Sweden. Hopefully the start of a trend

[AKIQPilot]

Sweden Bucked Conventional Wisdom, and Other Countries Are Following

No lockdown, no shuttered businesses or elementary schools, no stay-at-home. And no disaster, either.

Spring is in the air, and it is increasingly found in the confident step of the people of Sweden.

With a death rate significantly lower than that of France, Spain, the U.K., Belgium, Italy, and other European Union countries, Swedes can enjoy the spring without panic or fears of reigniting a new epidemic as they go about their day in a largely normal fashion.

Dr. Mike Ryan, the executive director of the World Health Organization’s Emergencies Program, says: “I think if we are to reach a new normal, I think in many ways Sweden represents a future model — if we wish to get back to a society in which we don’t have lockdowns.”

The Swedish ambassador to the U.S., Karin Ulrika Olofsdotter, says: “We could reach herd immunity in the capital” of Stockholm as early as sometime in May. That would dramatically limit spread of the virus.

A month ago, we first wrote about Sweden’s approach, which we said “relies more on calibrated precautions and isolating only the most vulnerable than on imposing a full lockdown.”

A fortunate constellation of circumstances ensured that Dr. Anders Tegnell, the chief epidemiologist of Sweden, was in charge of that country’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the misgivings of many Swedish politicians and foreign observers. Tegnell heroically bucked the conventional wisdom of every other nation and carefully examined the insubstantial evidence that social-isolation controls would help reduce COVID-19 deaths over the full course of the virus.

 

As Tegnell told NPR in early April: “I’m not sure that there is a scientific consensus on, really, about anything when it comes to this new coronavirus, basically because we don’t have much evidence for any kind of measures we are taking.”

Well, a month later we now know more.

Myth No. 1: Sweden’s policy was not carefully thought out or well considered.
The number of cases in Sweden and other countries is still rising, but in Sweden one-third of intensive-care beds remain empty. Tegnell has looked at other nations that are loosening their lockdowns. “To me it looks like a lot of the exit strategies that are being discussed look very much like what Sweden is already doing,” he told Canada’s Globe & Mail.

Tegnell and his colleagues recognized that the decision to shut down a country was not solely a medical decision based only on the virus The economic costs and health impacts caused by lockdowns are enormous, they realized, so they factored into their analysis the broader societal effects of any restrictions. The saw, for instance, that there is no evidence that children easily transmit the virus. Tegnell told NPR:

We look at other consequences for public health, like closing schools. That causes enormous problems, not least for the health of the children. I mean, children that already are disadvantaged, if you close down the schools, this is the one good thing they have sometimes in life. This is where they get their food. This is where they get their social context. So closing schools is not a good thing.

Jan Albert, a professor in the Department of Microbiology, Tumor, and Cell Biology at Sweden’s Karolinska Institute, told CNN that strict lockdowns “only serve to flatten the curve, and flattening the curve doesn’t mean that cases disappear — they are just moved in time.” He added: “And as long as the health-care system reasonably can cope with and give good care to the ones that need care, it’s not clear that having the cases later in time is better.”

Myth No. 2: Sweden did much worse than the U.S. or other countries in managing COVID-19 cases and deaths.
Sweden has about 2,200 reported COVID-19 cases per million population. This is lower than the number in the U.S. (3,053 per million), the U.K., France, Spain, Italy, and also lower than in many other EU countries. It’s slightly above the number in Germany, which has been hailed for its approach to the virus.

Sweden has 265 reported COVID-19 deaths per million population. That is somewhat higher than in the U.S. (204 per million) but lower than the number in many other EU countries.

 

Tegnell admits that his country failed to contain the initial outbreak in crowded senior homes. “Something like 50 percent of our death toll comes from the rather small population living in care homes,” he said. “We know that we have had a problem with the elderly homes, this has been a discussion for years.”

As elsewhere, Swedish COVID-19 deaths are overwhelmingly among the frail elderly and those with serious chronic disease. Over half of Swedish deaths are in nursing homes. Of those who died, 90 percent were over 70 and half were over 86, with just 1 percent younger than 50.

It is ironic that half of the Swedish deaths are in people over the age of 86. Life expectancy in Sweden is 83, whereas it’s 79 in the U.S., so it isn’t surprising that there are relatively more frail elderly in Sweden. Out of every 100,000 births, about 10,000 more Swedes are still alive at age 85 than Americans are, so Sweden’s slightly higher COVID-19 death rate, compared with ours, mostly reflects the fact that a larger percentage of Swedes live well past 79.

So, on an age-adjusted basis, Sweden has done significantly better than the U.S. in terms of both cases per million and deaths per million — and with no lockdowns.

 

Myth No. 3: Sweden’s relatively low number of intensive-care beds would spell disaster for its response to the virus.
Initially, the main justification for the global lockdowns was that they were necessary to prevent a crush of patients from overwhelming hospital intensive-care units. But Sweden has shown that shutting down the economy and essentially imprisoning the young and healthy are not necessary to avoid ICU overcrowding. Despite no lockdowns and few social-isolation controls other than proper spacing in restaurants and a ban on gatherings of more than 50 people, the Swedish hospital system never experienced anything remotely like the crush of ICU patients in Italy, Spain, and New York City. Sweden’s ICU COVID-19 patient census (updated nationwide daily) peaked in early April, with about 50 new admissions daily. Now it is gradually declining to about 35 new ICU cases a day.

Unlike its Nordic neighbors and everywhere else, Sweden doesn’t have to worry about when to reintroduce its “vulnerable” isolated population to social mixing and risk their exposure to the virus. That has been already happening naturally and has generated a defensive reservoir of population viral resistance to COVID-19 that puts it — just like SARS, MERS, and the seasonal flu — in Sweden’s rearview mirror.

 

Sweden doesn’t have to worry about when and how to end social isolation. They don’t have to decide who to keep locked down and who to let out. They don’t have to get into civil-liberty arguments over involuntary restrictions or whether to fine people for not wearing masks and gloves.

Of course, Sweden paid a price during the pandemic. But whatever price the Swedes paid for their COVID-19 policy, they will tell you it was worth it. And it is easy to figure out that price. They never cratered their economy or blocked nonemergency surgeries. They had more deaths than their Nordic neighbors, but nothing even close to the 650 deaths per million the U.S. suffered during the 1968 Hong Kong flu, a pandemic that was handled with few social-isolation controls and no lockdowns.

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Now many countries and U.S. states are beginning to follow Sweden’s lead. But California and other states continue to pile up isolation-induced health costs and blow gigantic holes in their budgets with lockdowns that, nationwide, have generated more than 30 million newly unemployed.

 

John Fund is a columnist for National Review and has reported frequently from Sweden. Joel Hay is a professor in the department of Pharmaceutical Economics and Policy at the University of Southern California; the author of more than 600 peer-reviewed scientific articles and reports, he has collaborated with the Swedish Institute for Health Economics for nearly 40 years.

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/05/coronavirus-crisis-sweden-refused-lockdown-other-countries-following/

[AKIQPilot]

Their numbers are improving.  Still far from a trend but it seems fewer people are dying from the virus.  16 deaths yesterday and only 10 today.  Lets hope this trend continues.  

If Stockholm can reach herd immunity by mid/late May they will be well on their way to defeating this virus.  Other European countries are taking note.  

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Updates

• 235 new cases and 10 new deaths in Sweden [source]

May 2   

Updates

• 562 new cases and 16 new deaths in Sweden [source]

May 1   

Updates

• 428 new cases and 67 new deaths in Sweden [source]

April 30 

Updates

• 790 new cases and 124 new deaths in Sweden [source]

April 29 

Updates

• 681 new cases and 107 new deaths in Sweden [source]

April 28 

Updates

• 695 new cases and 81 new deaths in Sweden [source]

April 27 

[AKIQPilot]

Herd immunity in parts of Sweden could be just weeks away.  

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/04/28/coronavirus-covid-19-sweden-anders-tegnell-herd-immunity/3031536001/

[ViperGTS/Z1]

Bravo to Sweden

 Pretty much goes to show that our shutdown was unnecessary  and will do nothing but prolong this virus from achieving herd immunity . Not to mention the  detrimental impact on our economy. Sweden apparently dodged a bullet in all that.

  We also had very similar nursing home deaths as Sweden

Edited May 4, 2020 by ViperGTS/Z1

[AKIQPilot]

50 minutes ago, ViperGTS/Z1 said:

Bravo to Sweden

 Pretty much goes to show that our shutdown was unnecessary  and will do nothing but prolong this virus from achieving herd immunity . Not to mention the  detrimental impact on our economy. Sweden apparently dodged a bullet in all that.

  We also had very similar nursing home deaths as Sweden

Sweden still has more deaths per million people than the US and many more deaths than some of their European neighbors but their dead numbers are falling pretty fast. 
 

The jury is still out on how this will all shake out but so far Swedens economy seems to be holding up fairly well. 
 

 

[snopro31]

This virus showed that modern medicine isn’t the be all end all. 

[ckf]

How would that have worked out in regions of the US where hospitals were overrun with the virus? At a bare minimum we would have needed to close off the big cities like NY.

[Jimmy Snacks]

1 hour ago, ckf said:

How would that have worked out in regions of the US where hospitals were overrun with the virus? At a bare minimum we would have needed to close off the big cities like NY.

Exactly...places like New Orleans, Boston, NYC, Detroit...etc....literally would have had people dying in the streets and then what. Who takes care of the bodies and even greater numbers of patients with even less PPE on hand.  Then you have rural areas that may have fared pretty well utilizing mitigation...take that way and even a small uptick in cases could quickly overwhelm small HC Systems. 

Edited May 4, 2020 by Jimmy Snacks

[XCR1250]

Russia had 10,000 new cases yesterday.

[spin_dry]

 

[XCR1250]

5 minutes ago, spin_dry said:

 

You do not believe Russia's 10,000 from yesterday? It was on the news this morning.

[spin_dry]

1 minute ago, XCR1250 said:

You do not believe Russia's 10,000 from yesterday? It was on the news this morning.

No I believe it. It’s the entire herd immunity thing that has me  

[Mainecat]

2 minutes ago, spin_dry said:

No I believe it. It’s the entire herd immunity thing that has me  

It’s the reverse herd.

Sweden is not a success story.

[washedupmxer]

2 hours ago, Jimmy Snacks said:

Exactly...places like New Orleans, Boston, NYC, Detroit...etc....literally would have had people dying in the streets and then what. Who takes care of the bodies and even greater numbers of patients with even less PPE on hand.  Then you have rural areas that may have fared pretty well utilizing mitigation...take that way and even a small uptick in cases could quickly overwhelm small HC Systems. 

The survival rate is 98.5% 

Dying in the streets

[XCR1250]

26 minutes ago, spin_dry said:

No I believe it. It’s the entire herd immunity thing that has me  

Oh..lol

 

I don't think Masks are the answer either.

There are several possible reasons why masks don’t offer significant protection. First, masks may not do much without eye protection. We know from animal and laboratory experiments that influenza or other coronaviruses can enter the eyes and travel to the nose and into the respiratory system.

While standard and special masks provide incomplete protection, special masks combined with goggles appear to provide complete protection in laboratory experiments. However, there are no studies in real-world situations measuring the results of combined mask and eyewear.

The apparent minimal impact of wearing masks might also be because people didn’t use them properly. For example, one study found less than half of the participants wore them “most of the time”. People may also wear masks inappropriately, or touch a contaminated part of the mask when removing it and transfer the virus to their hand, then their eyes and thus to the nose.

Masks may also provide a false sense of security, meaning wearers might do riskier things such as going into crowded spaces and places.

[Big Crappie]

One more time, the fucking mask is to protect other people from the shit coming from the wearer of the masks mouth and nose. You cough or sneeze and the mask acts as a block.

 

[Mainecat]

2 minutes ago, Big Crappie said:

One more time, the fucking mask is to protect other people from the shit coming from the wearer of the masks mouth and nose. You cough or sneeze and the mask acts as a block.

 

Was thinking the same.

[spin_dry]

10 minutes ago, Big Crappie said:

One more time, the fucking mask is to protect other people from the shit coming from the wearer of the masks mouth and nose. You cough or sneeze and the mask acts as a block.

 

Very true. Only the N95 mask protects the wearer. 

[ckf]

Even if it does end up being successful in Sweden,  would that approach work in bigger countries like the US? NY city has close to the population of the entire country of Sweden.  

[snopro31]

The mask is only as good as the person wearing it is at washing their hands. 

[XCR1250]

22 minutes ago, Big Crappie said:

One more time, the fucking mask is to protect other people from the shit coming from the wearer of the masks mouth and nose. You cough or sneeze and the mask acts as a block.

 

When you ask folks why they are wearing a mask many times they answer "I don't want to get sick"

[frenchy]

5 minutes ago, ckf said:

Even if it does end up being successful in Sweden,  would that approach work in bigger countries like the US? NY city has close to the population of the entire country of Sweden.  

this Sweden talk is a joke really. Lost in all this is the fact large segments of the population voluntarily isolated because they don't view their government as the enemy like over here. They actually believe their government is trying to protect them. Many stayed home, so the idea that they were just going about their business is patently false. 

Secondly, they are nowhere near reaching herd immunity levels and their top state epidemiologist has stated for them to truly have herd immunity as a nation it would need to be in conjunction with a vaccine.

[BOHICA]

Sweden did somewhat of a lock down...  they just did it smartly.  Closed off elderly homes, shut down gatherings over 50, but let those that have little to no chance of dieing continue on normally.

 

if the US was serious about this they would have shutdown mass transit it hard hit areas such as NYC

[ckf]

1 minute ago, frenchy said:

this Sweden talk is a joke really. Lost in all this is the fact large segments of the population voluntarily isolated because they don't view their government as the enemy like over here. They actually believe their government is trying to protect them. Many stayed home, so the idea that they were just going about their business is patently false. 

Secondly, they are nowhere near reaching herd immunity levels and their top state epidemiologist has stated for them to truly have herd immunity as a nation it would need to be in conjunction with a vaccine.

I'm just trying to tone it down a bit. I did say 'if'. 

[favoritos]

13 minutes ago, Big Crappie said:

One more time, the fucking mask is to protect other people from the shit coming from the wearer of the masks mouth and nose. You cough or sneeze and the mask acts as a block.

 

Yeppers.

Seems ironic to see all the talk about masks.  That, and most average people don't know how to wear them.  I think the average snowmobiler with glasses could give some serious lessons about fit and wear.

Anyone that deals with hazardous materials can also point to a serious flaw in wearing masks.

I wonder how long it will be before they start telling people that AC systems are bad for transmission?  I'm surprised it hasn't been mentioned yet.  Cool forced air systems?  They do seem common in many areas with problems.

To the OP.  I do hope that the approach in Sweden does teach us something. 

There are some interesting numbers coming out of Afghanistan as well.  It is hard to say if they are valid, but they are interesting.