Platinum Contributing Member Highmark Posted July 9, 2020 Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted July 9, 2020 This guy was saying Trump would win in 2016 very early on and most thought he was crazy. He is also a dem who voted for Clinton. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/professor-doubles-down-on-prediction-model-showing-trump-having-91-percent-chance-of-winning-election-despite-polls Despite recent polls that identify Joe Biden as the heavy favorite in 2020, a political science professor is still standing by his prediction model that shows President Trump having a "91 percent" chance of winning in November. Mediaite reported on Wednesday that Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth is doubling down on his "Primary Model,” which has correctly predicted five out of the past six elections since 1996 and every single election but two in the past 108 years. “The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth said. "This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced." As Mediaite noted, the two elections the model failed to predict were the 1960 election of John F. Kennedy and the 2000 election of George W. Bush. Norpoth's model examines the results of presidential primaries as the strongest indicator as to the outcome in the general election, not the polls that dominate the political discussion. According to Norpoth, Biden is in a much weaker position than Trump because of his poor showing in the first two primary races. Before making the stunning comeback in the South Carolina primary and carrying the following races, Biden came in fourth place in Iowa with just 15.8 percent of the vote and came in fifth place in New Hampshire with just 8.4 percent. Norpoth stressed that enthusiasm is key. “The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Norpoth told Mediaite. “The list is long and discouraging for early frontrunners. Beginning with Thomas Dewey in 1948, it spans such notables as Richard Nixon in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and John Kerry in 2004, to cite just the most spectacular cases." Norpoth's model, which correctly predicted Trump's victory roughly nine months before the 2016 election, suggests that the president will win by even a wider margin in the electoral college with 362 electoral votes versus the 304 he earned against Hillary Clinton. Mediaite pointed out such a victory would nearly match Barack Obama's 2008 election, when he earned 365 electoral votes. The Stony Brook professor appeared on "The Ingraham Angle" back in May making the same prediction. While the "Primary Model" hands Trump his reelection, national polls suggest Biden will win handily in November. The Real Clear Politics average shows the former VP besting the sitting president by 8.7 points. In the latest Fox News poll, Biden has a 12 point lead over Trump. The president's polling has taken quite the hit in recent months amid the coronavirus outbreak and increased racial tensions following the death of George Floyd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racer254 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Does this take into account the new "mail in ballot" format that is being pushed for this election? All bets are off with the way this COVID and fraud can be played. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SSFB Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 I wouldn't bet against it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Platinum Contributing Member Highmark Posted July 9, 2020 Author Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted July 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, SSFB said: I wouldn't bet against it. 25 out of 27 is a pretty good track record. Of the two he had wrong if people understood the fraud that went on in 1960 they would know what went wrong there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awful knawful Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Going to be some big butt hurt and "ass itch" in here! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Platinum Contributing Member ViperGTS/Z1 Posted July 10, 2020 Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted July 10, 2020 10 hours ago, racer254 said: Does this take into account the new "mail in ballot" format that is being pushed for this election? All bets are off with the way this COVID and fraud can be played. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DriftBusta Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 10 hours ago, awful knawful said: Going to be some big butt hurt and "ass itch" in here! I'm either gonna be 200 richer or 200 poorer. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SSFB Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 34 minutes ago, DriftBusta said: I'm either gonna be 200 richer or 200 poorer. Let it ride Woolard! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awful knawful Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 8 hours ago, DriftBusta said: I'm either gonna be 200 richer or 200 poorer. At least you're man enough to put your $ where your mouth is! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.