Why Is the Undocumented-Immigrant Population Dropping?

[Mainecat]

Why Is the Undocumented-Immigrant Population Dropping?

 

• Russell Berman

• Jan 26, 2016

 

The “crisis” of illegal immigration has become an article of faith in American  politics.

On the right, Republicans are jockeying over who will lock down the Southern border. “We have people pouring in. They’re pouring in,” Donald Trump says in his latest ad, conjuring an image of invasion that has his supporters dreaming of the “beautiful” wall he has so often promised to build.

The Obama administration disputes Trump, and yet to the astonishment of its Democratic allies, the Department of Homeland Security has relaunched raids to detain and deport hundreds of Central American families that entered the country in the last two years.

So if the situation is that drastic, why does the population of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. keep falling?

That number dropped to 10.9 million in 2014, according to a study published this week by the demographer Robert Warren of the Center for Migration Studies. The population of undocumented immigrants has now fallen every year since 2008, Warren has found, and 2014 marked the first time in a decade that it dropped below 11 million. When Barack Obama took office, the number of undocumented immigrants stood at about 12 million. (Warren’s analysis of Census Bureau data is similar to findings by the Pew Research Center, although Pew’s data suggests that the decline may have leveled off.)

---

The new report, immigration analysts say, is just the latest indication that the rhetoric on the campaign trail is not matching reality. “There’s a serious disconnect between people preying on public fears and spreading misinformation and what we actually know to be happening,” said Tom Jawetz, the vice president of immigration policy at the Center for American Progress and a former Democratic policy staffer at the House Judiciary Committee.

 

The downward trend has even come as welcome news to advocates for tighter immigration laws and enforcement, including those who are among the most strident opponents of granting legal status to those already in the U.S. “It’s good,” said Roy Beck, executive director of Numbers USA. “It does suggest that the situation is not as urgent as it was,” he added, referring to the years between 1990 and 2008, when the population of undocumented immigrants increased significantly.

“There’s a serious disconnect between people are preying on public fears and spreading misinformation and what we actually know to be happening.”

Figuring out exactly why the numbers have fallen is trickier, partly because tracking undocumented immigrants is difficult to begin with. They are, after all, “living in the shadows.” Have more people left the U.S., died, or gained legal status in recent years? Or is the drop primarily due to fewer people coming in? Theories abound, and there are some factors that generate more agreement among immigration analysts than others. For starters, there was the Great Recession. The collapse of the U.S. economy in 2008-2010 played a big part in reducing the flow of border-crossers, since it dulled the jobs magnet that had attracted immigrants in the first place. As the U.S. economy has strengthened in the last few years, the pace of the decline has slowed, but it has not reversed as some had predicted it would.

The other huge factor is Mexico, where a declining birth rate and an improving economy likely have contributed to a drop in the Mexican-born population of undocumented immigrants living in the U.S. by 600,000 since 2010, according to Warren’s study. “The longterm trends in Mexico are driving a lot of this story,” said Randy Capps, director of research at the Migration Policy Institute. A combination of fewer Mexicans entering the workforce and more jobs available at home limits the incentive to venture north. The government has reported that the number of apprehensions along the border has recently dropped to the lowest level in three or four decades. “The flow across the southern border is far, far smaller than it was in previous years” Jawetz said.

“The longterm trends in Mexico are driving a lot of this story.”

The immigrant population would be even lower if it were not for the surge of migrant workers coming from Central America in recent years. While the number of undocumented immigrants from Mexico decreased by 7 percent between 2010 and 2014, the number from Central America rose by 5 percent, Warren found. And his study does not account for a second wave of Central American migrants reported by the federal government in late 2015, which contributed to the Obama administration’s decision to step up its efforts to capture families who had not been granted asylum. But although the influx of women and child migrants has generated a lot of publicity and unease, the vast majority of them have presented themselves to immigration officials at the border in an effort to gain asylum from the violence plaguing their own countries of Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. Unlike many of the Mexican immigrants who enter illegally, “they’re not slipping across the border between ports of entry,” acknowledged Steven Camarota, research director at the Center for Immigration Studies, which advocates for lower overall immigration.

 

A bigger source of debate over why illegal immigration has fallen is whether the Obama administration deserves any credit for a drop that has happened on its watch. Critics in the GOP have assailed the president for refusing to enforce immigration laws, a policy approach that they say culminated in his 2014 decision—thus far blocked by the courts—to shield millions of immigrants from deportation. “I don’t think [Obama] has done anything to  cause this to happen,” Beck said. He and Camarota noted that while the official unemployment rate in the U.S. has fallen steeply, the labor-force participation rate remains near record lows, and sectors like construction that hire a lot of undocumented immigrants have not fully recovered to their pre-recession levels.

Yet Jawetz and other analysts pointed out that additional money and new technologies deployed at the border in the last several years probably have had an effect. And the Obama administration’s more aggressive enforcement during the president’s first term led the National Council of La Raza to denounce him as the “deporter-in-chief.” Tighter border security could make it more expensive for migrants seeking help from smugglers to get into the United States. And analysts on both sides of the debate said that the harsh anti-immigrant rhetoric emanating from some conservatives could have a small deterrent effect as well.

Under normal circumstances, news that the number of undocumented immigrants was dropping might create the political space for a long-awaited overhaul of immigration laws. The overheated presidential campaign suggests that won’t be happening anytime soon. Even among advocates who acknowledge the downward trend, there isn’t much movement. Beck argues that just because the total number of undocumented immigrants has dropped doesn’t mean that tens of thousands aren’t still coming in every year, presenting both economic and security concerns. “Any amount of illegal immigration,” he maintains, “is harmful to the workers of this country.”

 

THANKS OBAMA!

 

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/01/why-is-the-undocumented-immigrant-population-dropping/426612/

Edited September 2, 2016 by Mainecat

[Rw06GT]

Just like the unemployment numbers. All smoke and mirrors from this nightmare adminstration. Thank God this piece of shit goes away soon.

[Mainecat]

Keep telling yourself that.

[Highmark]

Bullshit, if its happening its because of the poor economy.  More American's are desperate and willing to do work they otherwise wouldn't be.  I would think pretty hard information to accurately gather as well. 

Edited September 2, 2016 by Highmark

[Capt.Storm]

even if all that is true how about the drugs/crime coming from Mexico..is that falling also or growing?

[Mainecat]

1 hour ago, Highmark said:

Bullshit, if its happening its because of the poor economy.  More American's are desperate and willing to do work they otherwise wouldn't be.  I would think pretty hard information to accurately gather as well. 

What?

[Capt.Storm]

13 minutes ago, Mainecat said:

What?

lack of jobs silly.

[Highmark]

16 minutes ago, Mainecat said:

What?

MC the fed doesn't keep interest rates basically at zero for this long if the economy is strong and growing like it should.  You can post all the BS you want but that is factual.   The markets have $3.5 trillion worth of QE in them and its the ONLY reason they are where they are.  Total us market cap is around $18 trillion.   Pretty significant %.  We are entering the longest period in our history with ave yearly GDP growth below 3%.   Think about that.  As our population expands so must our economy.   It doesn't take a brain surgeon or Nobel Peace winning economist to see it.  

Edited September 2, 2016 by Highmark

[racer254]

52 minutes ago, Mainecat said:

Keep telling yourself that.

They are undocumented you dope.  There isn't an accurate way to count them.  FFS can you be more naive?

I could tell you there are 50 million here and you wouldn't be able to come close to providing anything that could prove otherwise.

[Momorider]

43 minutes ago, Highmark said:

MC the fed doesn't keep interest rates basically at zero for this long if the economy is strong and growing like it should.  You can post all the BS you want but that is factual.   The markets have $3.5 trillion worth of QE in them and its the ONLY reason they are where they are.  Total us market cap is around $18 trillion.   Pretty significant %.  We are entering the longest period in our history with ave yearly GDP growth below 3%.   Think about that.  As our population expands so must our economy.   It doesn't take a brain surgeon or Nobel Peace winning economist to see it.  

Don't confuse idiots like MaineCUNT with facts  

[Momorider]

36 minutes ago, racer254 said:

They are undocumented you dope.  There isn't an accurate way to count them.  FFS can you be more naive?

I could tell you there are 50 million here and you wouldn't be able to come close to providing anything that could prove otherwise.

They are saying it might be as much as 30 million  That is basically Canada 

Edited September 2, 2016 by Momorider

[racer254]

2 minutes ago, Momorider said:

They are saying it might be as much as 30 million  That is basically Canada 

Yep,

And when these same people talk about canada's hc system, they fail to mention that little fact.

[Mainecat]

1 hour ago, racer254 said:

They are undocumented you dope.  There isn't an accurate way to count them.  FFS can you be more naive?

I could tell you there are 50 million here and you wouldn't be able to come close to providing anything that could prove otherwise.

Yet they count with Trump?

[Mainecat]

1 hour ago, racer254 said:

Yep,

And when these same people talk about canada's hc system, they fail to mention that little fact.

why not 50 million? Let make shit up

[Momorider]

24 minutes ago, racer254 said:

Yep,

And when these same people talk about canada's hc system, they fail to mention that little fact.

Canada's HC system is unsustainable that's a FACT we are having a hard time coming to grips with here it already consumes the majority of out tax dollars and is growing costs are something like 10 times inflation  

[Momorider]

24 minutes ago, Mainecat said:

why not 50 million? Let make shit up

That's been your MO for years McLiar  

[Mainecat]

1 hour ago, Momorider said:

That's been your MO for years McLiar  

Speaking of illegal aliens

[Stephen Hawking]

How do you keep track of the number of "undocumented" immigrants accurately? Wouldn't lack of documentation preclude this?

[Sal Rosenberg]

6 hours ago, Mainecat said:

Speaking of illegal aliens

 

HAHA!!

 

Seriously though, MC , to answer your question , anybody that can run , climb a fence or swim is already over here .  Why do you think Mexico doesn't have an olympic team .

Edited September 2, 2016 by Sal Rosenberg

[Zambroski]

Haven't read all this so if I'm "duping"...my bad.

Wouldn't counting an "undocumented alien" make him/her "documented". This is fucking stupid.

I hear the count on invisible tree frogs is down too.

I may circle back to this but I'd sure bet this article was written by a liberal weenie.

 

[Momorider]

8 hours ago, Mainecat said:

Speaking of illegal aliens

More from McLiar 

[Sleepr2]

9 hours ago, Mainecat said:

why not 50 million? Let make shit up

Go ahead , we've gotten used to blatant lies from you.

[Capt.Storm]

2 hours ago, Zambroski said:

Haven't read all this so if I'm "duping"...my bad.

Wouldn't counting an "undocumented alien" make him/her "documented". This is fucking stupid.

I hear the count on invisible tree frogs is down too.

I may circle back to this but I'd sure bet this article was written by a liberal weenie.

 

ny is trying to issue a id card for them right now...i wonder how many will sign up for it.

? http://www.newsmax.com/US/NYC-Issues-IDs-Illegal-Immigrants/2016/01/13/id/709326/

Edited September 3, 2016 by Capt.Storm