Poor, poor Democrat's

[XCR1250]

Without drastic changes, Dems are on track to lose big in 2022

BY DOUGLAS E. SCHOEN

 

 

 

 

© Getty

The marked decline in support for President Biden and his administration nationally and in key swing states indicates that the Democratic Party could endure a blowout defeat in the 2022 midterm elections. 

Moreover, President Biden is in a significantly weaker position now than both of his most recent Democratic predecessors — Bill Clinton and Barack Obama — at this point in their presidencies, which suggests that Democrats could suffer even more substantial losses in 2022 than the party did in 1994 and 2010. 

Indeed, voters nationally and in seven key swing-states disapprove, rather than approve, of the job President Biden is doing by a margin of 7-points or greater, according to a Civiqs survey released last week. 

Nationally, one-half (50 percent) of voters disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as president, while just 42 percent approve. 

For reference, at the same point in Barack Obama’s first term, Obama’s net approval rating was 19-points higher than Biden’s is right now. At the time, a majority of voters (52 percent) approved of Obama, while 41 percent disapproved, according to a Gallup survey released on Sept. 13, 2009.

That being said, in the 2010 midterm elections, Democrats lost a net of 64 House seats, and Republicans gained six seats in the Senate.

Likewise, on Sept. 12, 1993, Bill Clinton’s approval rating was recorded at 47 percent approve/42 percent disapprove by a Gallup survey. To put that in context, Clinton’s net approval rating was 13-points higher than Biden’s currently is at the same point in his presidency.

Yet, in the 1994 midterms, Democrats lost a net of 52 House seats, and Republicans picked up eight seats in the Senate.

To note, Democrats’ blowout midterm defeats in both 1994 and 2010 can be attributed in large part to their passage of massive spending and tax bills in the years prior. 

The Democrats’ 1994 defeat came after they pushed through Congress the then-largest tax increase in history without any Republican support. And in 2010, Democrats lost due in large part to voters’ perception of an ineffective economic stimulus, as well as governmental overreach on healthcare and the economy by the administration and congressional Democrats.

To note, a number of recent polls show that voters have grown increasingly negative on the Biden administration’s handling of major domestic issues, including the economy, COVID-19, immigration at the southern border and the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan.

And now, with congressional Democrats having approved a budget blueprint in their $3.5 trillion dollar spending bill — which will bring massive tax increases, and will likely increase the debt, deficit, and inflation — the electoral backlash against Democrats could be even more substantial than in both 1994 and 2010.

In addition to Joe Biden’s precipitous national decline, the president’s approval rating in key swing states, most of which he won in 2020, has dropped. This of course bodes poorly for Democrats’ 2022 prospects — and also makes it increasingly likely that Biden will be a one-term president—notwithstanding a dramatic turn of events in Democrats’ favor.

 

In five key swing states — Georgia, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania — voters disapprove, rather than approve, of the job Biden is doing by a 10-point margin or greater, according to the aforementioned Civiqs polls. To note, Biden won Georgia, Arizona, and Pennsylvania in 2020, and narrowly lost North Carolina and Florida.

And in Michigan and Wisconsin — two swing-states that were once reliably Democratic, both of which Biden won in 2020 — voters now disapprove of the president’s job performance by margins of 7- and 8-points respectively. 

It is noteworthy that, both nationally and in these key states, President Biden’s approval has been driven down in large part by Independent voters. Though Biden won national Independent voters handily in 2020, a majority (58 percent) now disapprove of the president, while just 31 percent approve.

This data is clearly troubling for Democrats — especially when taken together with the fact that the mere circumstances of the 2022 midterms are challenging for the party. Republicans need to pick up just five House seats, and redistricting alone could cost Democrats close to or even more than that amount. 

Further, since World War II, only twice has the president’s party gained seats in the midterm elections — in 1998 and 2002, when both presidents had approval ratings over 60 percent, and even so, only saw meager House seat gains. 

Simply put, the current 2022 outlook for Democrats is grim — and it could get even worse. 

If the Biden administration continues to push unnecessarily big government spending initiatives and tax increases, along with weak immigration policies and an incoherent foreign policy strategy, Democrats could suffer the most substantial midterm loss of any party in recent history. 

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. He is the co-author of a forthcoming book “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.

Edited September 12, 2021 by XCR1250

[01mxz800]

The downfall of the democrat party cannot come quick enough 

[Edmo]

2 hours ago, 01mxz800 said:

The downfall of the democrat party cannot come quick enough 

They deserve it after propping up this turd we have for president. Voters see this. It’s going to be ugly.

[DriftBusta]

8 minutes ago, Edmo said:

They deserve it after propping up this turd we have for president. Voters see this. It’s going to be ugly.

Agree.  And if the Republicans dont get their shit together, they’ll fuck it all up and squander the opportunity.

[Bontz]

I wouldn't count on anything, given the stupidity of this country and the questionable election integrities.  Pushing the 'Rona will certainly lead to more mail in voting, which we all know how that goes.  It only makes sense that the Republicans should gain seats with the current clusterfuck that's going on ... but I wouldn't bet on it.

[DriftBusta]

1 hour ago, Bontz said:

I wouldn't count on anything, given the stupidity of this country and the questionable election integrities.  Pushing the 'Rona will certainly lead to more mail in voting, which we all know how that goes.  It only makes sense that the Republicans should gain seats with the current clusterfuck that's going on ... but I wouldn't bet on it.

Thats the thing.  Half the country doesnt trust this government, the media or our election integrity.  The powers that be want to pretend none of that is relevant or worthy of trying to earn that trust.  Until that changes, we will remain divided.