Aunteefa

[Rod]

Communism needs access to capitalist markets to survive? 

[Rigid1]

5 minutes ago, motonoggin said:

Propaganda is meant to mislead, not inform  

I can see how someone who has uncritically consumed western media their entire life can't tell the difference, though.

...I literally spit my monster out in laughter..Everything you post misleading..

[Sleepr2]

7 minutes ago, motonoggin said:

Propaganda is meant to mislead, not inform  

I can see how someone who has uncritically consumed western media their entire life can't tell the difference, though.

You being such a world traveler  

[motonoggin]

8 minutes ago, ACE said:

Communism needs access to capitalist markets to survive? 

Capitalism will pour the foundation upon which communism will build. 

This is predicted by virtually all communist theorists.

Edited December 13, 2021 by motonoggin

[motonoggin]

1 minute ago, Rigid1 said:

...I literally spit my monster out in laughter..Everything you post misleading..

I can see why you'd need to believe that 

 

[Rigid1]

5 minutes ago, motonoggin said:

I can see why you'd need to believe that 

 

Of course you would, you're fucked up in the head..

[motonoggin]

7 minutes ago, Rigid1 said:

Of course you would, you're fucked up in the head..

I'm just not in denial of the fatal flaws of capitalism like the rest of you.

[airflite1]

51 minutes ago, motonoggin said:

Lmao, keep mouthing that government propaganda from the government you supposedly don't trust.

We were debating the CIA involvement of the 90's, You brought up Maduro's Presidency as proof that he has the continued support of the US, everything I find disputes that claim and the fact that he as elected 20 some years later Kinda support the facts.

Edited December 13, 2021 by airflite1

[Rigid1]

1 hour ago, motonoggin said:

I'm just not in denial of the fatal flaws of capitalism like the rest of you.

I appreciate you assigning me a position you don't know that I take..Wonder what you call someone who does that.....hmmmm

[Anler]

16 hours ago, Zambroski said:

LOL!!!!!  They haven’t found their enemies yet.  They will though.

Rittenhouse is a pussy.

You aren't going to do shit. We will all hold our breath until antifa shows up at your northern hideaway LOL

[Anler]

15 hours ago, airflite1 said:

Funny it's only in a few cities that the looting and destruction has been allowed, I wonder why? Now tell me about the Government murdering socialists and communists who didn't start the aggression. 

Are you serious?

[motonoggin]

3 hours ago, airflite1 said:

We were debating the CIA involvement of the 90's, You brought up Maduro's Presidency as proof that he has the continued support of the US, everything I find disputes that claim and the fact that he as elected 20 some years later Kinda support the facts.

Maduro is not a friend of the US. Tf dude? 

2 hours ago, Rigid1 said:

I appreciate you assigning me a position you don't know that I take..Wonder what you call someone who does that.....hmmmm

Then state a position

Do you in fact agree that capitalism is fatally flawed? 

Edited December 13, 2021 by motonoggin

[Rigid1]

26 minutes ago, motonoggin said:

Maduro is not a friend of the US. Tf dude? 

Then state a position

Do you in fact agree that capitalism is fatally flawed? 

My position is a father..That's all I care about. I do the absolute best I can do to set an example, and do what I say I am going to do.. Practice what I preach..

 

The bold is why not a single person here takes anything you say, type, or post seriously. Why we all think you are a hypocritical idiot, and have a big fat zero for morals..

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Rigid1 said:

My position is a father..That's all I care about. I do the absolute best I can do to set an example, and do what I say I am going to do.. Practice what I preach..

 

The bold is why not a single person here takes anything you say, type, or post seriously. Why we all think you are a hypocritical idiot, and have a big fat zero for morals..

Poor moto is taking a beating on both sites,,,Catbox bitchslapped him so hard next door this am I think he tumbled all the way back here. Gets up and keeps fighting,,,what a trooper 

[Zambroski]

19 minutes ago, HSR said:

Poor moto is taking a beating on both sites,,,Catbox bitchslapped him so hard next door this am I think he tumbled all the way back here. Gets up and keeps fighting,,,what a trooper 

The kids got stamina….I’ll give him that.

[DriftBusta]

2 hours ago, motonoggin said:

Maduro is not a friend of the US. Tf dude? 

Then state a position

Do you in fact agree that capitalism is fatally flawed? 

Flawed sure.  Fatally?  That is up for debate, and I'd say no.

Why don't you break down this actual weekly macroeconomic analysis by an actual economist and tell her where she's wrong?

Here Comes the Fed's Accelerated Taper

U.S. equity markets rebounded this week, after two weeks of losses, as investors were able to climb two key walls of worry: the path of the Federal Reserve and the path of the COVID-19 virus.

We will likely get more clarity on both issues in the week(s) ahead, with investors digesting both the December FOMC meeting next week as well as incoming data around the omicron variant, which thus far appears less severe than originally expected

Jerome Powell's Big Pivot

In the midst of the omicron scare last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell surprised markets with a somewhat hawkish pivot in a couple of notable areas. First, he suggested that the word "transitory" be retired when discussing inflation – implicitly acknowledging that inflationary pressures have been more persistent than the Fed had expected.

The second pivot from Chair Powell came around the path of the Fed's taper. Powell noted that accelerating the path of the Fed's balance-sheet tapering "by a few months" could make sense, as it would allow some flexibility around when the FOMC could start raising rates, particularly if inflation continues to remain stubbornly high. This notion was touted by several Fed governors last week as well.

Friday's inflation reading may have sealed the deal

Indeed, on Friday we saw that CPI inflation remained elevated through November. Headline inflation figures came in at 6.8%, the highest levels since 1982, while core inflation was 4.9% year-over-year, in line with expectations but also elevated. While inflation remains high, keep in mind that these are backward-looking readings; this CPI figure, for example, does not account fully for the recent drop in energy prices, and we could see moderating prices in the months ahead.

Nonetheless, the inflation reading likely underscores the need for the Fed to take action and accelerating the taper process is a concrete step in battling inflation. This also comes as the labor market continues to show signs of improvement, with the unemployment rate now at 4.2%, well below the pandemic peak of 14.8%. So, between the Fed's dual mandates – inflation and labor – the Fed may be shifting its focus to battling inflationary pressures over improvements in the labor market, at least for now.

The Fed's dual mandate - Inflation continues to remain well above the Fed's 2.0% target, while the labor market show steady improvement:

^{Source: FactSet}

This chart shows the recent downward trend in unemployment and upward trend in inflation.

---

What do we expect the Fed to do next week?

We see three key outcomes from the December FOMC meeting:

1. We expect the FOMC to announce an accelerated balance-sheet tapering process at next week's meeting. The pace of tapering will likely increase from $15 billion per month currently, to perhaps close to $30 billion per month. This would allow the Fed to wind down its tapering process by the first quarter of 2022, making room for the start of its rate-hiking cycle, if needed.
2. We will also be getting a new set of economic projections from the Fed next week, which will likely have updated growth, inflation and unemployment forecasts. Notably, we will also get a new Fed "dot plot," which indicates the Fed's best guess on the path of its benchmark fed funds rate. In our view, while the Fed will likely accelerate the tapering process, we believe it still has room to be patient and deliberate on rate hikes.

The FOMC will likely update its economic projections, particularly given recent trends in inflation and unemployment (highlighted boxes indicate most likely areas of change):

This table displays the FOMC's predictions for several economic line items.

---

3. Finally, we will hear Jerome Powell at the press conference discuss the Fed's latest thinking around key issues like the omicron variant, inflationary pressures, and, of course, the path of the Fed rate-hiking cycle. Notably, Powell has an opportunity to offer perhaps some more dovish commentary, particularly given the uncertainty that the new omicron variant adds to the growth outlook.

What does this mean for equity and bond markets?

Equities regain footing, but volatility likely here to stay

While the markets initially had a more risk-off reaction to the Fed's updated path – selling the high-valuation segments of equities and moving towards defensive assets and bonds – we have since seen markets regain their footing as they adjust to this new normal.

While we would expect equity markets to be more volatile in the months ahead – especially as the Fed starts to remove liquidity from the system and embarks on a rate-hiking cycle – we would also remind investors that equities historically have held up well during tapering and the start of Fed rate hikes. It is only toward the end of Fed cycles that we tend to get more severe volatility, certainly not where we expect to be in the next 12 months.

In an elevated-inflation environment, equities are an asset class that tend to perform in line with or better than rates of inflation, helping to preserve investors' purchasing power.

How should investors think about positioning within equities as the Fed removes liquidity?

• Within equities, we would expect the more value and cyclicals parts of the market to perform well, particularly as growth rebounds and demand from the ongoing reopening continues. In our view, the consumer remains healthy heading into 2022, and we see supply pressures and labor shortages easing through the year as well.
• We would balance this exposure to value sectors with perhaps some defensive areas as well. Sectors like consumer staples and health care may have some room for catch-up in returns and offer pricing power, which is particularly valuable in an elevated-inflation environment.
• Finally, we would expect bouts of pressure on high-valuation growth stocks in the months ahead. While large-cap technology has held up relatively better, investors should be mindful of maintaining a balanced portfolio, especially in an environment that may offer less air for more speculative assets.

During the recent S&P 500 sell-off, driven by uncertainty around the Fed path and omicron variant, we saw investors seek safety in defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples, and sell high-valuation and speculative assets:

^{Source: FactSet, the S&P 500 is an unmanaged index and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.}

This chart shows the S&P 500 sector performance.

---

Bonds remain a critical defense for portfolios

Overall, exposure to the bond market has served as a good defensive hedge, particularly during this recent risk-off period in equity markets. We would expect bonds to continue to play a critical defensive role in portfolios as equity-market volatility increases in the year ahead. Meanwhile, we believe that 10-year Treasury yields can continue to grind higher, especially as growth remains above trend, which provides investors with a marginally better income profile as well.

Finally, while we expect the Fed rate-hiking cycle to start next year, we also believe that it will be shallower than recent Fed cycles, perhaps bringing the fed funds rate to the 2.0% range. We believe this will be digestible for the broader economy as well, as areas like mortgage rates, credit card rates and corporate borrowing rates all remain contained.

Lower Peaks – We expect this Fed rate-hiking cycle to be shallower than recent cycles, continuing the trend of a lower terminal fed funds rate:

^{Source: FactSet}

This chart shows the Federal Reserve target interest rate over time and its general downward trend, moving to 0 after the start of the pandemic.

---

Mona Mahajan,
Investment Strategist

 

Weekly market stats

Weekly market stats

INDEX	CLOSE	WEEK	YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average	35,971	4.0%	17.5%
S&P 500 Index	4,712	3.8%	25.5%
NASDAQ	15,631	3.6%	21.3%
MSCI EAFE *	2,289.62	0.02%	6.6%
10-yr Treasury Yield	1.48%	0.1%	0.6%
Oil ($/bbl)	$71.94	8.6%	48.3%
Bonds	$114.23	-0.7%	-1.8%

^{Source: Factset. 12/10/2021. Bonds represented by the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF. Past performance does not guarantee future results. * Source: Morningstar, 12/12/2021.}

The week ahead

Important economic data being released this week include the PMI composite, the Fed Funds Rate, and Retail Sales growth.

Review last week's weekly market update.

---

Mona Mahajan

Mona Mahajan is responsible for developing and communicating the firm's macro-economic and financial market views. Her background includes equity and fixed income analysis, global investment strategy and portfolio management.

She regularly appears on CNBC, Bloomberg TV, The Wall Street Journal and Barron's.

Mona has an MBA from Harvard Business School and bachelor's degrees in finance and computer science from the Wharton School and the School of Engineering at the University of Pennsylvania.

Read Mona's Full Bio

Back to page content

 

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Search Symbol or Company

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[Guest]

1 hour ago, DriftBusta said:

Flawed sure.  Fatally?  That is up for debate, and I'd say no.

Why don't you break down this actual weekly macroeconomic analysis by an actual economist and tell her where she's wrong?

Here Comes the Fed's Accelerated Taper

U.S. equity markets rebounded this week, after two weeks of losses, as investors were able to climb two key walls of worry: the path of the Federal Reserve and the path of the COVID-19 virus.

We will likely get more clarity on both issues in the week(s) ahead, with investors digesting both the December FOMC meeting next week as well as incoming data around the omicron variant, which thus far appears less severe than originally expected

Jerome Powell's Big Pivot

In the midst of the omicron scare last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell surprised markets with a somewhat hawkish pivot in a couple of notable areas. First, he suggested that the word "transitory" be retired when discussing inflation – implicitly acknowledging that inflationary pressures have been more persistent than the Fed had expected.

The second pivot from Chair Powell came around the path of the Fed's taper. Powell noted that accelerating the path of the Fed's balance-sheet tapering "by a few months" could make sense, as it would allow some flexibility around when the FOMC could start raising rates, particularly if inflation continues to remain stubbornly high. This notion was touted by several Fed governors last week as well.

Friday's inflation reading may have sealed the deal

Indeed, on Friday we saw that CPI inflation remained elevated through November. Headline inflation figures came in at 6.8%, the highest levels since 1982, while core inflation was 4.9% year-over-year, in line with expectations but also elevated. While inflation remains high, keep in mind that these are backward-looking readings; this CPI figure, for example, does not account fully for the recent drop in energy prices, and we could see moderating prices in the months ahead.

Nonetheless, the inflation reading likely underscores the need for the Fed to take action and accelerating the taper process is a concrete step in battling inflation. This also comes as the labor market continues to show signs of improvement, with the unemployment rate now at 4.2%, well below the pandemic peak of 14.8%. So, between the Fed's dual mandates – inflation and labor – the Fed may be shifting its focus to battling inflationary pressures over improvements in the labor market, at least for now.

The Fed's dual mandate - Inflation continues to remain well above the Fed's 2.0% target, while the labor market show steady improvement:

^{Source: FactSet}

This chart shows the recent downward trend in unemployment and upward trend in inflation.

---

What do we expect the Fed to do next week?

We see three key outcomes from the December FOMC meeting:

1. We expect the FOMC to announce an accelerated balance-sheet tapering process at next week's meeting. The pace of tapering will likely increase from $15 billion per month currently, to perhaps close to $30 billion per month. This would allow the Fed to wind down its tapering process by the first quarter of 2022, making room for the start of its rate-hiking cycle, if needed.
2. We will also be getting a new set of economic projections from the Fed next week, which will likely have updated growth, inflation and unemployment forecasts. Notably, we will also get a new Fed "dot plot," which indicates the Fed's best guess on the path of its benchmark fed funds rate. In our view, while the Fed will likely accelerate the tapering process, we believe it still has room to be patient and deliberate on rate hikes.

The FOMC will likely update its economic projections, particularly given recent trends in inflation and unemployment (highlighted boxes indicate most likely areas of change):

This table displays the FOMC's predictions for several economic line items.

---

3. Finally, we will hear Jerome Powell at the press conference discuss the Fed's latest thinking around key issues like the omicron variant, inflationary pressures, and, of course, the path of the Fed rate-hiking cycle. Notably, Powell has an opportunity to offer perhaps some more dovish commentary, particularly given the uncertainty that the new omicron variant adds to the growth outlook.

What does this mean for equity and bond markets?

Equities regain footing, but volatility likely here to stay

While the markets initially had a more risk-off reaction to the Fed's updated path – selling the high-valuation segments of equities and moving towards defensive assets and bonds – we have since seen markets regain their footing as they adjust to this new normal.

While we would expect equity markets to be more volatile in the months ahead – especially as the Fed starts to remove liquidity from the system and embarks on a rate-hiking cycle – we would also remind investors that equities historically have held up well during tapering and the start of Fed rate hikes. It is only toward the end of Fed cycles that we tend to get more severe volatility, certainly not where we expect to be in the next 12 months.

In an elevated-inflation environment, equities are an asset class that tend to perform in line with or better than rates of inflation, helping to preserve investors' purchasing power.

How should investors think about positioning within equities as the Fed removes liquidity?

• Within equities, we would expect the more value and cyclicals parts of the market to perform well, particularly as growth rebounds and demand from the ongoing reopening continues. In our view, the consumer remains healthy heading into 2022, and we see supply pressures and labor shortages easing through the year as well.
• We would balance this exposure to value sectors with perhaps some defensive areas as well. Sectors like consumer staples and health care may have some room for catch-up in returns and offer pricing power, which is particularly valuable in an elevated-inflation environment.
• Finally, we would expect bouts of pressure on high-valuation growth stocks in the months ahead. While large-cap technology has held up relatively better, investors should be mindful of maintaining a balanced portfolio, especially in an environment that may offer less air for more speculative assets.

During the recent S&P 500 sell-off, driven by uncertainty around the Fed path and omicron variant, we saw investors seek safety in defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples, and sell high-valuation and speculative assets:

^{Source: FactSet, the S&P 500 is an unmanaged index and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.}

This chart shows the S&P 500 sector performance.

---

Bonds remain a critical defense for portfolios

Overall, exposure to the bond market has served as a good defensive hedge, particularly during this recent risk-off period in equity markets. We would expect bonds to continue to play a critical defensive role in portfolios as equity-market volatility increases in the year ahead. Meanwhile, we believe that 10-year Treasury yields can continue to grind higher, especially as growth remains above trend, which provides investors with a marginally better income profile as well.

Finally, while we expect the Fed rate-hiking cycle to start next year, we also believe that it will be shallower than recent Fed cycles, perhaps bringing the fed funds rate to the 2.0% range. We believe this will be digestible for the broader economy as well, as areas like mortgage rates, credit card rates and corporate borrowing rates all remain contained.

Lower Peaks – We expect this Fed rate-hiking cycle to be shallower than recent cycles, continuing the trend of a lower terminal fed funds rate:

^{Source: FactSet}

This chart shows the Federal Reserve target interest rate over time and its general downward trend, moving to 0 after the start of the pandemic.

---

Mona Mahajan,
Investment Strategist

 

Weekly market stats

Weekly market stats

INDEX	CLOSE	WEEK	YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average	35,971	4.0%	17.5%
S&P 500 Index	4,712	3.8%	25.5%
NASDAQ	15,631	3.6%	21.3%
MSCI EAFE *	2,289.62	0.02%	6.6%
10-yr Treasury Yield	1.48%	0.1%	0.6%
Oil ($/bbl)	$71.94	8.6%	48.3%
Bonds	$114.23	-0.7%	-1.8%

^{Source: Factset. 12/10/2021. Bonds represented by the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF. Past performance does not guarantee future results. * Source: Morningstar, 12/12/2021.}

The week ahead

Important economic data being released this week include the PMI composite, the Fed Funds Rate, and Retail Sales growth.

Review last week's weekly market update.

---

Mona Mahajan

Mona Mahajan is responsible for developing and communicating the firm's macro-economic and financial market views. Her background includes equity and fixed income analysis, global investment strategy and portfolio management.

She regularly appears on CNBC, Bloomberg TV, The Wall Street Journal and Barron's.

Mona has an MBA from Harvard Business School and bachelor's degrees in finance and computer science from the Wharton School and the School of Engineering at the University of Pennsylvania.

Read Mona's Full Bio

Back to page content

 

Get a Stock Quote

Get instant quotes for your favorite companies and mutual funds.

Search Symbol or Company

 

Get Started

Your Watch List

Personalize your stock watch list and track up to 10 stocks and mutual funds.

Create Watch List

 

Ummmm a little bit long to read,,,Cole's notes????

[Zambroski]

5 minutes ago, HSR said:

Ummmm a little bit long to read,,,Cole's notes????

I mean….holy fuck!

[DriftBusta]

1 hour ago, HSR said:

Ummmm a little bit long to read,,,Cole's notes????

Thats kind of the point.  Some of these guys have these completely simplistic yet overarching, insane, unrealistic views of what is going to happen, how the capitalist system is doomed to fail like the Roman empire, etc.,  and how their system is the answer. I'm merely throwing up a snapshot of what an actual economist, someone running a company, someone investing, someone with money, most of all someone in charge of the fed and our treasury moniters on a daily basis when making decisions about how much liquidity to keep in the system, keep unemployment and inflation under control, etc.,    

Edited December 14, 2021 by DriftBusta

[DriftBusta]

1 hour ago, Zambroski said:

I mean….holy fuck!

Cliffnotes:  Super smart financial nerd vs Motanoggin

[motonoggin]

7 hours ago, Rigid1 said:

My position is a father..That's all I care about. I do the absolute best I can do to set an example, and do what I say I am going to do.. Practice what I preach..

 

The bold is why not a single person here takes anything you say, type, or post seriously. Why we all think you are a hypocritical idiot, and have a big fat zero for morals..

It's hilarious how triggered you retards get when someone points out the gaping holes in the capitalist system. 

You'd think I insulted your mothers or something.

 

Moto: "Capitalism is doomed to fail, here's some supporting evidence"

Dumbfucks: "Oh yeah?! Your sister sucks dicks in hell and you're ugly and a bad person."

🤣🤣🤣

Edited December 14, 2021 by motonoggin

[Rigid1]

4 hours ago, motonoggin said:

It's hilarious how triggered you retards get when someone points out the gaping holes in the capitalist system. 

You'd think I insulted your mothers or something.

 

Moto: "Capitalism is doomed to fail, here's some supporting evidence"

Dumbfucks: "Oh yeah?! Your sister sucks dicks in hell and you're ugly and a bad person."

🤣🤣🤣

You seem triggered??

[motonoggin]

1 hour ago, Rigid1 said:

You seem triggered??

Calmer than you are, bro. 

Why do so many of you feel compelled to defend a doomed system? To the point of compromising your integrity, even? 

[Rigid1]

1 hour ago, motonoggin said:

Calmer than you are, bro. 

Why do so many of you feel compelled to defend a doomed system? To the point of compromising your integrity, even? 

Why you making up lies to defend your position. Quote me where I defended anything..All's I did was make fun of you.

Obviously you're not the sharpest knife in the drawer

[Sleepr2]

7 hours ago, motonoggin said:

It's hilarious how triggered you retards get when someone points out the gaping holes in the capitalist system. 

You'd think I insulted your mothers or something.

 

Moto: "Capitalism is doomed to fail, here's some supporting evidence"

Dumbfucks: "Oh yeah?! Your sister sucks dicks in hell and you're ugly and a bad person."

🤣🤣🤣

You seem triggered when your hypocrisy is pointed out,