How will Trump policies affect trade?

[racer254]

17 minutes ago, Mainecat said:

If the EPA goes away as Trump promised I could just dump wastes in the rivers or just bury it.

What do your state laws say about that?  And why do you need the epa to tell you NOT to do this?

Edited November 16, 2016 by racer254

[ArcticCrusher]

5 minutes ago, Highmark said:

Not saying its not true but you got any links to that claim?

Modern coal plants are doing much much better with pollutants, ain't nobody gonna change that.

 

[02sled]

6 minutes ago, Highmark said:

Not saying its not true but you got any links to that claim?

We obviously have our own sources that are of concern as well. Didn't spend a lot of time looking but here is one where the first line is....

Smog in Ontario is usually the result of the migration of pollutants from the United States combining with unfavourable weather patterns. There are, however, local sources of pollution that can contribute to the severity of smog events.

http://www.airqualityontario.com/science/transboundary.php

and then Windsor getting the cross border pollution

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/wayne-county-air-pollution-windsor-1.3543942

[xtralettucetomatoe580]

2 hours ago, revkevsdi said:

If he goes ahead with 35-45% tariffs on China then basically the gloves are off.

He also wants to renegotiate Nafta and won't ratify TPP.

If he also bails on the Paris climate agreement then things will get interesting. 

Why wouldn't the signatories to the Paris deal put Tariffs on goods from Countries that are not part of the agreement? I've thought for years we should have very strong legislation on manufacturing to protect our environment but force other places (india and China ) to manufacture under the same conditions or face high tariffs. With so many countries signing on in Paris, it makes for a very large trading block that the US could conceivably be left out of.

Timing is pretty decent too. Alternative energy is staring to become competitive. 

I'm pretty sure China is in a lot better bargaining position than they were 15 years ago. They have a growing middle class.

What would happen if Trump plays hardball with everyone on all of the above?

I don't know how tough Trudeau will be but considering his old man was a bit of a Dick to the U.S. at times, maybe his son will play the same kind of games. If Trumps wants to attack the easy stuff like lumber, he'd be an idiot not to renegotiate the stuff that isn't a great deal for Canada.

I didn't vote for Trudeau but now I'm glad he is in power and not Harper.

 

The problem is China operates on a dirty float currency. There is nothing that stops them from devaluing to match whatever we do in terms of tariffs. That money coming in from exports they switch over to US dollars and devalue their currency further in order to ensure that they are the more competitive in terms of exports. It is very hard to beat them in the export game without restricting first where Americans can buy. We are not and should not be about that. As long as China is not forced to play by free floating currency rules that the rest of the the developed world does, it is going to be very hard to have a profound effect on manufacturing here.
 

A trade imbalance in their favor should even out over time. It is just common sense. If you are a low priced seller, you export more, you have more money coming in, prices rise as standards of living rise, your exports slow down, and you reach equilibrium. The problem is they keep prices down with their money supply. This is going to be the big problem for them in the coming years. Their citizens are pissed. How that works out for us is yet to be seen. Can manufacturing come back and NX rise if China is forced to a market equilibrium with their currency? I think yes, but to a great extent would be hopeful. The next country up just fills their void. China CANNOT maintain their export level or currency valuation level. 

[revkevsdi]

5 minutes ago, xtralettucetomatoe580 said:

The problem is China operates on a dirty float currency. There is nothing that stops them from devaluing to match whatever we do in terms of tariffs. That money coming in from exports they switch over to US dollars and devalue their currency further in order to ensure that they are the more competitive in terms of exports. It is very hard to beat them in the export game without restricting first where Americans can buy. We are not and should not be about that. As long as China is not forced to play by free floating currency rules that the rest of the the developed world does, it is going to be very hard to have a profound effect on manufacturing here.
 

A trade imbalance in their favor should even out over time. It is just common sense. If you are a low priced seller, you export more, you have more money coming in, prices rise as standards of living rise, your exports slow down, and you reach equilibrium. The problem is they keep prices down with their money supply. This is going to be the big problem for them in the coming years. Their citizens are pissed. How that works out for us is yet to be seen. Can manufacturing come back and NX rise if China is forced to a market equilibrium with their currency? I think yes, but to a great extent would be hopeful. The next country up just fills their void. China CANNOT maintain their export level or currency valuation level. 

China has a lot of problems. Their pollution is over the top. Their citizens will be paying for that for years to come. 

I don't believe claims of lowering emissions any more than I would trust investing in their stock market. 

But if it comes to butting heads with Trump, China may not give a shit about the outcome as much not seen to be rolling over.

I think with Trump in charge they will have Europe on their side in Trade deals. 

If they can claim the high road regarding the Climate agreement then the US may not have many supporters.

 

[revkevsdi]

People who say Trudeau is out of his depth dealing with Trump may be surprised.

What does Trudeau have to lose by playing hardball? 

If he caves to Trump he looks weak. If he goes toe to toe and they scrap NAFTA etc. most people will blame Trump.

There are a lot of people who are against Trade deals and against pipelines. If Trudeau bails on those and can blame Trump then he wins some voters without losing others. 

 

[Rod]

1 hour ago, 02sled said:

Wrong... we just need better representation. The U.S. needs to do a better job on air pollution. A huge amount of the pollution we deal with comes from American coal fired plants blowing north.

And do what... We're a carbon sink as it is. 

[ArcticCrusher]

23 minutes ago, revkevsdi said:

People who say Trudeau is out of his depth dealing with Trump may be surprised.

What does Trudeau have to lose by playing hardball? 

If he caves to Trump he looks weak. If he goes toe to toe and they scrap NAFTA etc. most people will blame Trump.

There are a lot of people who are against Trade deals and against pipelines. If Trudeau bails on those and can blame Trump then he wins some voters without losing others. 

 

That is the stance he really needs to take, but Trudeau is spineless and his team is even weaker than he is.

Go Trudeau.

[spin_dry]

The issue is that trump has said so many things that no one really knows where he stands on anything. hopefully he'll form a coherent message and stop the chaos. 

[Mainecat]

1 hour ago, Highmark said:

Completely depends on the situation.

For example I would focus on balance first.   If our economy is x and say China is y then the trade coming in needs to reflect that.   If not a tariff can be applied so its more balanced.  

Take TPP.   If we are only going to take goods in from one of them and they will not be taking an equal (based off economy) back then a tariff is applied the next few years.  

We are a nation of consumption, no way its every going to be perfect but we need to be able to sell our goods in the places we take them from at least to a size of economy balance.

Tariffs need to be pro rated, ranked on where the goods come from. China may warrant the highest tariff.

[spin_dry]

1 hour ago, racer254 said:

What do your state laws say about that?  And why do you need the epa to tell you NOT to do this?

State enviromental laws don't work in an industrial competitive enviroment. Nixon realized this. 

[Skidooski]

25 minutes ago, spin_dry said:

The issue is that trump has said so many things that no one really knows where he stands on anything. hopefully he'll form a coherent message and stop the chaos.

That's what I'm thinking as well and it will take time to see exactly what unfolds from him contradicting himself throughout his whole campaign.

[02sled]

Speculation as an arm chair critic of what if anything somebody else may or may not do is really easy. Critiquing what they have done is more relevant. Personally I will wait to see what does or doesn't happen and who does or doesn't do what.

[BOHICA]

35 minutes ago, Mainecat said:

Tariffs need to be pro rated, ranked on where the goods come from. China may warrant the highest tariff.

What products would you put a tariff on from China???  Just a blanket Tariff on all products?

[02sled]

2 minutes ago, BOHICA said:

What products would you put a tariff on from China???  Just a blanket Tariff on all products?

Cost of most products would go up since even a lot of what is "made" in NA consists of components which are "made" in China and then assembled / made in NA

[xtralettucetomatoe580]

1 hour ago, Mainecat said:

Tariffs need to be pro rated, ranked on where the goods come from. China may warrant the highest tariff.

Lol what? Umm no. Tariffs are not designed to PUNISH countries. They are designed to help domestic companies who don't have the competitive advantage. Using them as a punishment is a real good way to send relations into the shitter and start saber rattling. Which I am sure you would love... 

[racer254]

1 hour ago, spin_dry said:

State enviromental laws don't work in an industrial competitive enviroment. Nixon realized this. 

It's amazing what the liberal agenda can do with a government agency.  They love to abuse the power.

[Anler]

4 hours ago, revkevsdi said:

If he goes ahead with 35-45% tariffs on China then basically the gloves are off.

He also wants to renegotiate Nafta and won't ratify TPP.

If he also bails on the Paris climate agreement then things will get interesting. 

Why wouldn't the signatories to the Paris deal put Tariffs on goods from Countries that are not part of the agreement? I've thought for years we should have very strong legislation on manufacturing to protect our environment but force other places (india and China ) to manufacture under the same conditions or face high tariffs. With so many countries signing on in Paris, it makes for a very large trading block that the US could conceivably be left out of.

Timing is pretty decent too. Alternative energy is staring to become competitive. 

I'm pretty sure China is in a lot better bargaining position than they were 15 years ago. They have a growing middle class.

What would happen if Trump plays hardball with everyone on all of the above?

I don't know how tough Trudeau will be but considering his old man was a bit of a Dick to the U.S. at times, maybe his son will play the same kind of games. If Trumps wants to attack the easy stuff like lumber, he'd be an idiot not to renegotiate the stuff that isn't a great deal for Canada.

I didn't vote for Trudeau but now I'm glad he is in power and not Harper.

 

Bullshit. We are the largest end user in the world. intnl corps moved to those areas to lower costs and sell their goods back here. This will get everyone playing ball at a close level and make us more competitive

[revkevsdi]

8 hours ago, Anler said:

Bullshit. We are the largest end user in the world. intnl corps moved to those areas to lower costs and sell their goods back here. This will get everyone playing ball at a close level and make us more competitive

Unless you waited too long. Maybe you are 300 million people whose spending is starting to wane. When compared to 1 billion chinese and 1 billion Indians who don't already have a basement full of more shit than they know what to do with.

China was trying to kick start its' middle class. They bought the business from the West in order to find out how to make things. Now they have all of the manufacturing in China, all the technology and machinery paid for by the West. What if they decide to tell the West to go fuck themselves and take over the factories for themselves?

People in India are quickly becoming wealthy by learning to manufacture. How many parts of your car are now coming from India? At least a year ago I heard a man from India talk about Indian entrepreneurs. He said that 10 years ago their dream was to go to the US and make it big. Now their dream is to stay in India, employ their own people and make it big. 

So if Tariffs from Trump cut into their profits too much, they may just say fuck it and concentrate on their own markets. 

[revkevsdi]

10 hours ago, ArcticCrusher said:

That is the stance he really needs to take, but Trudeau is spineless and his team is even weaker than he is.

Go Trudeau.

Not sure why you're laughing at Trudeau. You probably thought he had as much chance of winning as I did. 

[Momorider]

17 minutes ago, revkevsdi said:

Unless you waited too long. Maybe you are 300 million people whose spending is starting to wane. When compared to 1 billion chinese and 1 billion Indians who don't already have a basement full of more shit than they know what to do with.

China was trying to kick start its' middle class. They bought the business from the West in order to find out how to make things. Now they have all of the manufacturing in China, all the technology and machinery paid for by the West. What if they decide to tell the West to go fuck themselves and take over the factories for themselves?

People in India are quickly becoming wealthy by learning to manufacture. How many parts of your car are now coming from India? At least a year ago I heard a man from India talk about Indian entrepreneurs. He said that 10 years ago their dream was to go to the US and make it big. Now their dream is to stay in India, employ their own people and make it big. 

So if Tariffs from Trump cut into their profits too much, they may just say fuck it and concentrate on their own markets. 

Good then we can make our own shit  it's not like we don't know how 

[revkevsdi]

8 hours ago, Momorider said:

Good then we can make our own shit  it's not like we don't know how 

can't wait to drive a car like they made in the 70's again. 

[racer254]

25 minutes ago, revkevsdi said:

can't wait to drive a car like they made in the 70's again. 

You mean like those muscle cars that are fetching 10 times what they cost new?

[ArcticCrusher]

9 hours ago, revkevsdi said:

Unless you waited too long. Maybe you are 300 million people whose spending is starting to wane. When compared to 1 billion chinese and 1 billion Indians who don't already have a basement full of more shit than they know what to do with.

China was trying to kick start its' middle class. They bought the business from the West in order to find out how to make things. Now they have all of the manufacturing in China, all the technology and machinery paid for by the West. What if they decide to tell the West to go fuck themselves and take over the factories for themselves?

People in India are quickly becoming wealthy by learning to manufacture. How many parts of your car are now coming from India? At least a year ago I heard a man from India talk about Indian entrepreneurs. He said that 10 years ago their dream was to go to the US and make it big. Now their dream is to stay in India, employ their own people and make it big. 

So if Tariffs from Trump cut into their profits too much, they may just say fuck it and concentrate on their own markets. 

I know of a few companies where that happened.  More of a co-venture on manufacturing and then a fall out.  For the most part, they only want the Chinese market since that is where the major growth and sales are, the USA and others are not really that important.

[ArcticCrusher]

9 hours ago, revkevsdi said:

Not sure why you're laughing at Trudeau. You probably thought he had as much chance of winning as I did. 

Its hard not to since he is a stuttering idiot, not to offend people who stutter.  I knew he had a chance of winning, just look at Ontario and who they elected Premier.