The death of the internal combustion engine

[Mainecat]

The death of the internal combustion engine

It had a good run. But the end is in sight for the machine that changed the world

Aug 12th 2017

 

“HUMAN inventiveness…has still not found a mechanical process to replace horses as the propulsion for vehicles,” lamented Le Petit Journal, a French newspaper, in December 1893. Its answer was to organise the Paris-Rouen race for horseless carriages, held the following July. The 102 entrants included vehicles powered by steam, petrol, electricity, compressed air and hydraulics. Only 21 qualified for the 126km (78-mile) race, which attracted huge crowds. The clear winner was the internal combustion engine. Over the next century it would go on to power industry and change the world.

The big end

But its days are numbered. Rapid gains in battery technology favour electric motors instead (see Briefing). In Paris in 1894 not a single electric car made it to the starting line, partly because they needed battery-replacement stations every 30km or so. Today’s electric cars, powered by lithium-ion batteries, can do much better. The Chevy Bolt has a range of 383km; Tesla fans recently drove a Model S more than 1,000km on a single charge. UBS, a bank, reckons the “total cost of ownership” of an electric car will reach parity with a petrol one next year—albeit at a loss to its manufacturer. It optimistically predicts electric vehicles will make up 14% of global car sales by 2025, up from 1% today. Others have more modest forecasts, but are hurriedly revising them upwards as batteries get cheaper and better—the cost per kilowatt-hour has fallen from $1,000 in 2010 to $130-200 today. Regulations are tightening, too. Last month Britain joined a lengthening list of electric-only countries, saying that all new cars must be zero-emission by 2050.

The shift from fuel and pistons to batteries and electric motors is unlikely to take that long. The first death rattles of the internal combustion engine are already reverberating around the world—and many of the consequences will be welcome.

To gauge what lies ahead, think how the internal combustion engine has shaped modern life. The rich world was rebuilt for motor vehicles, with huge investments in road networks and the invention of suburbia, along with shopping malls and drive-through restaurants. Roughly 85% of American workers commute by car. Carmaking was also a generator of economic development and the expansion of the middle class, in post-war America and elsewhere. There are now about 1bn cars on the road, almost all powered by fossil fuels. Though most of them sit idle, America’s car and lorry engines can produce ten times as much energy as its power stations. The internal combustion engine is the mightiest motor in history.

But electrification has thrown the car industry into turmoil. Its best brands are founded on their engineering heritage—especially in Germany. Compared with existing vehicles, electric cars are much simpler and have fewer parts; they are more like computers on wheels. That means they need fewer people to assemble them and fewer subsidiary systems from specialist suppliers. Carworkers at factories that do not make electric cars are worried that they could be for the chop. With less to go wrong, the market for maintenance and spare parts will shrink. While today’s carmakers grapple with their costly legacy of old factories and swollen workforces, new entrants will be unencumbered. Premium brands may be able to stand out through styling and handling, but low-margin, mass-market carmakers will have to compete chiefly on cost.

Assuming, of course, that people want to own cars at all. Electric propulsion, along with ride-hailing and self-driving technology, could mean that ownership is largely replaced by “transport as a service”, in which fleets of cars offer rides on demand. On the most extreme estimates, that could shrink the industry by as much as 90%. Lots of shared, self-driving electric cars would let cities replace car parks (up to 24% of the area in some places) with new housing, and let people commute from far away as they sleep—suburbanisation in reverse.

Even without a shift to safe, self-driving vehicles, electric propulsion will offer enormous environmental and health benefits. Charging car batteries from central power stations is more efficient than burning fuel in separate engines. Existing electric cars reduce carbon emissions by 54% compared with petrol-powered ones, according to America’s National Resources Defence Council. That figure will rise as electric cars become more efficient and grid-generation becomes greener. Local air pollution will fall, too. The World Health Organisation says that it is the single largest environmental health risk, with outdoor air pollution contributing to 3.7m deaths a year. One study found that car emissions kill 53,000 Americans each year, against 34,000 who die in traffic accidents.

Autos and autocracies

And then there is oil. Roughly two-thirds of oil consumption in America is on the roads, and a fair amount of the rest uses up the by-products of refining crude oil to make petrol and diesel. The oil industry is divided about when to expect peak demand; Royal Dutch Shell says that it could be little more than a decade away. The prospect will weigh on prices long before then. Because nobody wants to be left with useless oil in the ground, there will be a dearth of new investment, especially in new, high-cost areas such as the Arctic. By contrast, producers such as Saudi Arabia, with vast reserves that can be tapped cheaply, will be under pressure to get pumping before it is too late: the Middle East will still matter, but a lot less than it did. Although there will still be a market for natural gas, which will help generate power for all those electric cars, volatile oil prices will strain countries that depend on hydrocarbon revenues to fill the national coffers. When volumes fall, the adjustment will be fraught, particularly where the struggle for power has long been about controlling oil wealth. In countries such as Angola and Nigeria where oil has often been a curse, the diffusion of economic clout may bring immense benefits.

Meanwhile, a scramble for lithium is under way. The price of lithium carbonate has risen from $4,000 a tonne in 2011 to more than $14,000. Demand for cobalt and rare-earth elements for electric motors is also soaring. Lithium is used not just to power cars: utilities want giant batteries to store energy when demand is slack and release it as it peaks. Will all this make lithium-rich Chile the new Saudi Arabia? Not exactly, because electric cars do not consume it; old lithium-ion batteries from cars can be reused in power grids, and then recycled.

The internal combustion engine has had a good run—and could still dominate shipping and aviation for decades to come. But on land electric motors will soon offer freedom and convenience more cheaply and cleanly. As the switch to electric cars reverses the trend in the rich world towards falling electricity consumption, policymakers will need to help, by ensuring that there is enough generating capacity—in spite of many countries’ broken system of regulation. They may need to be the midwives to new rules and standards for public recharging stations, and the recycling of batteries, rare-earth motors and other components in “urban mines”. And they will have to cope with the turmoil as old factory jobs disappear.

Driverless electric cars in the 21st century are likely to improve the world in profound and unexpected ways, just as vehicles powered by internal combustion engines did in the 20th. But it will be a bumpy road. Buckle up.

https://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21726071-it-had-good-run-end-sight-machine-changed-world-death

[Edmo]

Must be a slow day for biased negative trump news.  

[JEFF]

Google "lithium production"

[T1R9sledder]

Interesting read....I've always thought the fuel cell tech would be the replacement.

[racer254]

The Chevy Bolt has a range of 383km;  

Edited August 10, 2017 by racer254

[Momorider]

14 minutes ago, JEFF said:

Google "lithium production"

FAKENEWSMAINECUNT needs to take his lithium  

[Mainecat]

1 hour ago, racer254 said:

The Chevy Bolt has a range of 383km;  

The BOLT does

238 Miles = 383KM you dumb ass

[Edmo]

1 minute ago, Mainecat said:

The BOLT does

238 Miles = 383KM you dumb ass

Except when it's cold out. Or you run the AC. Or you run the heater. Or you drive aggressively. Or...

[T1R9sledder]

3 minutes ago, Mainecat said:

The BOLT does

238 Miles = 383KM you dumb ass

How long does it take to recharge?

[racer254]

10 minutes ago, T1R9sledder said:

How long does it take to recharge?

I happen to think it's a ridiculous name....Bolt...like lightning bolt!!!

This is the issue with most EV, not to mention you still have to provide a fuel source to produce the electricity.

 

[JEFF]

1 minute ago, racer254 said:

I happen to think it's a ridiculous name....Bolt...like lightning bolt!!!

This is the issue with most EV, not to mention you still have to provide a fuel source to produce the electricity.

 

You mean the electricity doesn't just flow out of the outlet on it's own free will??

[Highmark]

17 minutes ago, Mainecat said:

The BOLT does

238 Miles = 383KM you dumb ass

  

Stock Volkswagen Diesel Goes 1626.1 Miles On Single Tank Of Fuel

[racer254]

4 minutes ago, JEFF said:

You mean the electricity doesn't just flow out of the outlet on it's own free will??

Of course......

It can hold a charge up to 90 miles in 30 minutes of fast charge time.

How much is your time actually worth?  Is everyone willing to give up their time to drive an electric?

I think you have to read this with a grain of salt.  Sure, ev will replace some, but it's going to be long after we are dead before the IC engine dies.

Edited August 10, 2017 by racer254

[Edmo]

1 minute ago, racer254 said:

Of course......

It can hold a charge up to 90 miles in 30 minutes of fast charge time.

How much is your time actually worth?  Is everyone willing to give up their time to drive an electric?

The technology is not there yet, but they're getting better. Need more time and more breakthroughs. 300 miles to my cabin, no way I'm sitting there beating off waiting for my car to charge.

[Snoslinger]

43 minutes ago, racer254 said:

The Chevy Bolt has a range of 383km;  

yeah, and?

 

[Highmark]

I LOVE electric cars.   Takes demand away from oil which reduces the price of it for me.   I hope ALL of you switch to electric cars soon.   The ICE isn't going away anytime soon.  

Edited August 10, 2017 by Highmark

[racer254]

2 minutes ago, Highmark said:

I LOVE electric cars.   Takes demand away from oil which reduces the price of it for me.   I hope ALL of you switch to electric cars soon.   The ICE isn't going away anytime soon.  

Great point.

[T1R9sledder]

6 minutes ago, Snoslinger said:

yeah, and?

 

They are getting better distance and charge times. But it's still a long way off before I would drive an electric into the backwoods. 

[Highmark]

1 minute ago, racer254 said:

Great point.

Remember the cheaper something is the more viable it becomes or in this case stays.  

I really want to try the KTM electric bike.   Looks cool as hell.

http://www.ktm.com/e-ride/#

Edited August 10, 2017 by Highmark

[Snoslinger]

Just now, T1R9sledder said:

They are getting better distance and charge times. But it's still a long way off before I would drive an electric into the backwoods. 

that's fine, just wondering why dipshit racer thinks that is a big negative. hell that distance is plenty for most drivers, and like you said, things get better and better.

[ArcticCrusher]

Its a good thing there were no EV fags in need of a quick charge last weekend at this stop.

 

[Highmark]

  

 

[T1R9sledder]

1 minute ago, Snoslinger said:

that's fine, just wondering why dipshit racer thinks that is a big negative. hell that distance is plenty for most drivers, and like you said, things get better and better.

For a normal commute it's fine for that. I am considering buying one as a delivery vehicle and see how it handles the wear and tear. It could a HUGE savings for my gas expense. 

[AKIQPilot]

6 minutes ago, Snoslinger said:

that's fine, just wondering why dipshit racer thinks that is a big negative. hell that distance is plenty for most drivers, and like you said, things get better and better.

Yep.  Nearly 400km (250 miles) of range is more than plenty for 95% of all driving. To think otherwise is just being asinine.  

[BOHICA]

Different parts of the country electric is feasible.  Many parts are not.  

I thought about a fusion energy briefly.  Maybe have 20 miles on electric and be able to run gas.  Going family sedan route it would have been more cost effective to by a fusion hybrid over an electric one.

 

one thing will be interesting is the tax credit on the model 3 tesla....  many off the orders are only feasible for the buyers signed up based on getting the fed tax credit which will expire shortly for tesla