Ukraine: How might the war end? Five scenarios

[Mainecat]

Ukraine: How might the war end? Five scenarios

Putin ousted 

And what of Vladimir Putin himself? When he launched his invasion, he declared: "We are ready for any outcome." 

But what if that outcome was him losing power? It might seem unthinkable. Yet the world has changed in recent days and such things are now thought about. Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at Kings College, London, wrote this week: "It is now as likely that there will be regime change in Moscow as in Kyiv." 

Why might he say this? Well, perhaps Mr Putin pursues a disastrous war. Thousands of Russian soldiers die. The economic sanctions bite. Mr Putin loses popular support. Perhaps there is the threat of popular revolution. He uses Russia's internal security forces to suppress that opposition. But this turns sour and enough members of Russia's military, political and economic elite turn against him. The West makes clear that if Putin goes and is replaced by a more moderate leader, then Russia will see the lifting of some sanctions and a restoration of normal diplomatic relations. There is a bloody palace coup and Putin is out. Again, this may not seem likely right now. But it may not be implausible if the people who have benefited from Mr Putin no longer believe he can defend their interests. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60602936 

[teamgreen02]

The war will end when Russia controls Kiev.  It's taking Putin longer than he thought but he isn't going to give up.

Right now Europe is financing Russia's war for more oil and gas by buying their oil and gas. Once Russia controls the Ukraine there is really no options for Western Europe.

By taking Ukraine he gets all the minerals, shrinks the western front of Russia, and moves the border further from Moscow.  Strategically it is a good move as long as they can sell their oil and gas.

[DriftBusta]

24 minutes ago, Mainecat said:

Ukraine: How might the war end? Five scenarios

Putin ousted 

And what of Vladimir Putin himself? When he launched his invasion, he declared: "We are ready for any outcome." 

But what if that outcome was him losing power? It might seem unthinkable. Yet the world has changed in recent days and such things are now thought about. Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at Kings College, London, wrote this week: "It is now as likely that there will be regime change in Moscow as in Kyiv." 

Why might he say this? Well, perhaps Mr Putin pursues a disastrous war. Thousands of Russian soldiers die. The economic sanctions bite. Mr Putin loses popular support. Perhaps there is the threat of popular revolution. He uses Russia's internal security forces to suppress that opposition. But this turns sour and enough members of Russia's military, political and economic elite turn against him. The West makes clear that if Putin goes and is replaced by a more moderate leader, then Russia will see the lifting of some sanctions and a restoration of normal diplomatic relations. There is a bloody palace coup and Putin is out. Again, this may not seem likely right now. But it may not be implausible if the people who have benefited from Mr Putin no longer believe he can defend their interests. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60602936 

wow you finally posted a good link.  Maybe you're coming around.     

[Mainecat]

I’m hoping for the last one.

[spin_dry]

The west doesn't really want the war to end. They want a war of attrition in the Ukraine that bleeds Russia dry. 

[SkisNH]

10 hours ago, teamgreen02 said:

The war will end when Russia controls Kiev.  It's taking Putin longer than he thought but he isn't going to give up.

Right now Europe is financing Russia's war for more oil and gas by buying their oil and gas. Once Russia controls the Ukraine there is really no options for Western Europe.

By taking Ukraine he gets all the minerals, shrinks the western front of Russia, and moves the border further from Moscow.  Strategically it is a good move as long as they can sell their oil and gas.

Europe is paying the price for going all in on green energy...the truth always comes out, and the truth is we run our nations on oil and gas. They allowed Putin to weaponize energy. 

They are also paying the price for allowing Georgia and Crimea to fall with not even a whimper from the west.

[DriftBusta]

1 hour ago, SkisNH said:

Europe is paying the price for going all in on green energy...the truth always comes out, and the truth is we run our nations on oil and gas. They allowed Putin to weaponize energy. 

They are also paying the price for allowing Georgia and Crimea to fall with not even a whimper from the west.

I'd agree with all of that.  I don't think Putin had in his calculus just how strong the rest of the world would react and unify against him.  I think as a result his days are numbered as the leader of Russia, and thats still assuming that he conquers Ukraine as well.

[SkisNH]

8 minutes ago, DriftBusta said:

I'd agree with all of that.  I don't think Putin had in his calculus just how strong the rest of the world would react and unify against him.  I think as a result his days are numbered as the leader of Russia, and thats still assuming that he conquers Ukraine as well.

Hard saying...but we do know appeasement brought on more aggression.  As Biden said "if it's just a small incursion that would have been okay"

[DriftBusta]

5 minutes ago, SkisNH said:

Hard saying...but we do know appeasement brought on more aggression.  As Biden said "if it's just a small incursion that would have been okay"

Yup   

[ford_428cj]

43 minutes ago, SkisNH said:

Hard saying...but we do know appeasement brought on more aggression.  As Biden said "if it's just a small incursion that would have been okay"

Good post.

[ford_428cj]

 

[teamgreen02]

3 hours ago, SkisNH said:

Europe is paying the price for going all in on green energy...the truth always comes out, and the truth is we run our nations on oil and gas. They allowed Putin to weaponize energy. 

They are also paying the price for allowing Georgia and Crimea to fall with not even a whimper from the west.

Yup, the greens shut down the nuke plants in Germany and made their country totally dependent on Russian oil and gas with no real alternatives.  

As messed up as our energy policies are in the US, we are still the leading producer of oil in the world.  Canada is number 5, Mexico is number 11.  Time to get serious about doubling down on North America production. 

At the same time, fast track the permitting and approval of 10-20 massive nuke plants across the country similar to Hinkley Point C in the UK, rated at 3,200 MW.  Shovel ready jobs.  The plant design is already done, operating in France, China, and soon the UK.  

[ford_428cj]

9 minutes ago, teamgreen02 said:

Yup, the greens shut down the nuke plants in Germany and made their country totally dependent on Russian oil and gas with no real alternatives.  

As messed up as our energy policies are in the US, we are still the leading producer of oil in the world.  Canada is number 5, Mexico is number 11.  Time to get serious about doubling down on North America production. 

At the same time, fast track the permitting and approval of 10-20 massive nuke plants across the country similar to Hinkley Point C in the UK, rated at 3,200 MW.  Shovel ready jobs.  The plant design is already done, operating in France, China, and soon the UK.  

You'll get ugly windmills & like it.

[spin_dry]

1 hour ago, teamgreen02 said:

Yup, the greens shut down the nuke plants in Germany and made their country totally dependent on Russian oil and gas with no real alternatives.  

As messed up as our energy policies are in the US, we are still the leading producer of oil in the world.  Canada is number 5, Mexico is number 11.  Time to get serious about doubling down on North America production. 

At the same time, fast track the permitting and approval of 10-20 massive nuke plants across the country similar to Hinkley Point C in the UK, rated at 3,200 MW.  Shovel ready jobs.  The plant design is already done, operating in France, China, and soon the UK.  

Where do you suppose the workers are going to come from for all this new stuff? You gonna pull em out your ass? 

[Anler]

4 minutes ago, spin_dry said:

Where do you suppose the workers are going to come from for all this new stuff? You gonna pull em out your ass? 

Don't worry, unemployment is gonna start going up bigly this fall. Maybe sooner if the war lords get us in a tangle 

[spin_dry]

Just now, Anler said:

Don't worry, unemployment is gonna start going up bigly this fall. Maybe sooner if the war lords get us in a tangle 

11 million open positions. Layoffs better start now. 

[Anler]

Just now, spin_dry said:

11 million open positions. Layoffs better start now. 

Minimum wagers won't be able to afford to drive to work this summer. 

[spin_dry]

1 minute ago, Anler said:

Minimum wagers won't be able to afford to drive to work this summer. 

Gas has been a bargain for decades.  Virtually free of inflationary pressure. How is that? 

[Anler]

1 minute ago, spin_dry said:

Gas has been a bargain for decades.  Virtually free of inflationary pressure. How is that? 

As it should be, it's a plentiful resource. So why are the aristocrats sabotaging our energy and food?

[spin_dry]

1 minute ago, Anler said:

As it should be, it's a plentiful resource. So why are the aristocrats sabotaging our energy and food?

Energy has been subsidized by the government for decades. Socialized energy. Opiate for the masses. 

[Anler]

Just now, spin_dry said:

Energy has been subsidized by the government for decades. Socialized energy. Opiate for the masses. 

Energy is heavily taxed by the govt. The commodities industry is controlled by a global cartel of psychopaths. Hence why every independent energy producing country is controlled by a radical evil dictator who must be stopped at all costs. So there is no cheap energy...

[spin_dry]

3 minutes ago, Anler said:

Energy is heavily taxed by the govt. The commodities industry is controlled by a global cartel of psychopaths. Hence why every independent energy producing country is controlled by a radical evil dictator who must be stopped at all costs. So there is no cheap energy...

 Those psychopaths are subsidized by the US government. Also protected by the US military. The gift is inflation proof gasoline. Every now and then they need a profit boost. 

[Jimmy Snacks]

.

 

Edited March 6, 2022 by Jimmy Snacks

[SkisNH]

41 minutes ago, spin_dry said:

11 million open positions. Layoffs better start now. 

2 million less people working than pre-pandemic....

[Anler]

24 minutes ago, spin_dry said:

 Those psychopaths are subsidized by the US government. Also protected by the US military. The gift is inflation proof gasoline. Every now and then they need a profit boost. 

They are subsidized by all govts. And yeah, it gives us a pretty good picture of who really pulls the strings of policy and warfare. We pay to enrich them and we pay for their theft with our blood and money. And then we pay the govt a tax on their products on top of that. So who gets Putin's oil and gas when we are done with them and who gets the minerals in Ukraine after they get wrecked? The good guys!