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Could Donald Trump actually flip California?


Snake

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Here is Mr. Black’s full statement to RedState:

On January 20th 2017, I assumed that Trump would win reelection after normal Americans witnessed the hysterics of the Women’s March and subsequent displays of irrationality.

But when Trump made good on most of his promises — all the while unruffled by the Category 5 media sh*t-storm raging around him — it seemed like the impossible was within reach: WINNING CALIFORNIA. And that was the initial motivation behind the sign.

The sign served two purposes. It was a psychological warfare operation designed to counter the psychological warfare that Newsom, Garcetti and the Democrat-run California government has been running since the lockdown. Putting the word “TRUMP” on a hillside over the 405 — itself a symbol of beauty, aggravation and dysfunction — was intended to let the progressive Eloi of Los Angeles know that dissidents — MOTIVATED dissidents — live among them.

It was also a signal to the war-weary AMERICANS here behind enemy lines that they are not alone. That they are on the side of fun and energy. And that they should GO OUT AND VOTE (for Trump, if that wasn’t clear).

“Mr. Black”

 

Mr.Black went on to tell us the details of the sign’s construction, emphasizing that the site is private land owned by a charity.

The sign was 20′ X 70′.

The letters were made from white poly tarps stretched across frames made from fence and tent poles. They were secured to wooden receivers that had been installed and leveled using rebar stakes a few nights prior. The letters were secured using solid supports and guy-wires made of paracord and tightened with ratchet straps attached to tent stakes in the ground.

Each letter was transported to the site as a deconstructed bundle.

The crew consisted of seven men, one videographer and a driver who delivered the men (in the back of a cube truck) to the head of the trail leading to the site and then picked them up after the job was complete.

The caper began at 9pm and was completed by 3:30am.

The site is private land owned by the Aga Khan Foundation, a Pakistani charity and overlooks the Leo Baeck Temple, the 405 freeway and the Getty Center beyond.

The planners initially wanted to build the letters before the 2018 election, but chose to wait for the 2020 election instead.

If you had asked me in 2018 if I thought there was any chance in hell Trump could flip the Golden State I’d have said you were out of your mind for even suggesting it. In March of this year I changed my mind, and published an article predicting the possibility of a flip for Trump. That was before lockdowns, before school closures, before Uber and Lyft were threatening to leave the state, before businesses closed, before riots and looting, before Defund the Police…even before all these horrors California was feeling ripe for a flip, mainly due to the horrific AB5 law that decimated the gig economy and eliminated nearly 300 job categories overnight. I’d never seen so many true blue Democrats ready to cross the aisle.

 

It’s only gotten worse here. I’ve never seen it like this in my 12 years as a Californian, and my friends who are native to this state say the same thing. Watching this ad gave me the chills. I do believe there’s a path for Trump to flip this state. Perhaps it is a steep climb, but I no longer consider it an impossibility.

https://redstate.com/kiradavis/2020/10/30/group-405-trump-sign-campaign-ad-n272061

Edited by Snake
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/30/polling-average-four-days-before-election/6082915002/

Polling averages show Trump gaining on Biden in most swing states. Will it be enough?

William Cummings
USA TODAY
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0:20
18:27
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Election Day is four days away, and more than half the number of Americans who voted in 2016 have already cast their ballots, as polls continue to show Democratic nominee Joe Biden with a large national lead over President Donald Trump, along with a smaller advantage in several key states. 

The deadline for early voting ends Friday in several states where the race is tight, including Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Texas – and on Saturday in the key states of Florida and North Carolina. Though early turnout appears to favor Democrats in many states, Republicans are gaining ground quickly in Florida and other early voting states. 

As the race enters the home stretch, the USA TODAY average of averages, which is based on data from RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight, finds Biden up 8.3 percentage points over Trump nationally. That is nearly a full point higher than Biden was at the end of September but 2 points lower than the 10.1-point edge he held in mid-October. 

The polls were also shifting in Trump's favor ahead of his upset win over Hillary Clinton in 2016, but that trend was more pronounced and her lead was not as big as Biden's heading into the election. Four days before Election Day that year, Clinton's average lead was about 2.1 percentage points. 

If the states end up breaking according to their current polling averages, and assuming the non-swing states go the way they did in 2016, Biden would win decisively in the Electoral College, even if he lost Ohio, which is tied. But Biden's polling average advantage is greater than 5 points in just four of twelve swing states and the race will hinge on what happens in the races where Biden's margin is thin enough to leave the candidates in a virtual dead heat. 

Last week in polls:Trump gains in 9 of 12 swing states, but Biden still leads in 10 of them

National average  

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 51.7%, Trump 43.4% (Biden +8.3)

On Monday: Biden 51.4%, Trump 42.9% (Biden +8.6)

Net change: Trump +0.3

  • RCP: Biden 51.3%, Trump 43.5%
  • FiveThirtyEight: Biden 52.0%, Trump 43.2% 

Four days before 2016 election: Clinton +2.1

Swing state averages 

Arizona: Biden +1.4

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.8%, Trump 46.4%

Monday: Biden 48.8%, Trump 46.1% (Biden +2.7) 

Net change: Trump +1.3

Florida: Biden +1.7

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.6%, Trump 46.9%

Monday: Biden 48.9%, Trump 47.0% (Biden +1.9)

Net change: Trump +0.2

Georgia: Biden +1.0

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.0%, Trump 47.0% 

Monday: Biden 47.6%, Trump 47.1% (Biden +0.5)

Net change: Biden +0.5

Iowa: Biden +0.6

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.2%, Trump 46.6%

Monday: Biden 47.4%, Trump 46.3% (Biden +1.1)

Net change: Trump +0.5

Michigan: Biden +7.3

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.4%, Trump 43.1%

Monday: Biden 50.5%, Trump 42.7% (Biden +7.8)

Net change: Trump +0.5

Minnesota: Biden +6.4

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.1%, Trump 42.7%

Monday: Biden 49.4%, Trump 42.3% (Biden +7.1)

Net change: Trump +0.7

Nevada: Biden +5.1

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.1%, Trump 44.0%

Monday: Biden 49.6%, Trump 43.8% (Biden +5.8)

Net change: Trump +0.7

North Carolina: Biden +1.3

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.6%, Trump 47.3%

Monday: Biden 49.1%, Trump 47.2% (Biden +1.9)

Net change: Trump +0.6

Ohio: Tie

USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 46.4%, Biden 46.4% 

Monday: Trump 47.4%, Biden 46.4% (Trump +1.0)

Net change: Biden +1.0

Pennsylvania: Biden +4.7

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.0, Trump 45.3%

Monday: Biden 50.0%, Trump 44.6% (Biden +5.4)

Net change: Trump +0.7

Texas: Trump +1.8

USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 48.1%, Biden 46.3% 

Monday: Trump 48.1%, Biden 46.8% (Trump +1.7)

Net change: Trump +0.1

Wisconsin: Biden +7.9

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 51.1%, Trump 43.2%

Monday: Biden 50.1%, Trump 44.4% (Biden +5.7)

Net change: Biden +2.2

Edited by XCR1250
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2 minutes ago, racinfarmer said:

Exactly.

I'll challenge that slightly by saying one should vote for change by voting for Biden, is also insanity.

Biden is a terrible candidate 

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24 minutes ago, frenchy said:

I've read they are trending hard for trump lately in TX

Thats what family down there says as well but the confidence isnt that great. 

 

 

Edited by old indy
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1 hour ago, frenchy said:

I've read they are trending hard for trump lately in TX

I can't wait until the election.  I'm either going to be holding both middle fingers in the air yelling "I told you so!", or I"m going to be holding both middle fingers in the air yelling, "Fuck you, die mother fuckers!"  :lol:  

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I might take Wednesday morning off.  If it's clear Trump is winning on Tuesday night, I'm getting drunk.  If it's clear Biden is winning on Tuesday night, I'm getting drunk.  If there's no clear winner, I'm drinking the rest of the week.

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2 minutes ago, Matt said:

I might take Wednesday morning off.  If it's clear Trump is winning on Tuesday night, I'm getting drunk.  If it's clear Biden is winning on Tuesday night, I'm getting drunk.  If there's no clear winner, I'm drinking the rest of the week.

Pretty much my world view as well.  Lets just get through this breathless drama.  :lol:   :bc: 

Edited by DriftBusta
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9 hours ago, Polaris 550 said:

OMG!! If Biden gets in, he could impose a WEALTH TAX. 

So what'll that be, about $20.00 total on your vast fortune of old stained playboys and a condemned  mobile home you drug out to some junk property in New Hamptardville?

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9 minutes ago, GGNHL said:

So what'll that be, about $20.00 total on your vast fortune of old stained playboys and a condemned  mobile home you drug out to some junk property in New Hamptardville?

:owned: BIGLY!

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