Crnr2Crnr Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 (edited) Uncertain where the next market bottoms are before the mid-terms and a lot will depend on what the federal reserve does with rates. Feel Wall Street already has a bit of the next rate hike baked into the cake but the inflation and employment numbers are the harbingers. Current targets are... DJIA 27,173 S&P 3,298 Nazzy 10,913 Rus2k 1,474 If they break further under those levels all hell may break loose. @ArcticCrusher @DriftBusta @f7ben Edited September 16, 2022 by Crnr2Crnr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crnr2Crnr Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 @Highmark Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Platinum Contributing Member Highmark Posted September 16, 2022 Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted September 16, 2022 20 minutes ago, Crnr2Crnr said: Uncertain where the next market bottoms are before the mid-terms and a lot will depend on what the federal reserve does with rates. Feel Wall Street already has a bit of the next rate hike baked into the cake but the inflation and employment numbers are the harbingers. Current targets are... DJIA $27,173 S&P $3,298 Nazzy $10,913 Rus2k $1,474 If they break further under those levels all hell may break loose. @ArcticCrusher @DriftBusta @f7ben Why are you putting $ signs in front of the numbers? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crnr2Crnr Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Highmark said: Why are you putting $ signs in front of the numbers? for effect have any targets of your own? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Platinum Contributing Member Highmark Posted September 16, 2022 Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted September 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, Crnr2Crnr said: for effect have any targets of your own? No....never would just randomly set a number and why in the previous post my range was large. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crnr2Crnr Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 32 minutes ago, Highmark said: No....never would just randomly set a number and why in the previous post my range was large. DJIA is down 16%, S&P 19% & Naz 28% YTD There's more pain likely to come but looking at the 9/2020 and 10/2020 double bottom is where I'm setting my first thresholds. But, it's speculation Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Platinum Contributing Member Highmark Posted September 16, 2022 Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted September 16, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Crnr2Crnr said: DJIA is down 16%, S&P 19% & Naz 28% YTD There's more pain likely to come but looking at the 9/2020 and 10/2020 double bottom is where I'm setting my first thresholds. But, it's speculation Of the top 10 worst corrections/crashes I most were around the 40-50% range. Dotcom bubble and 1929 crashes being far worse. I could easily see a 50% correction in all major indices here as history has shown us in the past. The covid crash was somewhat of an anomaly as it only took about 33 days to level off. Edited September 16, 2022 by Highmark Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mainecat Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 Bitcoin! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Platinum Contributing Member Skidooski Posted September 16, 2022 Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted September 16, 2022 13 minutes ago, Mainecat said: Bitcoin! As shaky as this Biden Economy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crnr2Crnr Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 36 minutes ago, Highmark said: Of the top 10 worst corrections/crashes I most were around the 40-50% range. Dotcom bubble and 1929 crashes being far worse. I could easily see a 50% correction in all major indices here as history has shown us in the past. The covid crash was somewhat of an anomaly as it only took about 33 days to level off. I'm not of the mindset we're going to go that far down the rabbit hole. My second target would be 4/2018 and 3/2019 bottoms. Fed won't let the markets crash completely as history from 2009 forward has shown us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
f7ben Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 I’d look for something closer to 24-25k on the Dow , that’s about fair value plus inflationary impacts from the last 24 months. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crnr2Crnr Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 21 minutes ago, f7ben said: I’d look for something closer to 24-25k on the Dow , that’s about fair value plus inflationary impacts from the last 24 months. potentially federal reserve actions is the biggest harbinger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DriftBusta Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 I’m not in the speculation business. But I think you’re a little too pessimistic. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
f7ben Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 39 minutes ago, DriftBusta said: I’m not in the speculation business. But I think you’re a little too pessimistic. What’s the Dow at if you take it back to historical mean p/e ? I’d say something slightly discounted from there should suffice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DriftBusta Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 12 minutes ago, f7ben said: What’s the Dow at if you take it back to historical mean p/e ? I’d say something slightly discounted from there should suffice. Listen to you 😆 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
f7ben Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, DriftBusta said: Listen to you 😆 What’s the impetus for a historically high PE right now? I’m curious what type of rationalization you could give me now that’s Trumps amazing moral boost isn’t the excuse. The fed drove the market and they are pulling out. Soon it will be a race to the door. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crnr2Crnr Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 1 hour ago, DriftBusta said: I’m not in the speculation business. But I think you’re a little too pessimistic. which of us? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DriftBusta Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 (edited) 55 minutes ago, f7ben said: What’s the impetus for a historically high PE right now? I’m curious what type of rationalization you could give me now that’s Trumps amazing moral boost isn’t the excuse. The fed drove the market and they are pulling out. Soon it will be a race to the door. I would answer most likely Consumer and investor confidence, in future looking companies that not have monetized their technology just yet, etc. Current Dow P/E is right around 20x which is well within 1 standard deviation of that 20 year average of just under 18x. There are some great bargains in div stocks right now and I’m selling 1 yr cds for 3.7%, which is the best we’ve seen in years. I agree that the government has been printing way too much money, and that’s a whole separate conversation. no congress or president has an exclusive on that. Feds job is to keep inflation down and employment stable within the landscape that the government has created. Anc until we have true campaign finance reform which no one is talking about, that won’t change cuz it’s all just legalized bribery and paying back campaign benefactors.. Edited September 16, 2022 by DriftBusta Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkisNH Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 47 minutes ago, f7ben said: What’s the impetus for a historically high PE right now? I’m curious what type of rationalization you could give me now that’s Trumps amazing moral boost isn’t the excuse. The fed drove the market and they are pulling out. Soon it will be a race to the door. Here is the 20 year p/e chart Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkisNH Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 This is historical....we are about down to top line average... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
f7ben Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, SkisNH said: Here is the 20 year p/e chart Right , you can erase that bump at 2008 as that was purely market crash anomaly. You’ll see that even on the 20 year we are historically high. Now bump that graph out to a 50 year and show a few other recessions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spin_dry Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 She’ll bottom at or around 28k. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
f7ben Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, SkisNH said: This is historical....we are about down to top line average... Exactly , we’re in a fucking recession with historically high PE. Exactly what I said Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DriftBusta Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Crnr2Crnr said: which of us? Both of you. 😄 . Part of the ongoing education we have to do is to wade through countless opinions and find consensus. I’m not reading anything that is forecasting a 25k Dow. I remember in the training one of the classes was a whole bunch of newspaper headlines and we had to guess when they were printed. Point being there has been doom and gloom predictions since the market began. Employment and consumer spending is still strong, which we did not have back in 08-09. We eventually had to get back to normal interest rates, the days of free money seem to be over. Klaus Schwab said we weren’t going to need any $ anyways 😆 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DriftBusta Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 25,000 invested in a simple mutual fund in 1980 like Growth Fund of America. Who can guess what that would be worth today? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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