Platinum Contributing Member SnowRider Posted August 2, 2016 Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted August 2, 2016 Demographics.....have I ever mentioned demographics and the electoral college? An excellent look at PA: He’ll certainly try. Without Pennsylvania, an emerging consensus says, Trump has no realistic path to the White House. In 2012, a late surge in some polls for Mitt Romney gave hope to Republicans that they could win the state. Those votes failed to materialize in that election, and are unlikely to in 2016. As in most other states, there's a large partisan difference between Pennsylvania’s major metropolitan area, Philadelphia, and the rest of the state. As urban areas have leaned more Democratic and rural areas have become more Republican, metro Philadelphia has become the Democrats' firewall in the state. The Democratic margin of victory in Philadelphia's five core counties -- Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery and Philadelphia -- has expanded since 1992. That year, Democrats carried the five counties by 304,000 votes. So far, the Democratic high-water mark for the metro area was in 2008, when Barack Obama carried it by 682,000 votes. That margin fell a bit in 2012, when he carried it by 615,000 votes. The rest of the state has been a different story: Outside the Philadelphia area, Pennsylvania is a true swing state. Looking only at the counties outside the Philadelphia area, Democrats won in 1992 and 1996, but Republicans have won every election since. George W. Bush won the rest of the state by 355,000 votes in 2004, John McCain won it by 62,000 votes in 2008, and Romney expanded the margin back to 306,000 votes in 2012. But Democrats have one other firewall in the state: the increasingly well-educated Pittsburgh area, home to Carnegie Mellon University and a thriving post-industrial economy. Roughly 45 percent of people over age 25 in Allegheny County have at least a bachelor's degree, compared with 35 percent for Pennsylvania as a whole. Starting after 1992, when Ross Perot did well in the county, Allegheny has produced a consistent margin for Democrats of 80,000 to 100,000 votes. Between metro Philadelphia and Allegheny County, Republicans start with around a 400,000 vote deficit -- more votes than they are likely to scrounge up in the rest of the state. Using 2012 demographics and turnout, and holding the metro Philadelphia and Allegheny County totals the same, Trump would have to get over 61 percent of the vote in the rest of the state, about 5 points higher than Romney got in 2012 or Bush got in 2004. Just looking at geography, maybe that 5 percentage points seems within the realm of possibility. But a look at the demographics changes that. As of the 2015 Census estimate, Pennsylvania's population is 77.4 percent white non-Hispanic, down from 78.6 percent in 2012. Roughly 29 percent of the adult white population in the state has at least a bachelor's degree. And let's assume an electorate that will be 47 percent male. Putting those three together gets us to an approximate share of the voters who will be white males without a college degree: about 25 percent. http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-08-01/demographics-turned-pennsylvania-blue-and-democrats-keep-gaining Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Platinum Contributing Member Skidooski Posted August 2, 2016 Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted August 2, 2016 Quote So far, the Democratic high-water mark for the metro area was in 2008 And that was it's peak for the Democratic party....I hope you enjoyed it. Four years ago it declined and now with HillBitch it will be even worse yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Platinum Contributing Member SnowRider Posted August 2, 2016 Author Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted August 2, 2016 43 minutes ago, Skidooski said: And that was it's peak for the Democratic party....I hope you enjoyed it. Four years ago it declined and now with HillBitch it will be even worse yet. Do you understamd the shift in demographics? How about the educated voters supporting the D's? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt.Storm Posted August 2, 2016 Share Posted August 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, SnowRider said: Do you understamd the shift in demographics? How about the educated voters supporting the D's? Most of the the time brains get in the way of common sense...just look at your educated dumb ass remarks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Platinum Contributing Member SnowRider Posted August 2, 2016 Author Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted August 2, 2016 Yes - common sense - waiting for the trickle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Platinum Contributing Member Skidooski Posted August 2, 2016 Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted August 2, 2016 5 minutes ago, SnowRider said: Do you understamd the shift in demographics? How about the educated voters supporting the D's? I quoted a fact from your own OP Refute your own post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Platinum Contributing Member SnowRider Posted August 2, 2016 Author Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted August 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Skidooski said: I quoted a fact from your own OP Refute your own post Voter turnout and demographics are two different things . $100 Hillary takes PA? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Platinum Contributing Member Skidooski Posted August 2, 2016 Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted August 2, 2016 Just now, SnowRider said: Voter turnout and demographics are two different things . $100 Hillary takes PA? But in the case of this thread and the premis you started it on, they go hand and hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Platinum Contributing Member SnowRider Posted August 2, 2016 Author Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted August 2, 2016 Just now, Skidooski said: But in the case of this thread and the premis you started it on, they go hand and hand. $100 Hillary takes PA? After alll - according to you the R's have the demographic advantage.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Platinum Contributing Member Skidooski Posted August 2, 2016 Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted August 2, 2016 Just now, SnowRider said: $100 Hillary takes PA? After alll - according to you the R's have the demographic advantage.... On the bold Your bait stinks dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1jkw Posted August 2, 2016 Share Posted August 2, 2016 29 minutes ago, SnowRider said: $100 Hillary takes PA? After alll - according to you the R's have the demographic advantage.... I live in PA, unless the cities Phil. and Pitt. have large turnouts I think Trump will win, unless he keeps screwing up like he did with the Gold Star Family. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elkhorn Posted August 2, 2016 Share Posted August 2, 2016 Lol, you also said trump would t even get the nomination slope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Platinum Contributing Member SnowRider Posted August 2, 2016 Author Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted August 2, 2016 I said several times I hope he's the nominee. Sorry foghorn. You can't decipher black and white facts in a post you're reading let alone comment on what someone said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elkhorn Posted August 2, 2016 Share Posted August 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, SnowRider said: I said several times I hope he's the nominee. Sorry foghorn. You can't decipher black and white facts in a post you're reading let alone comment on what someone said. So the words "dump has no chance" means nothing now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Platinum Contributing Member Skidooski Posted August 2, 2016 Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted August 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Elkhorn said: So the words "dump has no chance" means nothing now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momorider Posted August 2, 2016 Share Posted August 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, Elkhorn said: So the words "dump has no chance" means nothing now Now the clown is trying to say Thrillery isn't a liar and a smoldering POS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt.Storm Posted August 2, 2016 Share Posted August 2, 2016 9 hours ago, SnowRider said: Demographics.....have I ever mentioned demographics and the electoral college? An excellent look at PA: He’ll certainly try. Without Pennsylvania, an emerging consensus says, Trump has no realistic path to the White House. In 2012, a late surge in some polls for Mitt Romney gave hope to Republicans that they could win the state. Those votes failed to materialize in that election, and are unlikely to in 2016. As in most other states, there's a large partisan difference between Pennsylvania’s major metropolitan area, Philadelphia, and the rest of the state. As urban areas have leaned more Democratic and rural areas have become more Republican, metro Philadelphia has become the Democrats' firewall in the state. The Democratic margin of victory in Philadelphia's five core counties -- Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery and Philadelphia -- has expanded since 1992. That year, Democrats carried the five counties by 304,000 votes. So far, the Democratic high-water mark for the metro area was in 2008, when Barack Obama carried it by 682,000 votes. That margin fell a bit in 2012, when he carried it by 615,000 votes. The rest of the state has been a different story: Outside the Philadelphia area, Pennsylvania is a true swing state. Looking only at the counties outside the Philadelphia area, Democrats won in 1992 and 1996, but Republicans have won every election since. George W. Bush won the rest of the state by 355,000 votes in 2004, John McCain won it by 62,000 votes in 2008, and Romney expanded the margin back to 306,000 votes in 2012. But Democrats have one other firewall in the state: the increasingly well-educated Pittsburgh area, home to Carnegie Mellon University and a thriving post-industrial economy. Roughly 45 percent of people over age 25 in Allegheny County have at least a bachelor's degree, compared with 35 percent for Pennsylvania as a whole. Starting after 1992, when Ross Perot did well in the county, Allegheny has produced a consistent margin for Democrats of 80,000 to 100,000 votes. Between metro Philadelphia and Allegheny County, Republicans start with around a 400,000 vote deficit -- more votes than they are likely to scrounge up in the rest of the state. Using 2012 demographics and turnout, and holding the metro Philadelphia and Allegheny County totals the same, Trump would have to get over 61 percent of the vote in the rest of the state, about 5 points higher than Romney got in 2012 or Bush got in 2004. Just looking at geography, maybe that 5 percentage points seems within the realm of possibility. But a look at the demographics changes that. As of the 2015 Census estimate, Pennsylvania's population is 77.4 percent white non-Hispanic, down from 78.6 percent in 2012. Roughly 29 percent of the adult white population in the state has at least a bachelor's degree. And let's assume an electorate that will be 47 percent male. Putting those three together gets us to an approximate share of the voters who will be white males without a college degree: about 25 percent. http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-08-01/demographics-turned-pennsylvania-blue-and-democrats-keep-gaining Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoslinger Posted August 2, 2016 Share Posted August 2, 2016 how in the fuck does anyone see how this guy gets a path to the WH? he's disliked by more latinos, blacks, women, moderate republicans than romney. there's only so many dimwitted white voters in the country. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Platinum Contributing Member SnowRider Posted August 2, 2016 Author Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted August 2, 2016 Cappy - $100 Hillary wins PA? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt.Storm Posted August 2, 2016 Share Posted August 2, 2016 11 minutes ago, SnowRider said: Cappy - $100 Hillary wins PA? 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt.Storm Posted August 2, 2016 Share Posted August 2, 2016 (edited) Tell you what if he losses in PA I'll pay your next years cm for here right away. If he wins you pay mine of course. Edited August 2, 2016 by Capt.Storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt.Storm Posted August 2, 2016 Share Posted August 2, 2016 CENK UYGUR, HOST, "YOUNG TURKS": I've got Trump at 279-259... I gave him Florida, Ohio --KARL: You said he was a loser a minute ago.UYGUR: No, listen, so in his life, he's had a great track record of failure, bankruptcies, running from Vietnam, everything like that. But he's a populist candidate when the country's angry and you run and it's the most establishment candidate we've ever seen against him.It was a terrible idea by the Democrats to support Hillary Clinton.STEPHANOPOULOS: So you're so hot against him today because you think he's going to win.UYGUR: I'm very worried -- and if the Democrats are not really, really worried that, in this populist time Donald Trump doesn't have an excellent chance to win, they're completely wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt.Storm Posted August 2, 2016 Share Posted August 2, 2016 (edited) Trump: I only want to admit those who support our values Thursday, 21 Jul 2016 | 10:58 Carlo Allegri | Reuters Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Toledo, Ohio, July 27, 2016. The most recent polls say Trump is losing Pennsylvania. Separate measures by Suffolk University and NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist put Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton up by 9 percentage points. But I think the polls are wrong. How do I know? Because I live in Pennsylvania — have for all my life, even though I work in the New York/New Jersey metro area. I spent the first 18 years of my journalism career covering Pennsylvania politics. I know what lots of Pennsylvanians want. They want Trump, and not even so much because of who he is personally but rather what he represents — that elusive "other" who will be more responsive to their wants, needs and, yes, fears. Edited August 2, 2016 by Capt.Storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Platinum Contributing Member SnowRider Posted August 2, 2016 Author Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted August 2, 2016 The R's are worthless. Just fucking worthless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oleroule Posted August 2, 2016 Share Posted August 2, 2016 (edited) we aren't a democracy. #doYOURjob Edited August 2, 2016 by oleroule Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.