Permian running dry?

[BOHICA]

Looks to peak next year and then start a rapid decline in production….  Hopefully Texas has something else figured out once their oil is all pumped out in a decade or so.  US and the world is going to get even more dependent on those Arabs and Russians again.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Imminent-Peak-In-Permian-Oil-What-Does-it-Mean-For-Investors.html
 

In this article, I will update the general trends now being observed with daily production out of the Permian basin. In past articles, I’ve discussed the fact that it was clear that the quality of Permian acreage remaining to drill was on the decline. As this basin is the only major oil producer continuing to add barrels of daily output, this has broad implications for supply and prices. In the June 2023 edition of the EIA-914, the monthly forecast on oil and gas output, the Permian is shown with a slight decline for the July/August time period. This is the first time since Feb of 2021 this has occurred during the Snowmageddon of 2021.

[Highmark]

7 hours ago, BOHICA said:

Looks to peak next year and then start a rapid decline in production….  Hopefully Texas has something else figured out once their oil is all pumped out in a decade or so.  US and the world is going to get even more dependent on those Arabs and Russians again.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Imminent-Peak-In-Permian-Oil-What-Does-it-Mean-For-Investors.html
 

In this article, I will update the general trends now being observed with daily production out of the Permian basin. In past articles, I’ve discussed the fact that it was clear that the quality of Permian acreage remaining to drill was on the decline. As this basin is the only major oil producer continuing to add barrels of daily output, this has broad implications for supply and prices. In the June 2023 edition of the EIA-914, the monthly forecast on oil and gas output, the Permian is shown with a slight decline for the July/August time period. This is the first time since Feb of 2021 this has occurred during the Snowmageddon of 2021.

 Hardly.

The Permian Basin is one of the oldest and most well-known hydrocarbon-producing areas. Since the first well drilled in the basin in July of 1920, over 30 billion barrels of crude have been recovered, with experts predicting there are at least 20 billion barrels remaining.

https://www.enverus.com/permian-basin/#:~:text=The Permian Basin is one,least 20 billion barrels remaining.

[BOHICA]

so 10 years at current production to suck out those 20 billion barrels estimate left.  Longer then 10 if we decrease production from the Permian which will naturally occur as we run it dry.  We pump around 2 billion barrels a year out of the Permian currently….

 

 

 

Edited August 1, 2023 by BOHICA

[Highmark]

Just now, BOHICA said:

so 10 years at current production to suck out those 20 billion barrels estimate left.  Longer then 10 if we so production which will naturally occur as we run it dry.

 

 

 

Your under the assumption that those reserves won't replenish.   We have no idea how much oil there really is.   Even if the PB runs dry there are 100's of billions of barrels of oil in other locations available to us.  The idea that oil isn't just a fossil fuel is gaining traction and I think there is some validity to it.  

And yet, there is a way in which biogenic oil can "rapidly" recharge a depleted oil field. In the case of multiple communicating oil reservoirs at different depths, heat, and pressure, a deeper biogenic reservoir could re-fill a more superficial reservoir at variable rates, depending upon a number of factors.

[BOHICA]

1 minute ago, Highmark said:

Your under the assumption that those reserves won't replenish.   We have no idea how much oil there really is.   Even if the PB runs dry there are 100's of billions of barrels of oil in other locations available to us.  The idea that oil isn't just a fossil fuel is gaining traction and I think there is some validity to it.  

And yet, there is a way in which biogenic oil can "rapidly" recharge a depleted oil field. In the case of multiple communicating oil reservoirs at different depths, heat, and pressure, a deeper biogenic reservoir could re-fill a more superficial reservoir at variable rates, depending upon a number of factors.

So your link with 20 billion barrel of recoverable oil left is just made up then?  My link and thread is about the Permian drying up, which it is, and it’s the only oil fields in the US that have increased production the last few years.  As the Permian naturally reduces output, there is not a lot of places in the US coming online to fill that void.  We are pretty much at the whim of Russia and Arabs for our oil requirements.

[Snake]

PEAK OIL!

PEAK OIL!

[Snake]

Wind farm companies folding because they can't deliver electricity for price necessary, but....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PEAK OIL!!!!!

[Highmark]

24 minutes ago, BOHICA said:

So your link with 20 billion barrel of recoverable oil left is just made up then?  My link and thread is about the Permian drying up, which it is, and it’s the only oil fields in the US that have increased production the last few years.  As the Permian naturally reduces output, there is not a lot of places in the US coming online to fill that void.  We are pretty much at the whim of Russia and Arabs for our oil requirements.

No I believe that's what they think is left or want us to believe.  What happens to oil prices if the truth was really known? 

Actually you are wrong on both counts.   We have trillions of barrels.   Trading partners like Canada and Mexico also have vast reserves.  Do you have any idea how long 2 trillion barrels of oil will last?    

Oil shale. The United States has the largest known deposits of oil shale in the world, according to the Bureau of Land Management and holds an estimated 2.175 trillion barrels

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_the_United_States#:~:text=Oil shale,-Main article%3A Oil&text=The United States has the,oil precursor known as kerogen.

https://www.nytimes.com/1995/09/26/science/geochemist-says-oil-fieldsmay-be-refilled-naturally.html

Edited August 1, 2023 by Highmark

[BOHICA]

1 minute ago, Highmark said:

No I believe that's what they think is left or want us to believe.  

Actually you are wrong on both counts.   We have trillions of barrels.   Trading partners like Canada and Mexico also have vast reserves.  Do you have any idea how long 2 trillion barrels of oil will last?    

Oil shale. The United States has the largest known deposits of oil shale in the world, according to the Bureau of Land Management and holds an estimated 2.175 trillion barrels

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_the_United_States#:~:text=Oil shale,-Main article%3A Oil&text=The United States has the,oil precursor known as kerogen.

You are the one that posted the link that says there is 20 billion barrels left in the Permian…..  that is 10 years of production at current rates of useage.  Experts are saying the basin has peaked or will next year and start declining.  
 

you bolded it even.  😂 your link wrong?

[Highmark]

14 minutes ago, BOHICA said:

You are the one that posted the link that says there is 20 billion barrels left in the Permian…..  that is 10 years of production at current rates of useage.  Experts are saying the basin has peaked or will next year and start declining.  
 

you bolded it even.  😂 your link wrong?

It was simply stating its only about half way thru and we've been pounding it for 100 years.   Our methods of recovery are much better as well. 

The idea that oil is a scarce resource is a fanciful idea which was the whole point of your post.  

This was only 5 years ago.   Plenty to yet be discovered in this area alone.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2018/12/21/americas-oil-and-gas-reserves-double-with-massive-new-permian-discovery/?sh=2975fb332c91

 

Edited August 1, 2023 by Highmark

[akvanden]

Never underestimate human ingenuity. That’s what got us out of the last “peak oil” claims in the mid 2000s. 

[hayward]

Human ingenuity

with government $$$$$$$$