Morgan Stanley says economy is on 'recession watch' as bond market flashes warning

[DriftBusta]

11 minutes ago, f7ben said:

Man.....has it been 4 years since you opened that cracker jack box and found a shiny  nameplate and single ply business card that said FA?

Doesnt seem like that long....

Listen bud.....you keep playing like everything is honky dory....just promise not to kill yourself when all your clients are begging you to.

My mentors and trainers all have 20+ years in the biz, what’s happening now isn’t even remotely close to the last recession or even the one before it.  I’ve said several times that I’m not a stock picker or an analyst, because that is a separate and distinctly different practice/skill than what I do.  Then you have dipshits like Smales thinks thats an opening to ridicule me when in fact all large advisory firms have separate departments for those people, and they’re further broken down by industry sectors or even investment types.  Many of them are egghead smart with PhDs and advanced certifications like CFA.   I work for a Fortune 400 company and get to use that level and amount of analysts to help build portfolios. You’re playing both analyst and advisor.  All I’m saying is don’t be so sure of yourself.  

9 minutes ago, ArcticCrusher said:

I think the more important question would be why the fuck would you want to own bonds if you had millions?

You might be surprised what many high net worth folks have in their portfolios, including bonds.  And let’s not forget, some of these bonds were bought 10-20 years ago when bond rates were much better.  I have some clients that are holding bonds that are yielding north of 7%.    

[ArcticCrusher]

3 minutes ago, DriftBusta said:

 

You might be surprised what many high net worth folks have in their portfolios, including bonds.  And let’s not forget, some of these bonds were bought 10-20 years ago when bond rates were much better.  I have some clients that are holding bonds that are yielding north of 7%.    

Nothing surprises me.  Hey I had a GIC that paid about 20% interest back when Trudeau Sr. was PM.

My point was why would anyone be buying them now?  Many still think the Brady Bunch portfolio of 60% equities and 40% bonds is still the best position to be in.

[f7ben]

18 minutes ago, DriftBusta said:

My mentors and trainers all have 20+ years in the biz, what’s happening now isn’t even remotely close to the last recession or even the one before it.  I’ve said several times that I’m not a stock picker or an analyst, because that is a separate and distinctly different practice/skill than what I do.  Then you have dipshits like Smales thinks thats an opening to ridicule me when in fact all large advisory firms have separate departments for those people, and they’re further broken down by industry sectors or even investment types.  Many of them are egghead smart with PhDs and advanced certifications like CFA.   I work for a Fortune 400 company and get to use that level and amount of analysts to help build portfolios. You’re playing both analyst and advisor.  All I’m saying is don’t be so sure of yourself.  

You might be surprised what many high net worth folks have in their portfolios, including bonds.  And let’s not forget, some of these bonds were bought 10-20 years ago when bond rates were much better.  I have some clients that are holding bonds that are yielding north of 7%.    

Look.....I appreciate your advice and willingness to share. My statements are my own outlook only and I would never advise anyone else what to do. It's that simple......I'm not willing to ride out recessions and wait for growth to return. I'll go short when its obvious to me the upside for gains is limited. 

[DriftBusta]

28 minutes ago, ArcticCrusher said:

Nothing surprises me.  Hey I had a GIC that paid about 20% interest back when Trudeau Sr. was PM.

My point was why would anyone be buying them now?  Many still think the Brady Bunch portfolio of 60% equities and 40% bonds is still the best position to be in.

I hear you on the traditional 60/40 advice.  Part of the reason I go to these monthly meetings is to hear how the veterans are doing it in an environment that we’ve been in for the past several years.   

13 minutes ago, f7ben said:

Look.....I appreciate your advice and willingness to share. My statements are my own outlook only and I would never advise anyone else what to do. It's that simple......I'm not willing to ride out recessions and wait for growth to return. I'll go short when its obvious to me the upside for gains is limited. 

 

[Anler]

51 minutes ago, DriftBusta said:

My mentors and trainers all have 20+ years in the biz, what’s happening now isn’t even remotely close to the last recession or even the one before it.  I’ve said several times that I’m not a stock picker or an analyst, because that is a separate and distinctly different practice/skill than what I do.  Then you have dipshits like Smales thinks thats an opening to ridicule me when in fact all large advisory firms have separate departments for those people, and they’re further broken down by industry sectors or even investment types.  Many of them are egghead smart with PhDs and advanced certifications like CFA.   I work for a Fortune 400 company and get to use that level and amount of analysts to help build portfolios. You’re playing both analyst and advisor.  All I’m saying is don’t be so sure of yourself.  

 

I know and agree.