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Federal debt primed to explode.


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  • Platinum Contributing Member

CBO deficit predictions.  :lol:  

https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2017/07/18/cbo-budget-projections-after-two-years-no-better-than-throwing-darts/#241370b967a2

Look at the chart below. It shows the deterioration of CBO predictive accuracy when it comes to the federal budget deficit. The circular markers show how accurate these predictions have been since 2009 in forecasting how large the federal budget deficit would be. As one can see, although CBO estimates are very good for the same year in which they are made, accuracy deteriorates rapidly. By year 3, CBO projections have actually been no better than luck.

The accuracy metric used in the chart above is an industry-standard metric known as "Adjusted R Squared," which, to put it roughly, shows what percentage of variation in what you are trying to predict (the budget deficit) can be explained by your model relative to "throwing darts." So, when we say that the Adjusted R Squared of CBO predictions two years out is 0.57, that means that only 57% of the variation in the actual budget deficit has been predicted by the CBO. (Those interested in technical details should look at the notes below).

 

 

https_%2F%2Fblogs-images.forbes.com%2Ftheapothecary%2Ffiles%2F2017%2F07%2FcbodeficitAccuracy1.jpg

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15 minutes ago, Highmark said:

CBO deficit predictions.  :lol:  

https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2017/07/18/cbo-budget-projections-after-two-years-no-better-than-throwing-darts/#241370b967a2

Look at the chart below. It shows the deterioration of CBO predictive accuracy when it comes to the federal budget deficit. The circular markers show how accurate these predictions have been since 2009 in forecasting how large the federal budget deficit would be. As one can see, although CBO estimates are very good for the same year in which they are made, accuracy deteriorates rapidly. By year 3, CBO projections have actually been no better than luck.

The accuracy metric used in the chart above is an industry-standard metric known as "Adjusted R Squared," which, to put it roughly, shows what percentage of variation in what you are trying to predict (the budget deficit) can be explained by your model relative to "throwing darts." So, when we say that the Adjusted R Squared of CBO predictions two years out is 0.57, that means that only 57% of the variation in the actual budget deficit has been predicted by the CBO. (Those interested in technical details should look at the notes below).

 

 

https_%2F%2Fblogs-images.forbes.com%2Ftheapothecary%2Ffiles%2F2017%2F07%2FcbodeficitAccuracy1.jpg

Well deficit is already over one trillion for 2019 and thats not a prediction. Thats double Obama's last year. 

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1 minute ago, Nazipigdog said:

Well deficit is already over one trillion for 2019 and thats not a prediction. Thats double Obama's last year. 

How is it not?   Do they know exactly the tax receipts for next year?  :lol:  How about you tell me how much you will pay in taxes next year.  

I'm not saying it won't be but its still an analysis.  

Edited by Highmark
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16 minutes ago, Highmark said:

How is it not?   Do they know exactly the tax receipts for next year?  :lol:  How about you tell me how much you will pay in taxes next year.  

I'm not saying it won't be but its still an analysis.  

Oh well, lets just spend $2 trillion!!!!

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Just now, Nazipigdog said:

Oh well, lets just spend $2 trillion!!!!

I don't like the spending either and actually wrote my Senators and congressman to please vote against the bill.   Proud to say all 3 did vote against it.  

 

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3 minutes ago, Highmark said:

I don't like the spending either and actually wrote my Senators and congressman to please vote against the bill.   Proud to say all 3 did vote against it.  

 

blah blah.. Thats all strategy for those faggots. They bought enough votes and the ones who are up for re-election can vote no. After it passes they gobble up as much money as they can for their states. 

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Just now, Nazipigdog said:

blah blah.. Thats all strategy for those faggots. They bought enough votes and the ones who are up for re-election can vote no. After it passes they gobble up as much money as they can for their states. 

I'm not disagreeing there.   Doesn't mean we shouldn't want to keep more of what we earn.   

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3 hours ago, Mainecat said:

It’s gonna take another Democratic Congress and White House to fix it AGAIN

are you for real? your boy spent more money than all other presidents before him 1/2 of our current debt is square on his sholders. you fucks would not even let a budget on the floor for a fucking vote 

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21 minutes ago, spin_dry said:

Anyone with common sense knows that this won’t end well. 

did you think the 10trillion Obama borrowed was a good plan with a solid ending . 

again I am 100% for cutting all spending starting at 25% across the board .then start making real cuts in a bit more discretionary manner.  but you know sure shit what would be said if we even cut all spending across the board 2% 

 

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44 minutes ago, Ez ryder said:

are you for real? your boy spent more money than all other presidents before him 1/2 of our current debt is square on his sholders. you fucks would not even let a budget on the floor for a fucking vote 

Do you sleep a lot?

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What’s the problem.......the trickle will be awesome.....:snack:

 

 

 

Or is it shit that flows downhill.......:dunno:

 

 

:lmao: 

 

 

More increased spending and lower taxes  Repugs are dumb motherfuckers 

Edited by SnowRider
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