We have flattened the curve, now we’re behind it

[AKIQPilot]

Opinion | Healthcare professionals: We have flattened the curve, now we’re behind it

 

Okanogan County health officials want to reduce any risk that might create new Covid-19 cases. As independent healthcare professionals, we contend this is not a realistic or appropriate health policy goal.

The original justification for the economic shutdown and stay-at-home order was to “flatten the curve.” This was a nuclear strategy that many healthcare professionals felt compelled to support in the context of a rapidly-evolving landscape surrounding an unfamiliar virus. However, with data accumulation we have learned that the virus is less deadly than originally feared and primarily harmful only for a specific, identifiable portion of the population. Stanford data and other epidemiologists are reporting an infectious fatality rate closer to 0.1 to 0.2%, a risk appreciably lower than previous World Health Organization estimates 20 to 30 times higher. The outdated WHO estimates are still being cited by state and local health officials to justify the continued lockdown.

 

According to the latest data from the state Department of Health, 90 percent of all Washington Covid-19 deaths are individuals 60 or older and more than half are age 80 or older. Sixty-one percent of Covid-19 deaths are associated with long-term care facilities. These older, vulnerable individuals should be protected, and we should concentrate our quarantine and isolation efforts where they will be effective.

 

It is neither prudent nor responsible to suggest that healthy individuals under the age of 60 remain at home indefinitely. People have done exactly what they were told. They stayed home, closed their businesses, and flattened the curve. Most of the rationale and data supporting the shutdown has collapsed, but some health officials and government leaders won’t let it go. Unless we want to annihilate all faith in public health authorities, we shouldn’t move the goalpost from “flatten the curve” to “no new cases.” In fact, we can expect the number of Covid-19 cases to rise as testing increases.

Perhaps the most damaging, unsubstantiated, and unproven theory surrounding Covid-19 is that of asymptomatic spread. Initially, because many people tested positive without displaying symptoms, it was posited that these individuals were silent carriers. Because the virus was new, it was thought safest lock down even seemingly healthy individuals because of the risk that they may be disease vectors. While it has yet to be proven that asymptomatic transmission of Covid-19 can’t happen, there is no evidence that this is occurring on a wide scale. The idea that we should live in a perpetual state of fear that any healthy person could be spreading the virus is not backed by scientific evidence.

 

In King County, the epicenter of Washington’s outbreak, public health officials have now estimated that the transmission rate of the virus has been consistently below 1.0 since March 29. This is great news! We should be following the science and data toward resuming our lives.

Washington schools were prematurely canceled for the entire year, despite a growing number of reports from public health and infectious disease experts suggesting children spread the virus far less than adults. Montana and Idaho are sending their kids back to school. And while other states are reopening, Washington counties are expected to go three weeks with no new cases in order to move to Phase 2.

In March, model after model predicted severe hospital bed and ICU shortages, even with social distancing. Thankfully, these models were wrong. The predicted shortages never manifested. We have beds. We have ICU capacity. We have ventilator capacity. The system is not overwhelmed. In fact, we dismantled our field hospital and sent 500 ventilators to New York. Meanwhile, hospitals all over the state are furloughing thousands of healthcare workers amid multi-million-dollar budget shortfalls.

 

Many health officials in rural and non-profit hospitals are receiving substantial government grants and subsidies to remain operable, but that doesn’t mean they should ignore the financial plight of other Washington hospitals and businesses that are hemorrhaging.

It is futile to attempt to bring the risk of contracting COVID-19 down to zero. Free people make choices every day that increase their risk of dying. Your chances of dying while driving a car is almost double your chance of dying while driving an SUV. We don’t ban cars. Hundreds of children drown in pools each year. We don’t ban pools. Five thousand Americans choke and die on solid food every year. We don’t ban solid food. The truth is, we have accepted that there are trade-offs between the risk of death and quality of life, and we make them every day.

The virus shutdown is trading lives too. Depression, anxiety, suicide, obesity and all of the other risks from inactivity and isolation will result in death. As healthcare professionals, we are seeing them in our practices and we are alarmed.

There is no clinical data supporting the restraint and quarantine of healthy individuals to prevent the spread of a virus, and that is proving true with COVID-19. It is a travesty that our response to this crisis has been to saddle future generations with crippling debt, bankrupt hundreds of businesses, and force unemployment to Great Depression levels.

The “no new cases” criteria put out by Governor Inslee is not realistic for most communities. The virus is here to stay. We must learn to live with it and mitigate its effects to the best of our ability. Washington should be following New York Governor Cuomo’s lead by allowing statewide restrictions to expire and returning control to the local governments that are in the best position to monitor the needs of their communities. If a local area has sufficient hospital bed and ICU capacity and the transmission rate is below 1.0, then a community is in a good position to begin safely reopening.

Many health professionals disagree with our government’s current plan but are afraid to speak out. We can no longer remain silent. It’s time to change course. In Washington, we have flattened the curve, and now we’re behind it. We must protect and shelter the aged and vulnerable and allow the healthy population to resume living.

By: Karl W. Lambert, Medical Director, ARNP, Redimedi Integrative Clinic; Dr. Gillian Shaw, MD, Cashmere Redimedi Integrative Clinic; Amy Wood, ARNP, Redimedi Integrative Clinic; Shawn Needham, R.Ph and Janet Needham, R.Ph, Moses Lake Professional Pharmacy.

https://www.wenatcheeworld.com/news/coronavirus/opinion-healthcare-professionals-we-have-flattened-the-curve-now-we-re-behind-it/article_04e65b7c-9575-11ea-bb58-177808efba6e.html?fbclid=IwAR1IRvcTuSvus0f7zGYvppennOTKbkrzxJyPZwdGz1VMimFkuuOiYwRBYmY

[Cold War]

Pretty sad .  She has lost everyone but media and ugly young white layabouts .    Tyranny at its finest,  

 

[Edmo]

Good that all these sheriffs are standing up for the people. 
I bet there’s many more that are quietly doing the same.

[Zambroski]

3 minutes ago, Edmo said:

Good that all these sheriffs are standing up for the people. 
I bet there’s many more that are quietly doing the same.

Oh, I think many LEO’s are not doing much enforcing Of this idiocy at all.  These aren’t laws, they are fascist orders.

[Mainecat]

If you take New York out the country is still rising.

[AKIQPilot]

5 minutes ago, Mainecat said:

If you take New York out the country is still rising.

People die every single day.  Nothing will stop that.  

[BOHICA]

20 minutes ago, Mainecat said:

If you take New York out the country is still rising.

If you take New York and those that are around New York the US numbers would look better then 98% of the world.

[Mainecat]

2 hours ago, AKIQPilot said:

People die every single day.  Nothing will stop that.  

 

1 hour ago, BOHICA said:

If you take New York and those that are around New York the US numbers would look better then 98% of the world.

Thanks Trump. 

[Ez ryder]

11 minutes ago, Mainecat said:

 

Thanks Trump. 

fucking dolt 

btw you ignored a question 

so I will ask again 

you disapprove of trumps covid actions this is clear. 

what is your opinion of how Cuomo responded to covid ? 

[Jimmy Snacks]

2 hours ago, AKIQPilot said:

People die every single day.  Nothing will stop that.  

Wow....and if you don’t test there won’t be any new cases....amazing.

[Doos]

2 hours ago, Mainecat said:

If you take New York out the country is still rising.

Testing has increased dramatically. Hospitalization and death in decline.

Now let’s see if you can put it all together.

[snopro31]

23 minutes ago, Jimmy Snacks said:

Wow....and if you don’t test there won’t be any new cases....amazing.

that is correct

[BOHICA]

37 minutes ago, Jimmy Snacks said:

Wow....and if you don’t test there won’t be any new cases....amazing.

That is how China, South Korea and likes beat it

[snopro31]

1 minute ago, BOHICA said:

That is how China, South Korea and likes beat it

We've had no new cases for 5ish days.  But when testing numbers keep dropping what does one expect. 

Oh well.  Life must go on. 

[Matt]

I did this analysis of data from Georgia yesterday since I wasn't seeing anything on the news or "tracker" sites that wasn't just a cumulative figure.

If you only ever look at cumulative figures, you'll think the sky is falling.  While the cumulative figure is important, it's not a measure of the virus' pervasiveness.

If you look at Georgia, which has been open for three weeks, you notice a couple things. The rate of testing has increased markedly.  But even with increased testing, the number of positive tests daily is trending downward.  Their "positive test" count per day is about the same now as it was at the end of March when they were doing 1/4 as many tests.

Georgia is looking good and fortunately, to this point, the dem screeching about "you're gonna kill us all" by reopening has proven to be bullshit there.

The fucking media malfeasance around this thing and the way they're presenting the data is borderline criminal.  And most Americans are far too dumb to make any real sense of the numbers.

These are my plots of the official numbers from Georgia with polynomial "best fit" lines applied.  THIS IS WHAT THE MEDIA SHOULD BE PRODUCING...

Edited May 16, 2020 by Matt

[Matt]

32 minutes ago, BOHICA said:

That is how China, South Korea and likes beat it

South Korea is still testing and tracking like crazy.  South Korea beat it because they had tests early and used them.  We had chest puffing and bravado from both sides of the aisle.

[Jimmy Snacks]

36 minutes ago, BOHICA said:

That is how China, South Korea and likes beat it

 Bullshit 

2 minutes ago, Matt said:

South Korea is still testing and tracking like crazy.  South Korea beat it because they had tests early and used them.  We had chest puffing and bravado from both sides of the aisle.

Well said. 

[Anler]

Fuck the curve open up now!

[Doos]

11 minutes ago, Matt said:

South Korea is still testing and tracking like crazy.  South Korea beat it because they had tests early and used them.  We had chest puffing and bravado from both sides of the aisle.

Good stuff Matt. What was done in S Korea would never fly here, Americans don’t like being told what to do.

[BOHICA]

23 minutes ago, Matt said:

South Korea is still testing and tracking like crazy.  South Korea beat it because they had tests early and used them.  We had chest puffing and bravado from both sides of the aisle.

They are 72nd in test per capita. They aren’t testing that much compared to a lot of countries.

 

[frenchy]

1 hour ago, BOHICA said:

That is how China, South Korea and likes beat it

by not testing?

[Matt]

3 minutes ago, BOHICA said:

They are 72nd in test per capita. They aren’t testing that much compared to a lot of countries.

 

They're testing when it makes sense to test now.  Because they were early with testing and beat down the flare-ups, they don't need to test willy nilly.  They can test only those showing symptoms, contact trace, and squash flare ups before they spread.  Don't need a high per-capita testing rate for that.  They'll accept levels of contact tracing, and universal mask wearing, that we'll never accept here... so we need to test maniacally.