The Grim Truth About the “Swedish Model”

[spin_dry]

As the coronavirus pandemic has swept the planet, Sweden has stood out among Western democracies by pursuing a "low-scale" lockdown. Whether this approach speaks to a unique strength of Swedish society, as opposed to bad judgment, can be determined by comparing Sweden's COVID-19 rate with its neighbors'.

Hans BergstromApr 17, 2020

STOCKHOLM – Does Sweden’s decision to spurn a national lockdown offer a distinct way to fight COVID-19 while maintaining an open society? The country’s unorthodox response to the coronavirus is popular at home and has won praise in some quarters abroad. But it also has contributed to one of the world’s highest COVID-19 death rates, exceeding that of the United States.

In Stockholm, bars and restaurants are filled with people enjoying the spring sun after a long, dark winter. Schools and gyms are open. Swedish officials have offered public-health advice but have imposed few sanctions. No official guidelines recommend that people wear masks.

During the pandemic’s early stages, the government and most commentators proudly embraced this “Swedish model,” claiming that it was built on Swedes’ uniquely high levels of “trust” in institutions and in one another. Prime Minister Stefan Löfven made a point of appealing to Swedes’ self-discipline, expecting them to act responsibly without requiring orders from authorities.

According to the World Values Survey, Swedes do tend to display a unique combination of trust in public institutions and extreme individualism. As sociologist Lars Trägårdh has put it, every Swede carries his own policeman on his shoulder. 

But let’s not turn causality on its head. The government did not consciously design a Swedish model for confronting the pandemic based on trust in the population’s ingrained sense of civic responsibility. Rather, actions were shaped by bureaucrats and then defended after the fact as a testament to Swedish virtue.

In practice, the core task of managing the outbreak fell to a single man: state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell at the National Institute of Public Health. Tegnell approached the crisis with his own set of strong convictions about the virus, believing that it would not spread from China, and later, that it would be enough to trace individual cases coming from abroad. Hence, the thousands of Swedish families returning from late-February skiing in the Italian Alps were strongly advised to return to work and school if not visibly sick, even if family members were infected. Tegnell argued that there were no signs of community transmission in Sweden, and therefore no need for more general mitigation measures. Despite Italy’s experience, Swedish ski resorts remained open for vacationing and partying Stockholmers.

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Between the lines, Tegnell indicated that eschewing draconian policies to stop the spread of the virus would enable Sweden gradually to achieve herd immunity. This strategy, he stressed, would be more sustainable for society.

Through it all, Sweden’s government remained passive. That partly reflects a unique feature of the country’s political system: a strong separation of powers between central government ministries and independent agencies. And, in “the fog of war,” it was also convenient for Löfven to let Tegnell’s agency take charge. Its seeming confidence in what it was doing enabled the government to offload responsibility during weeks of uncertainty. Moreover, Löfven likely wanted to demonstrate his trust in “science and facts,” by not – like US President Donald Trump – challenging his experts.

It should be noted, though, that the state epidemiologist’s policy choice has been strongly criticized by independent experts in Sweden. Some 22 of the country’s most prominent professors in infectious diseases and epidemiology published a commentaryin Dagens Nyheter calling on Tegnell to resign and appealing to the government to take a different course of action.

By mid-March, and with wide community spread, Löfven was forced to take a more active role. Since then, the government has been playing catch-up. From March 29, it prohibited public gatherings of more than 50 people, down from 500, and added sanctions for noncompliance. Then, from April 1, it barred visits to nursing homes, after it had become clear that the virus had hit around half of Stockholm’s facilities for the elderly. 

Sweden’s approach turned out to be misguided for at least three reasons. However virtuous Swedes may be, there will always be free riders in any society, and when it comes to a highly contagious disease, it doesn’t take many to cause major harm. Moreover, Swedish authorities only gradually became aware of the possibility of asymptomatic transmission, and that infected individuals are most contagious before they start showing symptoms. And, third, the composition of the Swedish population has changed.

After years of extremely high immigration from Africa and the Middle East, 25% of Sweden’s population – 2.6 million of a total population of 10.2 million – is of recent non-Swedish descent. The share is even higher in the Stockholm region. Immigrants from Somalia, Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan are highly overrepresented among COVID-19 deaths. This has been attributed partly to a lack of information in immigrants’ languages. But a more important factor seems to be the housing density in some immigrant-heavy suburbs, enhanced by closer physical proximity between generations.

It is too soon for a full reckoning of the effects of the “Swedish model.” The COVID-19 death rate is nine times higher than in Finland, nearly five times higher than in Norway, and more than twice as high as in Denmark. To some degree, the numbers might reflect Sweden’s much larger immigrant population, but the stark disparities with its Nordic neighbors are nonetheless striking. Denmark, Norway, and Finland all imposed rigid lockdown policies early on, with strong, active political leadership.

Now that COVID-19 is running rampant through nursing homes and other communities, the Swedish government has had to backpedal. Others who may be tempted by the “Swedish model” should understand that a defining feature of it is a higher death toll.

As the COVID-19 pandemic escalates, and its effects reverberate around the world, Project Syndicate is delivering the expert scientific, economic, and political insights that people need. For more than 25 years, we have been guided by a simple credo: All people deserve access to a broad range of views by the world's foremost leaders and thinkers on the issues, events, and forces shaping their lives. In this crisis, that mission is more important than ever – and we remain committed to fulfilling it.

But there is no doubt that the intensifying crisis puts us, like so many other organizations, under growing strain.

[racinfarmer]

I was expecting something totally different.

[spin_dry]

5 minutes ago, racinfarmer said:

I was expecting something totally different.

Basically Sweden failed to protect the most vulnerable in their society and are now trying to rebrand the disaster. 

[AKIQPilot]

Time will tell but as this article clearly points out, Sweden is not doing near as well as its nordic neighbors at combating the CV. 

[racinfarmer]

5 minutes ago, spin_dry said:

Basically Sweden failed to protect the most vulnerable in their society and are now trying to rebrand the disaster. 

I was expecting something more like this:

[AKIQPilot]

Just now, racinfarmer said:

I was expecting something more like this:

What a beautiful young lady. 

[Edmo]

1 hour ago, AKIQPilot said:

Time will tell but as this article clearly points out, Sweden is not doing near as well as its nordic neighbors at combating the CV. 

The question is are we just prolonging the inevitable here. Their numbers look high but in the end may be similar to others.  

[Snake]

12 minutes ago, Edmo said:

The question is are we just prolonging the inevitable here. Their numbers look high but in the end may be similar to others.  

Imagine living through the high line on the graph. Really don't care to see that on the news.

[DriftBusta]

4 minutes ago, Snake said:

Imagine living through the high line on the graph. Really don't care to see that on the news.

That's the hard reality, we have almost 50k deaths, and that's after 6 weeks of the country being shut down.  No one can put a number on how many dead there would have been if nothing was done.  Nursing home here had 30 deaths due to Covid.  Soldiers Home in Holyoke had over 50 deaths.  Its a bad bitch to old people and those with health issues.

[ford_428cj]

Hate seeing WW2 vets get taken out by a chink disease. 

[Jimmy Snacks]

Ahhhh...Tucker say Sweden has done fine...

 

 

[Highmark]

9 hours ago, ford_428cj said:

Hate seeing WW2 vets get taken out by a chink disease. 

Very few WW2 vets left.   If you were 18 in 1945 you are 92-93 now.  

[Anler]

11 hours ago, ford_428cj said:

Hate seeing WW2 vets get taken out by a chink disease. 

How many WW2 guys are left? FFS they have to be about 100 years old 

[spin_dry]

11 hours ago, ford_428cj said:

Hate seeing WW2 vets get taken out by a chink disease. 

You crack me up.  

[ford_428cj]

15 hours ago, racinfarmer said:

I was expecting something more like this:

Perfection ...!

 

3 hours ago, Highmark said:

Very few WW2 vets left.   If you were 18 in 1945 you are 92-93 now.  

Yup

 

1 hour ago, Anler said:

How many WW2 guys are left? FFS they have to be about 100 years old 

No idea - not many.

 

 

1 hour ago, spin_dry said:

You crack me up.  

[Anler]

12 minutes ago, ford_428cj said:

Perfection ...!

 

Yup

 

No idea - not many.

 

 

Both of my granfathers were ww2 vets and one died in 98 the other died in 2005. He was 88 in 2005. 

[jtssrx]

17 hours ago, spin_dry said:

As the coronavirus pandemic has swept the planet, Sweden has stood out among Western democracies by pursuing a "low-scale" lockdown. Whether this approach speaks to a unique strength of Swedish society, as opposed to bad judgment, can be determined by comparing Sweden's COVID-19 rate with its neighbors'.

Hans BergstromApr 17, 2020

STOCKHOLM – Does Sweden’s decision to spurn a national lockdown offer a distinct way to fight COVID-19 while maintaining an open society? The country’s unorthodox response to the coronavirus is popular at home and has won praise in some quarters abroad. But it also has contributed to one of the world’s highest COVID-19 death rates, exceeding that of the United States.

In Stockholm, bars and restaurants are filled with people enjoying the spring sun after a long, dark winter. Schools and gyms are open. Swedish officials have offered public-health advice but have imposed few sanctions. No official guidelines recommend that people wear masks.

During the pandemic’s early stages, the government and most commentators proudly embraced this “Swedish model,” claiming that it was built on Swedes’ uniquely high levels of “trust” in institutions and in one another. Prime Minister Stefan Löfven made a point of appealing to Swedes’ self-discipline, expecting them to act responsibly without requiring orders from authorities.

According to the World Values Survey, Swedes do tend to display a unique combination of trust in public institutions and extreme individualism. As sociologist Lars Trägårdh has put it, every Swede carries his own policeman on his shoulder. 

But let’s not turn causality on its head. The government did not consciously design a Swedish model for confronting the pandemic based on trust in the population’s ingrained sense of civic responsibility. Rather, actions were shaped by bureaucrats and then defended after the fact as a testament to Swedish virtue.

In practice, the core task of managing the outbreak fell to a single man: state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell at the National Institute of Public Health. Tegnell approached the crisis with his own set of strong convictions about the virus, believing that it would not spread from China, and later, that it would be enough to trace individual cases coming from abroad. Hence, the thousands of Swedish families returning from late-February skiing in the Italian Alps were strongly advised to return to work and school if not visibly sick, even if family members were infected. Tegnell argued that there were no signs of community transmission in Sweden, and therefore no need for more general mitigation measures. Despite Italy’s experience, Swedish ski resorts remained open for vacationing and partying Stockholmers.

Introducing the Project Syndicate referral program, a new way to earn credit, discounts, and more – and to support our mission – simply by sharing PS with your friends and colleagues.

Between the lines, Tegnell indicated that eschewing draconian policies to stop the spread of the virus would enable Sweden gradually to achieve herd immunity. This strategy, he stressed, would be more sustainable for society.

Through it all, Sweden’s government remained passive. That partly reflects a unique feature of the country’s political system: a strong separation of powers between central government ministries and independent agencies. And, in “the fog of war,” it was also convenient for Löfven to let Tegnell’s agency take charge. Its seeming confidence in what it was doing enabled the government to offload responsibility during weeks of uncertainty. Moreover, Löfven likely wanted to demonstrate his trust in “science and facts,” by not – like US President Donald Trump – challenging his experts.

It should be noted, though, that the state epidemiologist’s policy choice has been strongly criticized by independent experts in Sweden. Some 22 of the country’s most prominent professors in infectious diseases and epidemiology published a commentaryin Dagens Nyheter calling on Tegnell to resign and appealing to the government to take a different course of action.

By mid-March, and with wide community spread, Löfven was forced to take a more active role. Since then, the government has been playing catch-up. From March 29, it prohibited public gatherings of more than 50 people, down from 500, and added sanctions for noncompliance. Then, from April 1, it barred visits to nursing homes, after it had become clear that the virus had hit around half of Stockholm’s facilities for the elderly. 

Sweden’s approach turned out to be misguided for at least three reasons. However virtuous Swedes may be, there will always be free riders in any society, and when it comes to a highly contagious disease, it doesn’t take many to cause major harm. Moreover, Swedish authorities only gradually became aware of the possibility of asymptomatic transmission, and that infected individuals are most contagious before they start showing symptoms. And, third, the composition of the Swedish population has changed.

After years of extremely high immigration from Africa and the Middle East, 25% of Sweden’s population – 2.6 million of a total population of 10.2 million – is of recent non-Swedish descent. The share is even higher in the Stockholm region. Immigrants from Somalia, Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan are highly overrepresented among COVID-19 deaths. This has been attributed partly to a lack of information in immigrants’ languages. But a more important factor seems to be the housing density in some immigrant-heavy suburbs, enhanced by closer physical proximity between generations.

It is too soon for a full reckoning of the effects of the “Swedish model.” The COVID-19 death rate is nine times higher than in Finland, nearly five times higher than in Norway, and more than twice as high as in Denmark. To some degree, the numbers might reflect Sweden’s much larger immigrant population, but the stark disparities with its Nordic neighbors are nonetheless striking. Denmark, Norway, and Finland all imposed rigid lockdown policies early on, with strong, active political leadership.

Now that COVID-19 is running rampant through nursing homes and other communities, the Swedish government has had to backpedal. Others who may be tempted by the “Swedish model” should understand that a defining feature of it is a higher death toll.

As the COVID-19 pandemic escalates, and its effects reverberate around the world, Project Syndicate is delivering the expert scientific, economic, and political insights that people need. For more than 25 years, we have been guided by a simple credo: All people deserve access to a broad range of views by the world's foremost leaders and thinkers on the issues, events, and forces shaping their lives. In this crisis, that mission is more important than ever – and we remain committed to fulfilling it.

But there is no doubt that the intensifying crisis puts us, like so many other organizations, under growing strain.

I proved the numbers are on par with Michigan/Detroit yesterday. Sweden has the same population as Michigan. Stockholm is the largest city and it has about 400K more residents compared to Michigan's largest city which is Detroit. Detroit and Stockhold have virtually the same number of covid cases and covid deaths. I'm not sure why the media wants to try to spin what Sweden did as wrong when the number show social distancing and lockdowns were no more effective then what Sweden did.

You can spin it anyway want Spintard but the numbers don't lie!!!

[frenchy]

42 minutes ago, Anler said:

Both of my granfathers were ww2 vets and one died in 98 the other died in 2005. He was 88 in 2005. 

my grandfather was too. Just died last year at 94. 

[Matt]

Comparing the population of Sweden to the population of Michigan is like comparing Heidi Klum to Rosie O'Donnell.

There is no comparison.  Swedish are an order of magnitude healthier than your average Detroiter.  The fact they're dying in similar numbers suggests Michigan lockdowns are saving lives.  Lots of them.

[Highmark]

Reality is if we are to think the virus is as horrific as it is 175,000 worldwide deaths out of 7.8 billion....even in a 2 month time frame is quite amazing. 

Only a few years ago Malaria was killing almost 750,000 a year.   HIV still kills almost a million per year.  

https://ourworldindata.org/hiv-aids

Hell clinical diarrhea kills almost 1.2 million including 1/2 million children under 5. 

Edited April 23, 2020 by Highmark

[jtssrx]

3 minutes ago, Highmark said:

Reality is if we are to think the virus is as horrific as it is 175,000 worldwide deaths out of 7.8 billion....even in a 2 month time frame is quite amazing. 

Only a few years ago Malaria was killing almost 750,000 a year.   HIV still kills almost a million per year.  

https://ourworldindata.org/hiv-aids

Hell clinical diarrhea kills almost 1.2 million including 1/2 million children under 5. 

Stop posting mathematical facts. Facts aren't relevant to Spinretards world

[Highmark]

[ford_428cj]

1 hour ago, Anler said:

Both of my granfathers were ww2 vets and one died in 98 the other died in 2005. He was 88 in 2005. 

Article last fall said there were almost 400k still alive.

[Mainecat]

The right wing Sweden narrate rolls on and on. 

[Anler]

13 minutes ago, ford_428cj said:

Article last fall said there were almost 400k still alive.

I have a hard time believing that but whatever