Mainecat Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 Morgan Stanley: If the trade war escalates, a recession will be here in 9 months Source: CNBC If the U.S. continues to raise a wall of tariffs on Chinese goods in the coming months and China responds, expect a global recession in three quarters, Morgan Stanley said Monday. “As we view the risk of further escalation as high, the risks to the global outlook are decidedly skewed to the downside,” Morgan Stanley chief economist Chetan Ahya said. The firm believes a global recession will come in about nine months if the trade war further escalates through the U.S. raising tariffs to 25% “on all imports from China for 4-6 months,” Ahya said. “We would see the global economy entering recession in three quarters,” he said in a note to investors. President Donald Trump on Thursday unexpectedly announced that, beginning Sept. 1, the U.S. will add levies of 10% on the remaining $300 billion in Chinese imports that had not previously faced duties. These new tariffs “raise downside risks significantly,” Ahya said. Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/05/morgan-stanley-escalating-trade-war-means-global-recession-is-coming.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snake Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 Like the 3 we were supposed to have? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Platinum Contributing Member Highmark Posted August 5, 2019 Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted August 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Snake said: Like the 3 we were supposed to have? I thought one was imminent just because of the tax cuts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edmo Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 We should just get along and let China eat our lunch. It’s the right thing to do!!!!!!!1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anler Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, Highmark said: I thought one was imminent just because of the tax cuts. I have work locked up thru next august. Cant speak for after that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DriftBusta Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snake said: Like the 3 we were supposed to have? Morgan Stanley has been predicting recession for a year. They are one of 10,000 opinions out there every day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DriftBusta Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 Just now, Edmo said: We should just get along and let China eat our lunch. It’s the right thing to do!!!!!!!1 Right?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anler Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 Just now, Edmo said: We should just get along and let China eat our lunch. It’s the right thing to do!!!!!!!1 I think there is more going on with China than just trade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edmo Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 9 minutes ago, DriftBusta said: Right?! I’ll bet anyone if we get a dem president in 2020 that supports getting tough on China MC will flip flop so fast he’ll hurt himself. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArcticCrusher Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 9 months huh, can't wait. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Platinum Contributing Member Jimmy Snacks Posted August 5, 2019 Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted August 5, 2019 13 minutes ago, Anler said: I think there is more going on with China than just trade. The whole deal with them and Iranian Oil is sure to tweak the fuck out of Trump....hopefully he stays the course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Member Kivalo Posted August 5, 2019 Gold Member Share Posted August 5, 2019 Probably trying to position for more government cheese. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anler Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Jimmy Snacks said: The whole deal with them and Iranian Oil is sure to tweak the fuck out of Trump....hopefully he stays the course. Kinda what I am getting at. We just sold a bunch of weapons to Taiwan. Me thinks someone is kicking the bee hive here. And not because of tariffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mainecat Posted August 5, 2019 Author Share Posted August 5, 2019 If anyone here thinks a 20% tariff on Chinese imports won’t have an effect on our economy your fuckin retarded. Add another 10% to that sept. 1 and we are cooked. Middle class America will stop buying and it’s over. Home sales will stop and bank foreclosures will finish it off. After Trumps 1.5 trillion tax giveaways there is no bailout money left. The fed is already giving money away. If your puffing your chests and saying look how great the market has done remember only 40% of Americans are invested in it. but hey what the fuck do I know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ford_428cj Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 25 minutes ago, Edmo said: We should just get along and let China eat our lunch. It’s the right thing to do!!!!!!!1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snake Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 14 minutes ago, Mainecat said: If anyone here thinks a 20% tariff on Chinese imports won’t have an effect on our economy your fuckin retarded. Add another 10% to that sept. 1 and we are cooked. Middle class America will stop buying and it’s over. Home sales will stop and bank foreclosures will finish it off. After Trumps 1.5 trillion tax giveaways there is no bailout money left. The fed is already giving money away. If your puffing your chests and saying look how great the market has done remember only 40% of Americans are invested in it. but hey what the fuck do I know. Is it quicker to New York or by bus? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Platinum Contributing Member Jimmy Snacks Posted August 5, 2019 Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted August 5, 2019 I’m no expert by any stretch but this Kyle Bass cat nails it IMO. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/07/25/kyle-bass-we-need-to-restructure-our-relationship-with-china.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teamgreen02 Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 1 hour ago, Highmark said: I thought one was imminent just because of the tax cuts. One was imminent the moment they found out Donald Trump won the election. Krugmen said the economy might not ever recover. 1 hour ago, DriftBusta said: Morgan Stanley has been predicting recession for a year. They are one of 10,000 opinions out there every day. Heard the same prediction made last year we would see a small turndown in 2019. OEM backlogs are down right now. Business investment is slowing down but consumer spending is still up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArcticCrusher Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 55 minutes ago, teamgreen02 said: One was imminent the moment they found out Donald Trump won the election. Krugmen said the economy might not ever recover. Heard the same prediction made last year we would see a small turndown in 2019. OEM backlogs are down right now. Business investment is slowing down but consumer spending is still up. We're still cranking on all cylinders as are all OEMs. Last Two years being the busiest in decades. Keep rolling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodtick Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 Orange man bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anler Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 6 minutes ago, Woodtick said: Orange man bad. No ur! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArcticCrusher Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/30/cramer-elizabeth-warren-would-be-tougher-on-china-than-trump.html?__twitter_impression=true&recirc=taboolainternal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anler Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 President Warren... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Platinum Contributing Member Jimmy Snacks Posted August 5, 2019 Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted August 5, 2019 8 minutes ago, ArcticCrusher said: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/30/cramer-elizabeth-warren-would-be-tougher-on-china-than-trump.html?__twitter_impression=true&recirc=taboolainternal 6 minutes ago, Anler said: President Warren... Dude has spit the bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlos Danger Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 19 minutes ago, Anler said: President Warren... Whatever that guy is smoking I want some. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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