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Layoffs could spike as one labor-market indicator says a recession is already here, market forecaster says


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28 minutes ago, hayward said:

Yeah well, swipe some more credit cards when goods are overpriced Americans, you fucking fools.

there's a massive supply over-run people aren't discussing.

;)

Sunday I drove past a small implement dealer that must have had 100 small brand new Kubotas sitting on their lot. Idk who they plan to sell them to?  Same with new cars/trucks, boats, sleds, etc, etc, etc.  

Between existing debt and current interest rates... Chickens may be coming home to roost. 

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1 hour ago, Crnr2Crnr said:

there's a massive supply over-run people aren't discussing.

;)

Sunday I drove past a small implement dealer that must have had 100 small brand new Kubotas sitting on their lot. Idk who they plan to sell them to?  Same with new cars/trucks, boats, sleds, etc, etc, etc.  

Between existing debt and current interest rates... Chickens may be coming home to roost. 

Friend of mine just said the same about an atv dealership near us.

Another guy claims $200/square foot to build a ranch house.:flush:

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1 hour ago, Crnr2Crnr said:

there's a massive supply over-run people aren't discussing.

;)

Sunday I drove past a small implement dealer that must have had 100 small brand new Kubotas sitting on their lot. Idk who they plan to sell them to?  Same with new cars/trucks, boats, sleds, etc, etc, etc.  

Between existing debt and current interest rates... Chickens may be coming home to roost. 

Can you elaborate?  Is this something to do with student loan debt?

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the job growth has been in shitty jobs for awhile now.   decent high paying ones have been getting crushed through several industries.   Honestly no idea how the economy has stayed this bouyant for so long.  

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1 hour ago, Mainecat said:

Brick and Morton stores are closing every day.

And it’s great amirite 

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This is the longest in US history the yield curve has been inverted.  Typically, interest rates are higher for longer terms, think a 36 month car loan vs an 84 month car loan.  Recently, the 3 month yield has been higher than the 10 year yield.  Any yield curve inversion is typically followed by a recession.  The longer and deeper the inversion, the worse the recession.

It's delusional to think we just have a soft landing and the economy never contracts.  The plant closures, layoffs, and hiring freezes will continue.

 

USYieldCurve

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1 hour ago, teamgreen02 said:

This is the longest in US history the yield curve has been inverted.  Typically, interest rates are higher for longer terms, think a 36 month car loan vs an 84 month car loan.  Recently, the 3 month yield has been higher than the 10 year yield.  Any yield curve inversion is typically followed by a recession.  The longer and deeper the inversion, the worse the recession.

It's delusional to think we just have a soft landing and the economy never contracts.  The plant closures, layoffs, and hiring freezes will continue.

 

USYieldCurve

Biden Laugh GIFs - Find & Share on GIPHY

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1 hour ago, teamgreen02 said:

This is the longest in US history the yield curve has been inverted.  Typically, interest rates are higher for longer terms, think a 36 month car loan vs an 84 month car loan.  Recently, the 3 month yield has been higher than the 10 year yield.  Any yield curve inversion is typically followed by a recession.  The longer and deeper the inversion, the worse the recession.

It's delusional to think we just have a soft landing and the economy never contracts.  The plant closures, layoffs, and hiring freezes will continue.

 

USYieldCurve

Deflation is just around the corner. It’s going to be very very ugly. 

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3 hours ago, ActionfigureJoe said:

Stay lean and keep your head on a swivel. Ain’t no politician gonna save this. I feel sorry for the weak and helpless. 

You also forgot dumb, you know, the ones up to their eyeballs in debt............."I deserve it"! 

Amazing how all those debt riddled fools believe they deserve so much more than they really do. Now they get to find out the hard way. 

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6 hours ago, Crnr2Crnr said:

there's a massive supply over-run people aren't discussing.

;)

Sunday I drove past a small implement dealer that must have had 100 small brand new Kubotas sitting on their lot. Idk who they plan to sell them to?  Same with new cars/trucks, boats, sleds, etc, etc, etc.  

Between existing debt and current interest rates... Chickens may be coming home to roost. 

Same here the Deere and kubota dealers I drive by few times a week the lots are packed full and seems like it’s the same stuff that’s been sitting there for months. Seeing some leftover sleds 3k off msrp not bad but not enough. There seems to be a shit load of sxs at one place I go by people finally figuring out 40k maybe a little insane for a sxs.

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15 minutes ago, 800renegaderider said:

Same here the Deere and kubota dealers I drive by few times a week the lots are packed full and seems like it’s the same stuff that’s been sitting there for months. Seeing some leftover sleds 3k off msrp not bad but not enough. There seems to be a shit load of sxs at one place I go by people finally figuring out 40k maybe a little insane for a sxs.

yup... hence the layoffs 

followed eventually by discounts and rebates

the price of specific goods is catching up with the corporations

step one, is layoffs and production cuts, then the rest falls in line 

well past due... still no hope for @ckf's made in Mexico Twinkies though.

 

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2 hours ago, snoughnut said:

You also forgot dumb, you know, the ones up to their eyeballs in debt............."I deserve it"! 

Amazing how all those debt riddled fools believe they deserve so much more than they really do. Now they get to find out the hard way. 

Some are just dumb and not overextended on credit. Low wages and incapable of moving up. 

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13 hours ago, Crnr2Crnr said:

there's a massive supply over-run people aren't discussing.

;)

Sunday I drove past a small implement dealer that must have had 100 small brand new Kubotas sitting on their lot. Idk who they plan to sell them to?  Same with new cars/trucks, boats, sleds, etc, etc, etc.  

Between existing debt and current interest rates... Chickens may be coming home to roost. 

See the same here. 

Add in rv's and trailers.

Worst part IMO,  is government spending in the last few years has much to blame for it and now we find ourselves powerless to control the inevitable.

The  piggy bank is empty and the ability to stimulate the markets isn't there. 

We are on track, to next year pay roughly %15 of our federal tax in interest alone, or 55 Billion dollars.

I put that figure at roughly $3000 per taxpayer. 

 

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CNH moving production to Mexico...

https://www.wpr.org/news/case-tractor-factory-farm-equipment-manufacturer-layoffs-mexico

The job cuts are part of the company’s broader plan to move jobs to Mexico as a cost-savings move that comes after recent stock buybacks and strong corporate profits.

:news:

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