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Joe Biden’s disapproval rating reaches new high, according to new poll

The Guardian
EDWARD HELMORE
March 2, 2024 at 11:07 AM
 
<span>Biden’s approval rating came in at 38%, with Trump at 44%.</span><span>Photograph: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</span>
 
Biden’s approval rating came in at 38%, with Trump at 44%.Photograph: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Strong voter disapproval of Joe Biden’s job performance has reached 47% – the highest negative polling number at any point in his presidency, according to a survey published on Saturday.

Related: Michigan primary a test for Biden as key voters turn away over Gaza war

The Siena College-conducted poll, commissioned by the New York Times, showed that Biden currently lags behind likely Republican candidate Donald Trump 43% to 48% in registered voters nationally.

The survey found that just one in four voters (24%) think the country is moving in the right direction – a key question in the run-up to a national election – and more than twice as many voters said that Biden’s policies had personally hurt them than those who said they had helped.

Of the two-thirds of the country that feels the nation is headed in the wrong direction, the poll found that 63% said they would vote for Trump.

Conducted at the end of February, these results come as the Biden re-election campaign attempts to change the narrative on voter concerns about the Democrat candidate’s age and mental acuity and his handling of foreign policy and the economy. A majority of voters think the economy is in poor condition, the polling showed.

The survey is only the latest to reveal the depths of voter dissatisfaction with the president. Last week, a Bloomberg News poll found Biden trailing Trump in several critical states, including Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada and Wisconsin.

In the Bloomberg survey, a large share of the respondents voiced concerns with Biden’s age and a significant percentage said Trump was dangerous, and suggested the number of “double haters”, as pollsters call voters who approve of neither candidate, is significant.

 

Those findings were broadly repeated in Saturday’s Times poll. Biden’s approval rating came in at 38%, with Trump faring better with a 44% favorable rating.

Nineteen per cent of voters said they disapproved of both men, but among them Biden is slightly less hated, with a spread of 7% between Biden (38%) and Trump (45%). That spread, according to the Times, is significant: the candidate less disliked by “double haters” has won the last two presidential elections.

Those findings may bolster what Democrat and Republican pollsters drew from recent primary voting.

In South Carolina last week, the number of primary voters who backed Republican contender Nikki Haley but said they would never vote for Trump is perceived to represent the margin that will ensure Trump’s defeat to Biden in November.

But the New York Times poll provides an array of red warning lights for the Biden campaign, including signals that the Democratic party coalition of female, Black and Latino voters is fraying.

Among working-class, non-university-educated voters of color, Biden is only narrowly leading, 47% to Trump’s 41%, the poll found. Four years ago, Biden held a 50-point lead.

Last week, Trump suggested that his legal problems has won him support among Black voters.

“I got indicted for nothing, for something that is nothing,” he told the Black Conservative Federation gala in South Carolina. “A lot of people said that’s why the Black people like me, because they have been hurt so badly and discriminated against, and they actually viewed me as I’m being discriminated against.”

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1 hour ago, ArcticCrusher said:

It will go lower, much lower.

:goodpost:...No floor for Sleepy 🥱 💤.... fun to watch and should already be much lower

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1 hour ago, ArcticCrusher said:

Yes he is.  Both a rapist and a pedo.  100% fact.

You don't know the difference between facts and make believe.  You show that everyday.  

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2 hours ago, ArcticCrusher said:

Careful there you might get banned.

:lol:

he falls under the "protected class" and will get a pass:news:

  • Haha 1
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The Big Change Between the 2020 and 2024 Races: Biden Is Unpopular

Nate Cohn

Sat, March 2, 2024 at 10:39 AM CST·4 min read

1.9k

A debate watch party hosted by the Trump campaign Lititz, Pa., Sept. 29, 2020. (Mark Makela/The New York Times)

Let’s just say it: Joe Biden should be expected to win this election. He’s an incumbent president running for reelection with a reasonably healthy economy against an unpopular opponent accused of multiple federal crimes.

And yet Biden is not winning, at least not now. Polls show him trailing in states worth well over 270 electoral votes, and he lags behind Donald Trump in our newest New York Times/Siena College national poll by 5 percentage points among registered voters, 48% to 43%.

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That’s the largest lead Trump has ever had in a Times/Siena national poll. In fact, it’s the largest lead Trump has held in a Times/Siena or Times/CBS poll since first running for president in 2015.

Why is Biden losing? There are many possible reasons, including his age, the war in the Gaza Strip, the border and lingering concerns over inflation. But ultimately, they add up to something very simple: Biden is very unpopular. He’s so unpopular that he’s now even less popular than Trump, who remains every bit as unpopular as he was four years ago.

Biden’s unpopularity has flipped the expected dynamic of this election. It has turned what looked like a seemingly predictable rematch into a race with no resemblance to the 2020 election, when Biden was a broadly appealing candidate who was acceptable to the ideologically diverse group of voters who disapproved of Trump.

Instead, many voters will apparently agonize between two candidates they dislike. It’s exactly what Democrats sought to avoid when they nominated Biden in 2020. It’s what Democrats largely avoided in the 2018 and 2022 midterm elections, when they mostly nominated acceptable candidates or ran incumbents against right-wing opponents. And it’s exactly what led to the election of Trump in 2016.

Overall, 19% of registered voters in the Times/Siena survey have an unfavorable view of both candidates — a group sometimes referred to as “double haters.” These voters say they backed Biden by a 3-to-1 margin among those who voted in 2020, but now he holds the support of less than half. Every vote counts, but these voters will undoubtedly be pivotal in deciding the November election.

The double haters might ultimately return to Biden’s side. There are still eight months left until November, and it’s not as if these voters like Trump. If they do come back to Biden, perhaps their return will have seemed inevitable in retrospect.

But from today’s vantage point, we can’t know what will happen. What we know is that the choice for these voters is much more difficult for them than it was four years ago, when they said they liked Biden. They don’t today. It creates the conditions for a volatile race, and it might just be enough to flip their preference for president as well.

A few other items of note:

— In our last poll in December, Biden led by 2 points among likely voters, even though he trailed by 2 among the wider set of registered voters. But in this poll, Trump holds a 4-point lead among likely voters. That’s still better for Biden than his 5-point deficit among registered voters, and it continues a pattern of unusual Biden strength among the likeliest voters, but the difference is no longer enough to give Biden the lead.

Biden’s strength remains relatively concentrated among the most regular voters, as he holds a 46-45 lead among those who have voted in a midterm or a primary. He trails by only 2 points among those “almost certain to vote.” But many other voters will turn out in a general election, and at least in this particular poll, they’re enough to give Trump a modest lead.

— The poll found Trump leading Nikki Haley in the Republican primary, 77-20. That’s pretty good for Trump, of course, but it’s actually Haley’s best result in a month. And according to our poll, there’s a simple reason for her strength: Biden voters, who now make up 15% of those who say they will probably vote in the Republican primary. In fact, a near majority of Haley’s supporters (48-31) say they voted for Biden in the last election instead of Trump.

— Biden’s support among nonwhite voters keeps sinking. He held just a 49-39 lead among the group, even though nonwhite respondents who voted in the 2020 election said they backed Biden, 69-21.

— Despite the positive economic news over the last few months, 51% of voters still said the economy was “poor.” In a strange way, perhaps that’s good news for Biden: Maybe his standing will improve if or when voters begin to gain confidence that the economy has turned the corner.

— Even at this late stage, Democrats are still divided over whether Biden should be the nominee, with 46% saying he should be and 45% saying he shouldn’t. We didn’t ask whether Biden should drop out of the race. We considered it — in fact, we discussed it for days — but many respondents may not know the complications involved in a contested convention.

c.2024 The New York Times Company

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