be some programs offered for late deliveries in 2022?  Don't see Polaris coming out with anything really new other than a flatland turbo.  And there will be the price increase.

Ski-Doo also has customers waiting for sleds but seem to be doing a better job getting sleds out complete to customers.  Ski-Doo may expand on their smart suspension for 2023.

Arctic needs to go get out of the Ramsted thought process and come out with something new.  The SS 1969 Camaro was a great car but they didn't still make it in 1989 with minor tweaks along the way.  Rumor continues to come out that Arctic Cat has something new.  We use to have 3-4 diehard Arctic Cat guys in our club we're done to one that's look elsewhere.

Yamaha needs to get out of being an engine supplier and build a sled again.  They've had some good sleds in the past    

What engines are they all supplying now? 998 turbo, what else? The 3 cylinder engine still around?

[Crnr2Crnr 4,626]

2 hours ago, mnstang said:

I'd be surprised if cat introduced a new chassis right now with the parts availability problems that is happening.

AC doesn't have to reinvent the wheel, but updating the skid, a new seating position, shedding a few lbs and facelift would likely satisfy most.  A bigger bore is due, but not until they dial in the EPA 800 and prove it's fixed and Zuke reliable.  

Yamaha would be wise to sell a 600 & 800 trail sled, even if they're just rebranded Cat's.  It worked for Moto Ski, until it didn't.

Doo, who cares, they're #1 in sales, rah rah and move along midgets 

Polaris, no change in sight.  23's same as 22's - they're going to have to get in the 4S game at some point.

 

 

 

[mnstang 1,439]

1 hour ago, Crnr2Crnr said:

AC doesn't have to reinvent the wheel, but updating the skid, a new seating position, shedding a few lbs and facelift would likely satisfy most.  A bigger bore is due, but not until they dial in the EPA 800 and prove it's fixed and Zuke reliable.  

Yamaha would be wise to sell a 600 & 800 trail sled, even if they're just rebranded Cat's.  It worked for Moto Ski, until it didn't.

Doo, who cares, they're #1 in sales, rah rah and move along midgets 

Polaris, no change in sight.  23's same as 22's - they're going to have to get in the 4S game at some point.

 

 

 

Just a new seat with a different shape and different foam would help out alot.

I don't believe they need a bigger bore.  But for your argument sake, did Polaris and skidoo have Suzuki reliability when they went larger?  Rhetorical question, I know the answer, you don't have to humiliate yourself.

If people or cat actually cared about shedding a few pounds they could easily remove 24 pounds by taking off electric start.  It would also give a smaller MSRP.  With that said I don't think the weight difference is that much if I remember right from the shootout.  With cat being such a more durable sled, any further weight drop may possibly come at the cost of durability.   Unless they can find a way to make the hood and headlight lighter.. it seems way heavier than necessary and that is weight that is high up and over the front.  Maybe going to the blast/SX good could shed a couple.  I personally don't see the fascination with those hoods like some of you hibberts.

 

[SayatodaU.P.eh? 1,747]

Supply chain will start to come around. I doubt much change will come from any of the manufacturers, as far as new models, etc. I’ll be willing to bet that snow check will be very limited this year, in order to better get sleds to customers in time next year. 
 

As for @Bontzand @Doug, if you guys can get floor models, with similar builds to what you had ordered, why don’t you cancel your orders and take the floor models? 

[Doug 2,734]

2 minutes ago, SayatodaU.P.eh? said:

Supply chain will start to come around. I doubt much change will come from any of the manufacturers, as far as new models, etc. I’ll be willing to bet that snow check will be very limited this year, in order to better get sleds to customers in time next year. 
 

As for @Bontzand @Doug, if you guys can get floor models, with similar builds to what you had ordered, why don’t you cancel your orders and take the floor models? 

I still have my 2021 VR1 that my wife will ride this year.  She has a rental agreement for me to sign so I can ride it.