I say it’s time to start opening up

[AKIQPilot]

I’m an emergency physician at St. Barnabas Hospital in The Bronx. I have been in the ER every day these last few weeks, either supervising or providing direct care. I contracted a COVID-19 infection very early in the outbreak, as did two of my daughters, one of whom is a nurse. We are all well, thank God.

COVID-19 has been the worst health care disaster of my 30-year ­career, because of its intensity, duration and potential for lasting impact. The lasting impact is what worries me the most. And it’s why I now believe we should end the lockdown and rapidly get back to work.

From mid-March through mid-April, the ER staff at St. Barnabas huddled in groups of about 20 every morning. We asked ourselves what had happened over the previous shift. We generated a list of action­able tasks for the following 24 hours. At first, we addressed personal protective equipment and the management of patients with mild illness who were seeking COVID-19 tests.

Then came the wave of critically ill patients in numbers none of us had ever seen. This lasted for two weeks. The number of patients on ventilators accumulated in the ER and throughout the hospital. We witnessed an unprecedented number of deaths. The tone of the huddles became more somber. We became accustomed to the morbidity; we did our jobs.

It is precisely what I have witnessed that now tells me that it’s time to ease the lockdown. Here’s why.

First, the wave has crested. At 1 p.m. April 7, the COVID-19 arrivals slowed down. It was a discrete, noticeable event. Stretchers became available by 5 p.m., and the number of arriving COVID-19 patients dropped below the number discharged, transferred or deceased.

This was striking, because the community I serve is poor. Some are homeless. Most work in “essential,” low-paying jobs, where distancing isn’t easy. Nevertheless, the wave passed over us, peaked and subsided. The way this transpired tells me the ebb and flow had more to do with the natural course of the outbreak than it did with the lockdown.

Second, I worry about non-coronavirus care. While the inpatient units remain busy with sick COVID-19 patients, our ER has been quiet for more than a week. We usually average 240 patients a day. For the last week, we averaged fewer than 100. That means our patients in this diverse, low-income community are afraid to come to the ER for non-COVID care.

Gotham-wide, the number of 911 ambulance runs declined to 3,320 on April 18, down from a peak of 6,527 on March 30, according to New York Fire Department data. The current nadir is significantly below the average.

A large share of those staying home surely have emergency medical and surgical conditions not related to the novel coronavirus. The growing numbers ­dying at home during this crisis must include fatal myocardial infarctions, asthma exacerbations, bacterial infections and strokes.

Meanwhile, our pediatric volume in the ER has practically disappeared. Visits to primary-care pediatricians are also down, with vaccine schedules falling behind. Everyone seems to be avoiding the health system — an important and unfortunate consequence of the stay-at-home strategy.

Third, inordinate fear misguides the public response. While COVID-19 is serious, fear of it is being over-amplified. The public needs to understand that the vast majority of infected people do quite well.

Finally, COVID-19 is more prevalent than we think. Many New Yorkers already have the COVID-19 infection, whether they are aware of it or not. As of today, over 43 percent of those tested are positive in The Bronx. We are developing a significant degree of natural herd immunity. Distancing works, but I am skeptical that it is playing as predominant a role as many think.

More testing will better establish the numbers among those with mild illnesses and no symptoms. My professional ­experience tells me the number of infected people will be high. Testing is important work, but it should happen in parallel to the immediate resuscitation of the economy and getting people back to work.

At present, the testing is ­imperfect. We can’t wait months. We must protect the vulnerable and mitigate without destroying the economy.

Standing up to this virus can’t be the job of essential workers only. We’ve been strong, but we’re tired, and we need the rest of you to help us. By getting back to work.

Daniel G. Murphy, MD, is chairman of the Department of Emergency Medicine at St. Barnabas Hospital in The Bronx.

http://nypost.com/2020/04/27/ive-worked-the-coronavirus-front-line-and-i-say-its-time-to-start-opening-up/

[Guest]

Everybody has to deal with this virus...…………...the way they see fit. 

If you're not afraid of it, then do what you want.

If you are afraid of it, then hide in the chicken coop.

 

Your call. 

[f7ben]

Fuck getting back to work

This country and our entire system is a Ponzi scheme designed to enrich the elites on the backs of our labor

I wish every person in the US would say 

Fuck You.....try and get rich without my labor

[Snake]

49 minutes ago, f7ben said:

Fuck getting back to work

This country and our entire system is a Ponzi scheme designed to enrich the elites on the backs of our labor

I wish every person in the US would say 

Fuck You.....try and get rich without my labor

Sure. Do that.

You'll take your dog ass to work and like it.

[Highmark]

5 minutes ago, Snake said:

Sure. Do that.

You'll take your dog ass to work and like it.

He sure talks a big game.  

[Jimmy Snacks]

Sounds like Construction is opening up here on May 7th...we are going to working harder than a one armed man in a paper hanging contest. 

[hayward]

6 minutes ago, Jimmy Snacks said:

Sounds like Construction is opening up here on May 7th...we are going to working harder than a one armed man in a paper hanging contest. 

my gut tells me there's going to be an instant boom come may and june.  Not sure how long it'll last till the effects finally show up.

I hope Bhen goes back to work....

[f7ben]

15 minutes ago, Snake said:

Sure. Do that.

You'll take your dog ass to work and like it.

You’re right...I was simply dreaming

[f7ben]

Just now, hayward said:

my gut tells me there's going to be an instant boom come may and june.  Not sure how long it'll last till the effects finally show up.

I hope Bhen goes back to work....

I never didn’t go to work

[Snake]

1 hour ago, f7ben said:

Fuck getting back to work

This country and our entire system is a Ponzi scheme designed to enrich the elites on the backs of our labor

I wish every person in the US would say 

Fuck You.....try and get rich without my labor

Noggin':

[$poorsledder$]

So when the numbers are crunched and after this is over we may end up having the same amount of deaths regardless if we open it up now or hibernate for another year?  

But I thought we had to stay inside until at least the end of November......

[racer254]

2 hours ago, f7ben said:

Fuck getting back to work

This country and our entire system is a Ponzi scheme designed to enrich the elites on the backs of our labor

I wish every person in the US would say 

Fuck You.....try and get rich without my labor

I wish you would say

FUCK YOU ... try and get rich without my TAXES. 

 

[Mainecat]

Opening up is going to expose the level of damage the virus has done to the service industry. More that 70% of restaurant customers won’t be back for a long time probably closing the doors of half the eateries in the country. It’s going to be disastrous for millions of Americans in the travel industry as well.

Maybe opening up in Buttwipe Kansas is OK but not for states with large cities still fighting the virus.

[Edmo]

8 minutes ago, Mainecat said:

Opening up is going to expose the level of damage the virus has done to the service industry. More that 70% of restaurant customers won’t be back for a long time probably closing the doors of half the eateries in the country. It’s going to be disastrous for millions of Americans in the travel industry as well.

Maybe opening up in Buttwipe Kansas is OK but not for states with large cities still fighting the virus.

People here like to eat out, both parents working and have money but very little time or desire to prepare dinner. Restaurants are always jammed. Sure some will go out of business, but I think the better ones will get back to normal soon.

[Cold War]

Talking 70 this weekend. Once the nice weather hits , people are going to be hanging out regardless of what is in effect.  Nice yesterday,  people gathered on their decks, lawns , driveways.  
Buddy just sent me Text.  Pool party this weekend!!!! 

[Edmo]

2 minutes ago, Cold War said:

Talking 70 this weekend. Once the nice weather hits , people are going to be hanging out regardless of what is in effect.  Nice yesterday,  people gathered on their decks, lawns , driveways.  
Buddy just sent me Text.  Pool party this weekend!!!! 

I see it here too. Everyone is going stir crazy. The wave of people saying “fuck it” is becoming larger every day. 

[Jimmy Snacks]

[Angry ginger]

3 hours ago, f7ben said:

Fuck getting back to work

This country and our entire system is a Ponzi scheme designed to enrich the elites on the backs of our labor

I wish every person in the US would say 

Fuck You.....try and get rich without my labor

   sure you go with that ever happening.  Everyday we trade our labor for pay,  don't like the pay find a different job,  can't find a different job that pays more or requires less work for the same money then it's a good exchange for you.  

[AKIQPilot]

1 hour ago, $poorsledder$ said:

So when the numbers are crunched and after this is over we may end up having the same amount of deaths regardless if we open it up now or hibernate for another year?  

But I thought we had to stay inside until at least the end of November......

Yep, that is quite likely true. Our biggest challenge was not overwhelming and collapsing the major hospitals and health care facilities around the country. It seems we have avoided that. Now its time to get moving toward business resumption and let this thing play out over the next year. 
 

A vaccine is a long ways out and even then many wont take it and it wont be effective for everyone. As a country we need to just work through this. 

[racer254]

Some stats from WIsconsin:

[Rod]

2 hours ago, AKIQPilot said:

Yep, that is quite likely true. Our biggest challenge was not overwhelming and collapsing the major hospitals and health care facilities around the country. It seems we have avoided that. Now its time to get moving toward business resumption and let this thing play out over the next year. 
 

A vaccine is a long ways out and even then many wont take it and it wont be effective for everyone. As a country we need to just work through this. 

Herd immunity is almost already reached 

if nearly 50% of the bronx tested positive then they basically all had it 

X amount of people are ready to die from a mild respiratory illness. If the Chinese virus gets them that just means the flu isn’t going to. 
 

open it all up. It’s already over. 

[Mainecat]

Send the kids back to school....the coast is clear!

[Rod]

4 minutes ago, Mainecat said:

Send the kids back to school....the coast is clear!

It always was for them. The chances of them even showing symptoms is almost zero. Getting them to achieve immunity is paramount 

[teamgreen02]

4 hours ago, Edmo said:

I see it here too. Everyone is going stir crazy. The wave of people saying “fuck it” is becoming larger every day. 

Yup, stores are packed and people are starting to go about their normal routines. Even my in-laws in their 60s wanted to come out for lunch last weekend.  Alot easier to shelter in place in March than it will be with the nice weather in May.

 

[racer254]

40 minutes ago, Mainecat said:

Send the kids back to school....the coast is clear!

Bring children into it and then go to the extreme.   Another desperation tactic when things don't go the way you want. 

When should we expect you to start talking about race?  LOL 

35 minutes ago, ACE said:

It always was for them. The chances of them even showing symptoms is almost zero. Getting them to achieve immunity is paramount