Water levels in houston were 16 feet higher in the flood of 1935

[jtssrx]

Why Houston Flooding IsBlogger

Water levels were 16 feet higher in the flood of 1935

by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

In the context of climate change, is what we are seeing in Houston a new level of disaster which is becoming more common?

The flood disaster unfolding in Houston is certainly very unusual. But so are other natural weather disasters, which have always occurred and always will occur.

(By the way, making naturally-occurring severe weather seem unnatural is a favorite tactic of Al Gore, whose new movie & book An Inconvenient Sequel [ currently #21,168 in Kindle] is dismantled in my new e-book, An Inconvenient Deception [currently #399]).

Floods aren’t just due to weather

Major floods are difficult to compare throughout history because the ways in which we alter the landscape. For example, as cities like Houston expand over the years, soil is covered up by roads, parking lots, and buildings, with water rapidly draining off rather than soaking into the soil. The population of Houston is now ten times what it was in the 1920s. The Houston metroplex area has expanded greatly and the water drainage is basically in the direction of downtown Houston.

There have been many flood disasters in the Houston area, even dating to the mid-1800s when the population was very low. In December of 1935 a massive flood occurred in the downtown area as the water level height measured at Buffalo Bayou in Houston topped out at 54.4 feet.

Downtown Houston flood of 1935.

By way of comparison, as of 6:30 a.m. this (Monday) morning, the water level in the same location is at 38 feet, which is still 16 feet lower than in 1935. I’m sure that will continue to rise.

Are the rainfall totals unprecedented?

Even that question is difficult to answer. The exact same tropical system moving at, say, 15 mph might have produced the same total amount of rain, but it would have been spread over a wide area, maybe many states, with no flooding disaster. This is usually what happens with landfalling hurricanes.

Instead, Harvey stalled after it came ashore and so all of the rain has been concentrated in a relatively small portion of Texas around the Houston area. In both cases, the atmosphere produced the same amount of rain, but where the rain lands is very different. People like those in the Houston area don’t want all of the rain to land on them.

There is no aspect of global warming theory that says rain systems are going to be moving slower, as we are seeing in Texas. This is just the luck of the draw. Sometimes weather systems stall, and that sucks if you are caught under one. The same is true of high pressure areas; when they stall, a drought results.

Even with the system stalling, the greatest multi-day rainfall total as of 3 9 a.m. this Monday morning is just over 30 39.7 inches, with many locations recording over 20 inches. We should recall that Tropical Storm Claudette in 1979 (a much smaller and weaker system than Harvey) produced a 43 inch rainfall total in only 24 hours in Houston.

Was Harvey unprecedented in intensity?

In this case, we didn’t have just a tropical storm like Claudette, but a major hurricane, which covered a much larger area with heavy rain. Roger Pielke Jr. has pointed out that the U.S. has had only four Category 4 (or stronger) hurricane strikes since 1970, but in about the same number of years preceding 1970 there were 14 strikes. So we can’t say that we are experiencing more intense hurricanes in recent decades.

Going back even earlier, a Category 4 hurricane struck Galveston in 1900, killing between 6,000 and 12,000 people. That was the greatest natural disaster in U.S. history.

And don’t forget, we just went through an unprecedented length of time – almost 12 years – without a major hurricane (Cat 3 or stronger) making landfall in the U.S.

So what makes this event unprecedented?

The National Weather Service has termed the event unfolding in the Houston area as unprecedented. I’m not sure why. I suspect in terms of damage and number of people affected, that will be the case. But the primary reason won’t be because this was an unprecedented meteorological event.

If we are talking about the 100 years or so that we have rainfall records, then it might be that southeast Texas hasn’t seen this much total rain fall over a fairly wide area. At this point it doesn’t look like any rain gage locations will break the record for total 24 hour rainfall in Texas, or possibly even for storm total rainfall, but to have so large an area having over 20 inches is very unusual.

They will break records for their individual gage locations, but that’s the kind of record that is routinely broken somewhere anyway, like record high and low temperatures.

In any case, I’d be surprised if such a meteorological event didn’t happen in centuries past in this area, before we were measuring them.

And don’t pay attention to claims of 500 year flood events, which most hydrologists dislike because we don’t have enough measurements over time to determine such things, especially when they also depend on our altering of the landscape over time.

Bill Read, a former director of the National Hurricane Center was asked by a CNN news anchor whether he thought that Harvey was made worse because of global warming. Read’s response was basically, No.

“Unprecedented” doesn’t necessarily mean it represents a new normal. It can just be a rare combination of events. In 2005 the U.S. was struck by many strong hurricanes, and the NHC even ran out of names to give all of the tropical storms. Then we went almost 12 years without a major (Cat 3 or stronger) hurricane strike.

Weird stuff happens.

I remember many years ago in one of the NWS annual summaries of lightning deaths there was a golfer who was struck by lightning. While an ambulance transported the man to the hospital, the ambulance was stuck by lightning and it finished the poor fellow off.

There is coastal lake sediment evidence of catastrophic hurricanes which struck the Florida panhandle over 1,000 years ago, events which became less frequent in the most recent 1,000 years.

Weather disasters happen, with or without the help of humans.

 

 

Edited August 30, 2017 by jtssrx

[1trailmaker]

125cm (4ft)  of rain in a few spots is a fuck of alot for a few days

[jtssrx]

5 minutes ago, 1trailmaker said:

125cm (4ft)  of rain in a few spots is a fuck of alot for a few days

Crazy isnt it. Sad to i feel for everyone affected 

[1trailmaker]

2 minutes ago, jtssrx said:

Crazy isnt it. Sad to i feel for everyone affected 

another ton of rain tomorrow coming too,  all depends on the wind now as to where it hits

[jtssrx]

2 minutes ago, 1trailmaker said:

another ton of rain tomorrow coming too,  all depends on the wind now as to where it hits

Its the worst in recorded history no denying it. Its just a shame people are going to use this for political gain 

[AKIQPilot]

Good article. Lots of prayers going out to everyone in the greater Houston area. I have 18 facebook friends that currently live in houston and the surrounding area. All are posting that they are ok and the water is bad but they all say they will get through it ok. But they are saying the rain can stop any time now. Hahaha The rain has barely slowed down for almost 5 days. 

[ArcticCrusher]

4 minutes ago, AKIQPilot said:

Good article. Lots of prayers going out to everyone in the greater Houston area. I have 18 facebook friends that currently live in houston and the surrounding area. All are posting that they are ok and the water is bad but they all say they will get through it ok. But they are saying the rain can stop any time now. Hahaha The rain has barely slowed down for almost 5 days. 

I know lots in Houston and employ one.  The smart ones moved north some time ago.  Lol.

[AKIQPilot]

11 minutes ago, ArcticCrusher said:

I know lots in Houston and employ one.  The smart ones moved north some time ago.  Lol.

Hahah. Dont be fooled, there are still lots of smart people in the greater Houston area. The petrochemical and space industries employ some of the smartest people on this planet. 

At one time Houston was home to more multi millionaires that any other city on earth. Not sure if that is still the case but generally speaking multi millionairs are fairly smart people. 

[ArcticCrusher]

7 minutes ago, AKIQPilot said:

Hahah. Dont be fooled, there are still lots of smart people in the greater Houston area. The petrochemical and space industries employ some of the smartest people on this planet. 

At one time Houston was home to more multi millionaires that any other city on earth. Not sure if that is still the case but generally speaking multi millionairs are fairly smart people. 

I know, I do tons of work in that area and the Gulf coast.  It is what it is.

[xtralettucetomatoe580]

1 hour ago, jtssrx said:

Its the worst in recorded history no denying it. Its just a shame people are going to use this for political gain 

You do realize you are using this to further your political agenda that global warming is a farce right? You see that? You are literally making the claim that there has been worse as a pre-emptive response to those who will claim global warming. Actually, you've been doing it for days now. Where the left has really not said shit about it other than in response to you making wild hasty generalizations about this all. 

So yes, it is a shame that you are doing this. 

[Rod]

CNN is trash

[ActionfigureJoe]

those with higher incomes and resources will fair just fine. i doubt anyone is concerned about the multi millionaires. there's a large population in houston and smaller areas in texas that aren't in the same league. they lost everything. as far as the smart people moving....not everyone can just pull up stakes and move. 

[Snoslinger]

9 hours ago, xtralettucetomatoe580 said:

You do realize you are using this to further your political agenda that global warming is a farce right? You see that? You are literally making the claim that there has been worse as a pre-emptive response to those who will claim global warming. Actually, you've been doing it for days now. Where the left has really not said shit about it other than in response to you making wild hasty generalizations about this all. 

So yes, it is a shame that you are doing this. 

well done

[Snoslinger]

8/10 homeowners in Houston don't have flood insurance, so I read.

 

[DriftBusta]

9 hours ago, xtralettucetomatoe580 said:

You do realize you are using this to further your political agenda that global warming is a farce right? You see that? You are literally making the claim that there has been worse as a pre-emptive response to those who will claim global warming. Actually, you've been doing it for days now. Where the left has really not said shit about it other than in response to you making wild hasty generalizations about this all. 

So yes, it is a shame that you are doing this. 

I guess I missed it.  Yet I notice you glossed over all the attacks on Trump, everything from being there too early or too late, to what Melania is wearing for shoes.  Huh.

[T1R9sledder]

3 minutes ago, Snoslinger said:

8/10 homeowners in Houston don't have flood insurance, so I read.

 

That's probably the norm most places if you do not have to buy flood insurance. 

[DriftBusta]

25 minutes ago, Snoslinger said:

well done

Put your dick back in your pants dipshit.  

Edited August 30, 2017 by DriftBusta

[racer254]

22 minutes ago, Snoslinger said:

8/10 homeowners in Houston don't have flood insurance, so I read.

 

And?

[ICEMAN!]

It's too bad Houston wasn't closer to the edge of the earth.  The Army Corps of Engineers could just dig a canal l to channel the floodwaters off the edge.

[xtralettucetomatoe580]

37 minutes ago, DriftBusta said:

I guess I missed it.  Yet I notice you glossed over all the attacks on Trump, everything from being there too early or too late, to what Melania is wearing for shoes.  Huh.

I haven't seen any attacks. Other than making fun of Melania's heels or from the resident drool in his cup of porridge MC... But in all honesty that was kind of funny. Woman likes to stay lookin right, I don't blame her. 

[Jimmy Snacks]

10 minutes ago, xtralettucetomatoe580 said:

I haven't seen any attacks. Other than making fun of Melania's heels or from the resident drool in his cup of porridge MC... But in all honesty that was kind of funny. Woman likes to stay lookin right, I don't blame her. 

Yeah that was actually a rare funny from MC...I laughed. As for the rest I was watching Janice Dean this morning and we are all losing sight of the disaster outside of just Houston....small communities that are basically completely submerged and shelters that are now flooding. Also Greg makes a great point about people not being able to just pack up and go...so true and sad.

[Highmark]

11 hours ago, AKIQPilot said:

Good article. Lots of prayers going out to everyone in the greater Houston area. I have 18 facebook friends that currently live in houston and the surrounding area. All are posting that they are ok and the water is bad but they all say they will get through it ok. But they are saying the rain can stop any time now. Hahaha The rain has barely slowed down for almost 5 days. 

Glad to see the people you know are doing ok.   Our thoughts are with the people of Houston and those affected by Harvey.  Sadly I think the area's with major wind damage are getting overlooked.  

[snatchslayer]

1 hour ago, ICEMAN! said:

It's too bad Houston wasn't closer to the edge of the earth.  The Army Corps of Engineers could just dig a canal l to channel the floodwaters off the edge.

Or we could just put a lot of weight on one side and let it tip over and drain

[XC.Morrison]

3 hours ago, DriftBusta said:

I guess I missed it.  Yet I notice you glossed over all the attacks on Trump, everything from being there too early or too late, to what Melania is wearing for shoes.  Huh.

I watch a lot of mainstream media and haven't seen any of that going on.  I'm sure you'll be able to cherry pick an example or two but I'm not convinced there's a concerted effort to that effect.

[Snoslinger]

1 hour ago, XC.Morrison said:

I watch a lot of mainstream media and haven't seen any of that going on.  I'm sure you'll be able to cherry pick an example or two but I'm not convinced there's a concerted effort to that effect.

you're corresponding to a clown who worships the likes of savage, rush, hannity etc. of course they're going to find some wingnuts somewhere complaining about stupid shit and try to pass it off as mainstream media. they do it all the fucking time.

Edited August 30, 2017 by Snoslinger