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How a Trade War Escalates - WSJ Editorial


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How a Trade War Escalates - WSJ Editorial

The European Union on Wednesday released its target list of retaliatory tariffs on American exports worth $3.5 billion if Mr. Trump pushes ahead with his steel and aluminum tariffs. This is how Mr. Trump’s trade irruptions could imperil American exporters and become a destructive spiral. 

The EU is acting with some restraint—for now—in crafting a narrow list of items on which to impose tariffs, including bourbon, orange juice, corn, ladders and motor boats. None are vital to European industry, but they are politically shrewd in targeting exports from states represented by Republicans on Capitol Hill. The point is to punish voters in states Mr. Trump carried in 2016 and Republicans running for re-election this year. Too bad Europe can’t impose a tariff on Wilbur Ross and Peter Navarro, the architects of this fiasco. 

The danger for the EU is that this will inspire Mr. Trump to indulge his schoolyard impulses and hit back at the EU again. “The European Union has been particularly tough on the United States. They make it almost impossible for us to do business with them,” Mr. Trump said at a White House presser with Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven. He’s also threatened tariffs on European cars. 

Since White House aide Gary Cohn soon won’t be around the White House to explain how unconnected to reality this is, we’ll try. It is not “almost impossible” for American companies to do business in Europe. The bilateral trading relationship between the U.S. and the combined EU states is the largest in the world. In 2016 American companies sold goods worth $270 billion in the EU and services worth $231 billion. America has a bilateral trade deficit in goods with the EU—$147 billion in 2016—but a services surplus of $55 billion. 

The flip side of the trade deficit is a substantial flow of investment into the U.S. from Europe. Around half of new direct investment in America (measured as acquisition of an American firm, or creation or expansion of a subsidiary) came from Europe in 2016—nearly $200 billion. 

Such investments, made over decades, supported roughly 4.7 million jobs of Americans employed directly by affiliates of European companies as of 2015, according to U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data (counting all of Europe, including some countries that aren’t EU members). And that ignores Americans employed by companies that sell to those European affiliates, and those who work for U.S. firms that benefit from European investment in equity markets and so on. This is what economic “winning” looks like. 

American leaders at least dating to George Marshall have understood that close economic ties between the U.S. and Europe are necessary to support the trans-Atlantic military alliance. Not coincidentally, the Continent’s most vigorously pro-trade politicians also tend to be its most pro-American. A perverse consequence of Mr. Trump’s trade wrangling is that he’s alienating them. 


Mr. Trump would better serve American workers and businesses by urging the EU to join him in dusting off stalled free-trade talks. If he persists instead in stoking a trade war with America’s most important strategic and economic partner, he and America will lose—and big. 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-a-trade-war-escalates-1520467475 
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2 minutes ago, Mainecat said:

How a Trade War Escalates - WSJ Editorial

The European Union on Wednesday released its target list of retaliatory tariffs on American exports worth $3.5 billion if Mr. Trump pushes ahead with his steel and aluminum tariffs. This is how Mr. Trump’s trade irruptions could imperil American exporters and become a destructive spiral. 

The EU is acting with some restraint—for now—in crafting a narrow list of items on which to impose tariffs, including bourbon, orange juice, corn, ladders and motor boats. None are vital to European industry, but they are politically shrewd in targeting exports from states represented by Republicans on Capitol Hill. The point is to punish voters in states Mr. Trump carried in 2016 and Republicans running for re-election this year. Too bad Europe can’t impose a tariff on Wilbur Ross and Peter Navarro, the architects of this fiasco. 

The danger for the EU is that this will inspire Mr. Trump to indulge his schoolyard impulses and hit back at the EU again. “The European Union has been particularly tough on the United States. They make it almost impossible for us to do business with them,” Mr. Trump said at a White House presser with Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven. He’s also threatened tariffs on European cars. 

Since White House aide Gary Cohn soon won’t be around the White House to explain how unconnected to reality this is, we’ll try. It is not “almost impossible” for American companies to do business in Europe. The bilateral trading relationship between the U.S. and the combined EU states is the largest in the world. In 2016 American companies sold goods worth $270 billion in the EU and services worth $231 billion. America has a bilateral trade deficit in goods with the EU—$147 billion in 2016—but a services surplus of $55 billion. 

The flip side of the trade deficit is a substantial flow of investment into the U.S. from Europe. Around half of new direct investment in America (measured as acquisition of an American firm, or creation or expansion of a subsidiary) came from Europe in 2016—nearly $200 billion. 

Such investments, made over decades, supported roughly 4.7 million jobs of Americans employed directly by affiliates of European companies as of 2015, according to U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data (counting all of Europe, including some countries that aren’t EU members). And that ignores Americans employed by companies that sell to those European affiliates, and those who work for U.S. firms that benefit from European investment in equity markets and so on. This is what economic “winning” looks like. 

American leaders at least dating to George Marshall have understood that close economic ties between the U.S. and Europe are necessary to support the trans-Atlantic military alliance. Not coincidentally, the Continent’s most vigorously pro-trade politicians also tend to be its most pro-American. A perverse consequence of Mr. Trump’s trade wrangling is that he’s alienating them. 


Mr. Trump would better serve American workers and businesses by urging the EU to join him in dusting off stalled free-trade talks. If he persists instead in stoking a trade war with America’s most important strategic and economic partner, he and America will lose—and big. 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-a-trade-war-escalates-1520467475 

Lets be clear.  America is in the driver seat and given Trumps priorities are American jobs, not enriching CEOs, the EU ought to think long and hard before they destroy whats left of their duct taped and bailing wired hooptie so called union, and start a trade war with us.

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6 minutes ago, DriftBusta said:

Lets be clear.  America is in the driver seat and given Trumps priorities are American jobs, not enriching CEOs, the EU ought to think long and hard before they destroy whats left of their duct taped and bailing wired hooptie so called union, and start a trade war with us.

Did you actually post this?

priorities are American jobs, not enriching CEOs

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Now all of the sudden libs are all capitalist wall street ball lappers? Gimme a break. We have been getting fucked on trade for 30 years. Time to right that ship. 

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We had a $151 billion trade deficit with the EU in 2017.  Lets not forget about NATO which Trump correctly mentioned quietly again the other day.   They need us more than we need them.   Time to even the playing field.  

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1 minute ago, Nazipigdog said:

Now all of the sudden libs are all capitalist wall street ball lappers? Gimme a break. We have been getting fucked on trade for 30 years. Time to right that ship. 

China applies a 25% tax to our cars coming into their country.   We apply a 2.5%.   Sounds fair to me.  :lol:  

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8 minutes ago, Nazipigdog said:

Now all of the sudden libs are all capitalist wall street ball lappers? Gimme a break. We have been getting fucked on trade for 30 years. Time to right that ship. 

They are doing so many 180's their heads are spinning. Nothing short of trump dying will make them happy right now. More money in their paycheck is bad. Shutting down rogue regimes is bad. Getting trade balanced is horrible. It's actually amusing to watch the meltdown. 

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17 minutes ago, Nazipigdog said:

Now all of the sudden libs are all capitalist wall street ball lappers? Gimme a break. We have been getting fucked on trade for 30 years. Time to right that ship. 

It’s hilarious to watch the fluidity of people’s beliefs depending on who is in office. MC doesn’t even know what he’s arguing. 

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1 minute ago, xtralettucetomatoe580 said:

It’s hilarious to watch the fluidity of people’s beliefs depending on who is in office. MC doesn’t even know what he’s arguing. 

He just pulls up old posts about oby and changes oby to trump and I love to I hate.

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20 minutes ago, Nazipigdog said:

Now all of the sudden libs are all capitalist wall street ball lappers? Gimme a break. We have been getting fucked on trade for 30 years. Time to right that ship. 

Its one thing to disagree with the method of negotiations, its another thing altogether to disagree with the message.   Fair Trade.   We have been getting fucked and its time to equal the playing field a bit.  

Edited by Highmark
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4 minutes ago, Highmark said:

Its one thing to disagree with the method of negotiations, its another thing altogether to disagree with the message.   Fair Trade.   We have been getting fucked and its time to equal the playing field a bit.  

That and slowing down illegal immigration is why I voted for this guy. Certainly wasn't his personality , or lack thereof.

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2 minutes ago, steve from amherst said:

That and slowing down illegal immigration is why I voted for this guy. Certainly wasn't his personality , or lack thereof.

Policies not personality.  

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Elon Musk (God to the left) apparently likes the direction Trump is going on trade.  :pc:

http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2018/03/08/elon-musk-goes-on-twitter-tirade-over-trump-tariffs.html

"We raised this with the prior administration and nothing happened," Musk wrote. "Just want a fair outcome, ideally where tariffs/rules are equally moderate. Nothing more. Hope this does not seem unreasonable."

Edited by Highmark
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13 minutes ago, Highmark said:

Its one thing to disagree with the method of negotiations, its another thing altogether to disagree with the message.   Fair Trade.   We have been getting fucked and its time to equal the playing field a bit.  

Exactly

8 minutes ago, steve from amherst said:

That and slowing down illegal immigration is why I voted for this guy. Certainly wasn't his personality , or lack thereof.

Bingo

5 minutes ago, Highmark said:

Policies not personality.  

True. But his personality is actually a benefit for him i believe. 

1 minute ago, Highmark said:

Elon Musk (God to the left) apparently likes the direction Trump is going on trade.  :pc:

http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2018/03/08/elon-musk-goes-on-twitter-tirade-over-trump-tariffs.html

 

Oh shit...

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If you idiots don’t think US manufacturers of steel and alum won’t raise their prices your fuckin nuts.

The Chinese will kill us because of this sophomoric rookie move.

i have no problem with targeting certain finished goods but raw materials?

 

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35 minutes ago, Highmark said:

Elon Musk (God to the left) apparently likes the direction Trump is going on trade.  :pc:

http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2018/03/08/elon-musk-goes-on-twitter-tirade-over-trump-tariffs.html

"We raised this with the prior administration and nothing happened," Musk wrote. "Just want a fair outcome, ideally where tariffs/rules are equally moderate. Nothing more. Hope this does not seem unreasonable."

Yeah well.  He's gonna pay for that.  Right now a #metoo victims are being invented just for him.  That'll learn him!

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16 minutes ago, Mainecat said:

If you idiots don’t think US manufacturers of steel and alum won’t raise their prices your fuckin nuts.

The Chinese will kill us because of this sophomoric rookie move.

i have no problem with targeting certain finished goods but raw materials?

 

Why are you always playing in reverse?  

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16 minutes ago, Mainecat said:

Oh and regarding slowing immigration......good luck when less are paying taxes, s and Medicare 

If you think they are a net gain economically then I've got nothing... Can't fix stupid.  

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