Trump Enjoys Six Point Bump with Women Post-Convention

[Snake]

Republican nominee Donald Trump is seeing a post-convention bump with female voters — a demographic he was lagging with in comparison to the 2008 and 2012 GOP nominees.

A Morning Consult survey taken over the course of six weeks from June through July showed only about 36 percent of women supported Trump. However, a post-convention poll taken last weekend following the Republican National Convention (RNC) gave Trump a bump with females. Support from women jumped to 42 percent for the billionaire.

Prior to the RNC, independent women supported Hillary Clinton over Trump 33 percent to 31 percent. After the convention, independent women support Trump over Clinton 37 percent to 30 percent.

In 2008 and 2012, 43 percent of women supported the Republican nominee.

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/07/26/poll-trump-gets-six-point-bump-women-post-convention/

[racer254]

I can't believe the jump is only 6 points.  Most Women I know hate liars.  The DNC is full of them.

[SnowRider]

WASHINGTON (AP) — Donald Trump is talking about polls again.

The Republican presidential nominee had recently avoided the subject, given that many preference polls showed him in a close race with Hillary Clinton.

But on Monday, Trump cited polls following the Republican National Convention that show "the biggest bounce that anyone can remember."

Yet while all preference polls taken months before the November vote should come with a grain of salt, those published around the conventions are often especially volatile. They require a shaker.

And, by the way, those national polls don't reflect the way America chooses its president. The White House isn't decided by a popular vote, but in state-by-state votes that make up the Electoral College.

Here's a deeper look at post-convention polls:

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TRUMP'S BUMP

There have been two major polls conducted since the convention, a four-day gathering in Cleveland that ended with Trump's acceptance speech Thursday.

The first was conducted Friday through Sunday and found Trump and Clinton in a near-tie. That matched other surveys conducted ahead of the convention that showed the candidates in a tight race.

In his remarks Monday in Virginia, Trump was likely referring to another poll conducted over the same three-day period that showed him up a few points on Clinton, but still within the survey's margin of error.

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THE BIGGEST BOUNCE?

Polling bumps are often the result of intense media coverage of conventions, when voters hear directly from the candidates and their closest allies with very little competition.

Even when there are missteps, such as Melania Trump's issues with plagiarism last week, voters generally respond well to the weeklong speaking lineup that's designed to paint candidates in a positive light, disparage rivals and energize the party's most passionate voters.

Mitt Romney saw very little bump after his convention four years ago, but he was the exception. Since 1996, Republican presidential candidates saw polling increases of between 1.5 and 6.5 points on average, according to an analysis by Tom Holbrook, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee.

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A BOUNCE FOR CLINTON?

Al Gore's bump in 2000 was more than 7 points, but such a spike isn't guaranteed. President Barack Obama's numbers jumped less than 2 points after the last two conventions, according to Holbrook's analysis. Just like Romney four years ago, John Kerry's numbers were virtually flat after his 2004 convention.

An abundance of historical evidence, however, suggests that Clinton is likely to see a bump by this time next week that could negate Trump's appearance of momentum.

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HOW MUCH SHOULD YOU READ INTO POLLING RIGHT NOW?

Polls conducted during and just after conventions are particularly subject to change. There's no way of predicting whether a bounce will last after the post-convention glow wears off.

A large bump doesn't necessarily translate into victory, either. Gore ended up losing despite his 7-point bump in 2000. Obama's bump was smaller than John McCain's in 2008, yet Obama won.

Horse race polls are snapshots that can, and often do, change before Election Day. That's especially true this year, when both conventions are being held about a month earlier than usual.

It's also important to remember that presidential elections are not decided by a national popular vote. They are decided by the Electoral College system, essentially a series of simultaneous state-by-state votes.

That gives most of the influence to a handful of swing states, such as Ohio and Pennsylvania — which, not coincidentally, are the sites of the Republican and Democratic national conventions.

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What political news is the world searching for on Google and talking about on Twitter? Find out via AP's Election Buzz interactive. http://elections.ap.org/buzz

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Follow Steve Peoples and Emily Swanson on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/sppeoples and http://twitter.com/EL_Swan

[racer254]

You have become meaningless.  The DNC has manipulated people like you and you don't care.  Any opinion you may have has been given to you as evident by the events that have unfolded as of late.  Sorry.  Facts are facts, and now you have become just another waste of oxygen.

[SnowRider]

  From a Foreign Service Officer:    It really is this simple....  

Comparing the presidential qualifications of Hillary Clinton with Donald Trump is like comparing apples with orangutans. One candidate is well within the mainstream of American politics and has offered reasonable policies and solutions for what she wants to do as president, while the other candidate has offered either no specifics or horrific ones, along with a barrage of insults, fear-mongering, and bigotry. I could offer many examples of why Trump is beyond the pale as a presidential candidate, but the proposed ban against people of the Muslim faith entering the United States is arguably the most wretched. He proposes to ban over 1 billion people from entering (and remaining?) in the United States on the basis of their religion, and nothing else. 

I serve at the U.S. Embassy in Ankara, Turkey, a nation that is over 95 percent Muslim, a NATO treaty ally for over 50 years, and an indispensable force in fight against terrorism. Under a Trump presidency, the vast majority of Turkish citizens would be barred from entering the United States, along with citizens of other key allies around the globe. It is hard to imagine a better gift to extremists who attempt to hijack Islam to further their own perversions and hatred. 

We have seen in our country and around the world the lethal and tragic results of demonizing and discriminating against people on the basis of religion. All reasonable people should recoil at such a proposal. For an average citizen to advocate for such policies is bad enough, but for the presidential nominee of one of the major parties to do so, makes that person de facto unqualified to serve as president. NOTHING Hillary Clinton has said or done comes even remotely close to this, or the multitude of other statements that Trump has made against a host of individuals and groups. That is why I completely reject any attempt to equate the two candidates, and why anyone who cares about this country should do all they can over the next three months to keep Trump as far from the presidency as his words and ideas are from reality.

 

Well said but way over the heads of the forum simpletons  

[oleroule]

nice link, gruber.

Edited July 26, 2016 by oleroule

[Rod]

Trump is a very successful businessman 

[Capt.Storm]

1 hour ago, Sludgey said:

Trump is a very successful businessman 

With a really hot wife that will bring some class to the White House.

[Rod]

2 hours ago, Capt.Storm said:

With a really hot wife that will bring some class to the White House.

Absolutely.

 

but rump and wince are two women that'll never vote for trump