Platinum Contributing Member Highmark Posted July 13, 2023 Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted July 13, 2023 Interesting take that many miss. Not exactly a middle of the road publication. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/04/trump-could-definitely-beat-biden.html It is easy to miss just how narrowly Trump lost his matchup against Biden. The Democrat won the popular vote by 4.5 percentage points and secured 36 more Electoral College votes than the 270 necessary. But his margins in the pivotal swing states were tiny. In the tipping-point state of Wisconsin, just 20,682 votes separated Biden from Trump. If Biden had won the popular vote by “only” 4 points, Trump likely would have won reelection. It’s possible the Electoral College is less biased against Democrats today than it was in 2020. The overturning of Roe v. Wade seems to have reminded some secular white voters in the Midwest why they used to oppose the party of Bible thumpers. In 2022, Democrats did better in key Michigan and Pennsylvania races than they did nationally. But, as a general rule, the most recent presidential election is a better guide to the geographic distribution of party support than the most recent midterm. Thus, a reasonable default assumption is that if Biden wins the popular vote by only 3 points next year, he will lose reelection. And Biden is much less popular now than he was on Election Day in 2020. His approval rating currently sits around 43 percent. As political scientist Ruy Texiera notes, the previous three incumbent presidents received only one to 2 percent more support in the popular vote than they did in approval polls. Currently, in surveys of a hypothetical 2020 election rematch, Biden leads Trump by an average of just 1.4 percentage points. In 2016, a 2-point popular-vote win was not enough to secure Hillary Clinton an Electoral College majority. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racer254 Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 I have been saying the same thing for years now. Only 50k votes changed this election. Now with Cocaine in the White House, biden's crime family, Laptop, Ukraine, Inflation, transgender BS. I think trump can win handily. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Member Stephen Hawking Posted July 13, 2023 Gold Member Share Posted July 13, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hayward Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 1 hour ago, racer254 said: I have been saying the same thing for years now. Only 50k votes changed this election. Now with Cocaine in the White House, biden's crime family, Laptop, Ukraine, Inflation, transgender BS. I think trump can win handily. I look around at society today, and I have to unfortunately disagree. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spin_dry Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 "Trump could beat Biden" Now there's something to brag about. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ckf Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, hayward said: I look around at society today, and I have to unfortunately disagree. Agreed. People need to try and take an unbiased look at where we are as a country instead of solely from a their parties perspective. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 1 minute ago, spin_dry said: "Trump could beat Biden" Now there's something to brag about. No shit. It's a sad outlook either way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racer254 Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, ckf said: Agreed. People need to try and take an unbiased look at where we are as a country instead of solely from a their parties perspective. Umm, but one political party is causing most of the misguided societal issues we have. It's an agenda being pushed solely by one side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mainecat Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 (edited) No wait till the trials. When all the prosecutors witnesses are Trumps former employees he’s cooked. Edited July 13, 2023 by Mainecat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ckf Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, racer254 said: Umm, but one political party is causing most of the misguided societal issues we have. It's an agenda being pushed solely by one side. That's YOUR opinion. I'm not saying that others don't agree with you, but that doesn't mean it is a fact. There are others that have options different than you. That doesn't make their beliefs facts either. We all know that large population areas control most of the votes in this country and they heavily favor the Dems. And Donald Trump on the ballot will bring out the Dems in large numbers IMO. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mainecat Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, ckf said: That's YOUR opinion. I'm not saying that others don't agree with you, but that doesn't mean it is a fact. There are others that have options different than you. That doesn't make their beliefs facts either. We all know that large population areas control most of the votes in this country and they heavily favor the Dems. And Donald Trump on the ballot will bring out the Dems in large numbers IMO. Especially women Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ckf Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 Just now, Mainecat said: Especially women Agreed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 1 hour ago, racer254 said: Umm, but one political party is causing most of the misguided societal issues we have. It's an agenda being pushed solely by one side. I think society causes most of the misguided issues not a political party. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crnr2Crnr Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 37 minutes ago, ckf said: Agreed. People need to try and take an unbiased look at where we are as a country instead of solely from a their parties perspective. as proven in a FS Poll... if we reelect Biden or Trump, America loses. I feel a lot more people (the silent, middle of the road) are coming to that conclusion. moderates are (like the last time) going to swing the next election. the vast majority of family, friends and colleagues I interact with on a regular basis that are capable of holding an adult conversation about politics seem to be expressing a similar sentiment... they don't want Biden and they don't want Trump even more. as I see things... nothing positive for the country can come from reelecting either of them, just more of the same division we've been experiencing. if it boils down to Trump and Biden... it's lose/lose 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racer254 Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 27 minutes ago, Mainecat said: Especially women And just remember, the dems are the one pushing transgenders to be allowed to compete in womens sports. Dems are the ones that won't define what it means to be a woman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racer254 Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 27 minutes ago, HSR said: I think society causes most of the misguided issues not a political party. Take a look at the makeup of the city of Washington DC and compare that to AnyTown, USA. That will show you why we have the societal issues we do. And remember Washington DC votes mainly Democrat. No, society is being led by issues pushed in Washington. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DriftBusta Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 11 minutes ago, Crnr2Crnr said: as proven in a FS Poll... if we reelect Biden or Trump, America loses. I feel a lot more people (the silent, middle of the road) are coming to that conclusion. moderates are (like the last time) going to swing the next election. the vast majority of family, friends and colleagues I interact with on a regular basis that are capable of holding an adult conversation about politics seem to be expressing a similar sentiment... they don't want Biden and they don't want Trump even more. as I see things... nothing positive for the country can come from reelecting either of them, just more of the same division we've been experiencing. if it boils down to Trump and Biden... it's lose/lose So much to unpack there. First off, FS poll? Really? You don’t seem to want to accept reality that those two men are the most likely to be our choices next election. And if you accept the reality, then our government needs the corruption confronted and reformed, Trump is the only choice. The only thing you’ve gotten correct, there is that the moderates and middle of the road are likely to be the deciding factor. I am confident that they are waking up to just how bad it is and know Biden has got to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crnr2Crnr Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, DriftBusta said: So much to unpack there. First off, FS poll? Really? You don’t seem to want to accept reality that those two men are the most likely to be our choices next election. And if you accept the reality, then our government needs the corruption confronted and reformed, Trump is the only choice. The only thing you’ve gotten correct, there is that the moderates and middle of the road are likely to be the deciding factor. I am confident that they are waking up to just how bad it is and know Biden has got to go. yes, it's a simple poll amongst our piers. you need to come to the reality that the majority of the country rejected Trump in 20 and is likely to reject him again. it's a long road to the nominations... and the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Platinum Contributing Member Highmark Posted July 13, 2023 Author Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted July 13, 2023 (edited) By far and away Trump has went against his own party more than any candidate in a long time from either party. Trump said he will not sign a national abortion ban and while I maybe the most anti abortion person on this board I agree....leave it with the states. While pro military (and military spending) he's not the typical war hawk Republican. He stands up to NATO. He's way more firm on illegal immigration that the GOP use to be. Yes they have now made it their issue but they use to love the cheap labor. Look no further than the Chamber of Commerce. He's far more pro America on trade than the GOP has been historically. Many of these and more are reasons he won in 2016. Hate him or not but he has connected with the working class far better than most past GOP candidates. He also has made significant gains with minorities over past GOP candidates. Those two reasons alone give him a chance in 24. 'Ol lovable Joe may have worn out his welcome as well. Edited July 13, 2023 by Highmark 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hayward Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 1 hour ago, racer254 said: Umm, but one political party is causing most of the misguided societal issues we have. It's an agenda being pushed solely by one side. Agreed. It’s obvious, unless you’re one of them! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teamgreen02 Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 AZ, Biden by 11k GA, Biden by 12k WI, Biden by 20k If Trump flips those and carries the states he did before, he wins with 272. Keep in mind, the 2020 census changes will swing more votes to republican states. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Platinum Contributing Member Highmark Posted July 13, 2023 Author Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted July 13, 2023 13 minutes ago, teamgreen02 said: AZ, Biden by 11k GA, Biden by 12k WI, Biden by 20k If Trump flips those and carries the states he did before, he wins with 272. Keep in mind, the 2020 census changes will swing more votes to republican states. Yep....they dismissed him in 2016 and look what happened. I wouldn't bet money he would win but saying there is just a small chance isn't looking realistically at the numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rod Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 Trump cooks pull it off. Especially with the DNC going full retarded and old Joe is quickly becoming a vegetable Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teamgreen02 Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 2020 to 2024 changes, R+3 in this scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 On 7/10/2023 at 7:21 AM, DriftBusta said: Oh really? Take a poll and lets see. 57 minutes ago, DriftBusta said: First off, FS poll? Really? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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