When Does the Market Pop

[Angry ginger]

15 minutes ago, snoughnut said:

Why should a realtor make more just because the house is worth more? It isn't any more difficult to sell a $100k home vs a $300k home.

Don't be an idiot, plumbers don't even come close to making the kind of money those thieves do.

Most plumbers I know around here are making way more than the average realtor. Few aren't making 6 figures and a realtor selling 4 million in property which is actually on the high side as an industry is making 100k less expenses so realistically 60 after paying the company they work for and their expenses. 

[DriftBusta]

On 10/21/2017 at 8:54 AM, teamgreen02 said:

No one knows when the next correction will be.  Don't even begin to try to time the market, it's a fools game.  

I'm all domestic stocks in low cost index funds with a tilt towards mid and small cap.

Invest 15% of what you make, buy a home that costs less than the bank will lend you, and stay out of consumer debt.

All good, but you're missing out on international and emerging markets this year, because they're on fire.  A good advisor will move you around accordingly.  

On 10/21/2017 at 2:16 PM, ArcticCrusher said:

Lol.

Even the best openly admit they have no idea.    Nothing wrong with having some cash off to the side, but yah its their loss. 

The best still have reams of data that they pour over and generally they have a pretty good handle on areas of opportunity.  Thats why diversification and regular rebalancing is so important.   

On 10/21/2017 at 2:29 PM, Edmo said:

I think you should always keep at least 10-20% of your portfolio in cash.   

Thats too much imo.   In a bull market, ride the wave.  If things turn south, it takes a day to get out of your more aggressive investments.  The market has circuit breakers now that limit losses, so an active investor has plenty of notice. 

[DriftBusta]

5 minutes ago, Sal Rosenberg said:

 

I can't lie though , I think you fuckin Plumbers are crooks       

I just had a pretty aggressive back and forth with an electrician who wired up my hot tub.  He said he could give me a better deal if I paid him cash.  Fuck me.  I'd hate to see what the "regular" price would have been.  

[Sal Rosenberg]

1 minute ago, DriftBusta said:

I just had a pretty aggressive back and forth with an electrician who wired up my hot tub.  He said he could give me a better deal if I paid him cash.  Fuck me.  I'd hate to see what the "regular" price would have been.  

 

They're all busy right now so they just don't GAF 

[ArcticCrusher]

15 minutes ago, DriftBusta said:

All good, but you're missing out on international and emerging markets this year, because they're on fire.  A good advisor will move you around accordingly.  

The best still have reams of data that they pour over and generally they have a pretty good handle on areas of opportunity.  Thats why diversification and regular rebalancing is so important.   

Thats too much imo.   In a bull market, ride the wave.  If things turn south, it takes a day to get out of your more aggressive investments.  The market has circuit breakers now that limit losses, so an active investor has plenty of notice. 

It's all good, except Canada.

At least you're geared more towards growth instead of preservation during growth years.

If you didn't make it over the past 5 years or so, you better pack it in. 

[DriftBusta]

11 minutes ago, ArcticCrusher said:

It's all good, except Canada.

At least you're geared more towards growth instead of preservation during growth years.

If you didn't make it over the past 5 years or so, you better pack it in. 

My father in law gave me half his investment accounts, and hes up about 16% with me and kept the other half with LPL, which is up 6%.  My personal stuff is up 21%.  He's in a whole bunch of fixed income thats dragging down the returns of his growth investments.  If the shit hits the fan, I'm out by the end of the day, all of the 200 clients I manage get a phone call and we minimize those losses, while keeping most of the gains.  Remember that 90% of the public just finds this whole subject boring and stressful.  Its quite a bit different when its other peoples money.  Not sure what your comment about the last 5 years or so is about, unless you're already retired.    

[snoughnut]

38 minutes ago, Sal Rosenberg said:

 

I can't lie though , I think you fuckin Plumbers are crooks       

The auto body biz should never accuse anybody of being a crook, you bondo beaters have been hosing insurance companies for decades.

36 minutes ago, Angry ginger said:

Most plumbers I know around here are making way more than the average realtor. Few aren't making 6 figures and a realtor selling 4 million in property which is actually on the high side as an industry is making 100k less expenses so realistically 60 after paying the company they work for and their expenses. 

My animosity isn't towards the agent so much as it is towards the agency. Selling a 500k home at 6% at making $30,000 is ridiculous. The plumber actually works for a living, a paper cut would be a bad day for a realtor.

[Dave]

17 minutes ago, snoughnut said:

The auto body biz should never accuse anybody of being a crook, you bondo beaters have been hosing insurance companies for decades.

 

[ArcticCrusher]

15 minutes ago, DriftBusta said:

My father in law gave me half his investment accounts, and hes up about 16% with me and kept the other half with LPL, which is up 6%.  My personal stuff is up 21%.  He's in a whole bunch of fixed income thats dragging down the returns of his growth investments.  If the shit hits the fan, I'm out by the end of the day, all of the 200 clients I manage get a phone call and we minimize those losses, while keeping most of the gains.  Remember that 90% of the public just finds this whole subject boring and stressful.  Its quite a bit different when its other peoples money.  Not sure what your comment about the last 5 years or so is about, unless you're already retired.    

The last 5 years have been really good, so if you haven't done well, then you never will.

I'm up about 12% this year and have averaged about 15% per year or so over the past say 5 years. 

During that time I have mainly heard the fear sell, ie the markets are to risky and to get out, oh and mutual fund fees are to high.  But I've got a good bond to get into.  All great stuff.

I'm not retired, but I could be, I still have my best years ahead of me.

[DriftBusta]

Just now, ArcticCrusher said:

The last 5 years have been really good, so if you haven't done well, then you never will.

I'm up about 12% this year and have averaged about 15% per year or so over the past say 5 years. 

During that time I have mainly heard the fear sell, ie the markets are to risky and to get out, oh and mutual fund fees are to high.  But I've got a good bond to get into.  All great stuff.

I'm not retired, but I could be, I still have my best years ahead of me.

Thats awesome.   And fwiw regarding the bold, thats now how we do business at EJ at all.  We're long term, buy and hold quality with regular reviews, and rebalancing.  It works.  

[Sal Rosenberg]

24 minutes ago, snoughnut said:

The auto body biz should never accuse anybody of being a crook, you bondo beaters have been hosing insurance companies for decades.

 

Yeah but those guy's deserve it !!!  

[ArcticCrusher]

4 minutes ago, DriftBusta said:

Thats awesome.   And fwiw regarding the bold, thats now how we do business at EJ at all.  We're long term, buy and hold quality with regular reviews, and rebalancing.  It works.  

Good to hear.  Over time I have just learned to manage it myself and really enjoy it.

Also my SIL seems to have a very good adviser, but the string of complete incompetent losers who have been trying to win over my businesses over the past 6-7 years by fear selling are something special.

[motonoggin]

3 hours ago, Angry ginger said:

jesus your market must be all low priced housing to allow them to charge that-   5-6 is standard unless selling a mobile home or 50k house

 

for the record I agree they earn their money exposure alone in a hot market that generates multiple offers makes even selling with one in the "easy" times worthwhile.   

8% is industry standard afaik.

Usually it's split by two agents, and then each agents brokerage takes a cut and fees. The selling and buying agents usually end up with 2-3% each depending on the deal they have with their broker.

[Ez ryder]

2 hours ago, snoughnut said:

Why should a realtor make more just because the house is worth more? It isn't any more difficult to sell a $100k home vs a $300k home.

Don't be an idiot, plumbers don't even come close to making the kind of money those thieves do.

well a 100k listed home may be more work seeing as there will be a shit load of bids coming in from a shit load of people .

  in my parts plumbers start at 100bucks a hr with a trip charge . my guy is 125 no trip charge .    

[jammin]

On 10/20/2017 at 8:41 AM, xtralettucetomatoe580 said:

What do you guys think? I’m hoping for about 1.5 years than a big correction. Hope tax reform/cuts take effect and rise that sucker 3000 more points and it corrects back to the trend line with housing prices dropping 30%. I’m banking on it. Ready to spend some cash!!!! Need housing prices to shit the bed. 

Might be awhile-----    Homes in this area and North are going for above asking price.  Neighbor 5 years ago paid 317K for a 3BR 2 bath.  15K in property taxes, BTW.  On the market for 400K and looks like it will sell for over 415K. 

The place heading into the cabin on the left with the pole building (right before the mail boxes) sold for 490K 7 years ago....  Just sold without even being listed by Sandy for 685K-  Taxes around 6K a year. 

[Angry ginger]

13 hours ago, motonoggin said:

8% is industry standard afaik.

Usually it's split by two agents, and then each agents brokerage takes a cut and fees. The selling and buying agents usually end up with 2-3% each depending on the deal they have with their broker.

i know how it works i've  dealt with it for 25 years,  when i started standard was 6 now it's 5 unless your selling a mobile home then it might be 8 or 10.  most good agents are paying a desk fee and keeping the majority of the commission although theres still some traditional 50/50 places left out there for training grounds.  

 

 

 

[Angry ginger]

5 hours ago, jammin said:

Might be awhile-----    Homes in this area and North are going for above asking price.  Neighbor 5 years ago paid 317K for a 3BR 2 bath.  15K in property taxes, BTW.  On the market for 400K and looks like it will sell for over 415K. 

The place heading into the cabin on the left with the pole building (right before the mail boxes) sold for 490K 7 years ago....  Just sold without even being listed by Sandy for 685K-  Taxes around 6K a year. 

i have't seen much go for less than asking over the past few years and lots going for more than ask.  inventory being the biggest driver of that as theres so little to buy.