Weather forecasts

[Highmark]

Honestly I don't think weather forecasts for winter storms is any better than when I was a kid.   So much reliance on the models.   When I was young weatherman would be talking about storms coming 5-7 days in advance.   I think some of those meteorologists were more accurate predicting snow totals than they are today.  Get sick of hearing today well we won't know the exact path or totals until a few hours before the storm. 

 

This years winter storms have been a bit different from years past.   Snow bands seem much more narrow and the arctic air behind them has been less and far less in duration.  Seems far fewer Alberta clippers than normal.   Those are always what keep the northwoods trails with some fresh snow.    

Edited February 15, 2023 by Highmark

[f7ben]

Just now, Highmark said:

Honestly I don't think weather forecasts for winter storms is any better than when I was a kid.   So much reliance on the models.   When I was young weatherman would be talking about storms coming 5-7 days in advance.   I think some of those meteorologists were more accurate predicting snow totals than they are today.

 

This years winter storms have been a bit different from years past.   Snow bands seem much more narrow and the arctic air behind them has been less and far less in duration.  Seems far fewer Alberta clippers than normal.   Those are always what keep the northwoods trails with some fresh snow.    

I don’t think we’ve had a single clipper all year 

[Highmark]

3 minutes ago, f7ben said:

I don’t think we’ve had a single clipper all year 

Yep...and very few storms where the snow band is very wide at all.  The one hitting us tonight is very narrow as was the last one.  A lot of time when we get hit in east central Iowa northern WI will get at least some and vice versa.   No such thing this year.  Many of the lows have taken a more easterly path instead of up across lake Mich where Northern WI will get some. 

Edited February 15, 2023 by Highmark

[Jerry 976]

 

[poopooforme]

My Dad always said "a good weatherman is 60 percent right 30 percent of the time...."

[sleepybrew]

when i was a kid they aimed at 3 days, and were usually pretty close. now it's all models models models. and it seems they miss or wait till we already know what's happening. then the next day it's blame the models. one thing for sure, if they predict rain for next saturday's bbq, you can bet your ass it will be raining. if they predict sun, well you are screwed

[ActionfigureJoe]

I like Ryan y’all. He has pretty good forecasts but is honest about forecasting. He says anything past 72 hours remains witchcraft. Too many variables with the patterns becoming more erratic. The trails where I lived have been shut down two years in a row. That’s damn strange 

[Jerry 976]

I like John's

 

[Catalina]

Here's the forecast you want...

 

 

[Highmark]

45 minutes ago, ActionfigureJoe said:

I like Ryan y’all. He has pretty good forecasts but is honest about forecasting. He says anything past 72 hours remains witchcraft. Too many variables with the patterns becoming more erratic. The trails where I lived have been shut down two years in a row. That’s damn strange 

I hit some of his stuff on SM.   Asked him on a live feed yesterday my area for this storm.   He said 2-4".   Local saying 4-8" and Mr. Optimism (John Dee) has us in 8-12".  Yesterday JD had us in 12+.    

[ViperGTS/Z1]

In my area, they have gotten much more accurate since I was a kid in predicting whether it will be rain or snow....or snow turning to rain.

It can sometimes be a fine line for us living next to the Atlantic on whether a storm brings in warm air from the ocean.....much more accurate in recent years on depicting where the rain/snow line will setup. Not perfect but pretty damn good.

[ActionfigureJoe]

1 hour ago, Highmark said:

I hit some of his stuff on SM.   Asked him on a live feed yesterday my area for this storm.   He said 2-4".   Local saying 4-8" and Mr. Optimism (John Dee) has us in 8-12".  Yesterday JD had us in 12+.    

John Dee is still honing his craft?  

John and his wife are really good people. Met them once on a UP ride. But damn….he really does give false hope. 

[Bontz]

Only thing they can predict with any accuracy is WIND.  If they say it's gonna be windy, it's gonna be friggin' windy.  Other than that, it's like throwing a dart at a dart board and whatever it hits is the forecast.  I can't believe more people don't try to be meteorologists ... where else can you be paid to be wrong every day?!?