My theory on North Korea

[f7ben]

I guess I havent really read anyone talking about this but to me it seems pretty obvious.

During the campaign Trump employed some pretty tough talk on China regarding trade and their manipulation of currency etc. He promised action and the people responded to it. When he was elected China was faced with needing to define a strategy to mitigate Trump and the nationalist wave that was gaining momentum.

China decides to have North Korea ramp up their missile testing and Rhetoric knowing full well Trump will respond. China also knows that the USA still has very little patience for another prolonged war on yet another continent. In the end the only possible way for Trump to avoid war and reign in NK is to ask China to deal with them.

China says to Trump in negotiating the NK situation. Please stand down from your rhetoric concerning trade with us and our manipulation of currency etc etc and we will work to pull NK back from the brink. This puts Trump between a rock and a hard place.

Its really pretty simple and I would bet everything this is close to how China is playing it and the reason for the massive instant escalation of the NK situation as soon as Trump took over.

[motonoggin]

Probably spot on with that. 

 

[f7ben]

1 minute ago, motonoggin said:

Probably spot on with that. 

 

Foreign policy is really 3 level chess and Trump just blurting shit out and tweeting whatever is on his mind undermines his ability to strategically deal with other nations and it really hamstrings his Sec of State and those tasked with implementing policy

[xtralettucetomatoe580]

22 minutes ago, f7ben said:

I guess I havent really read anyone talking about this but to me it seems pretty obvious.

During the campaign Trump employed some pretty tough talk on China regarding trade and their manipulation of currency etc. He promised action and the people responded to it. When he was elected China was faced with needing to define a strategy to mitigate Trump and the nationalist wave that was gaining momentum.

China decides to have North Korea ramp up their missile testing and Rhetoric knowing full well Trump will respond. China also knows that the USA still has very little patience for another prolonged war on yet another continent. In the end the only possible way for Trump to avoid war and reign in NK is to ask China to deal with them.

China says to Trump in negotiating the NK situation. Please stand down from your rhetoric concerning trade with us and our manipulation of currency etc etc and we will work to pull NK back from the brink. This puts Trump between a rock and a hard place.

Its really pretty simple and I would bet everything this is close to how China is playing it and the reason for the massive instant escalation of the NK situation as soon as Trump took over.

Makes sense. The only question is the amount of absolute control held by China over NK. That assumes there is full control. I don’t doubt that, but it has to be. 

[f7ben]

1 minute ago, xtralettucetomatoe580 said:

Makes sense. The only question is the amount of absolute control held by China over NK. That assumes there is full control. I don’t doubt that, but it has to be. 

There is absolutely 100% full control. If China wants it could turn the lights out and shut the country down fully tomorrow and within a day there would be a million refugees on its border. China calls the shots fully with the NK regime 

[Highmark]

23 minutes ago, f7ben said:

I guess I havent really read anyone talking about this but to me it seems pretty obvious.

During the campaign Trump employed some pretty tough talk on China regarding trade and their manipulation of currency etc. He promised action and the people responded to it. When he was elected China was faced with needing to define a strategy to mitigate Trump and the nationalist wave that was gaining momentum.

China decides to have North Korea ramp up their missile testing and Rhetoric knowing full well Trump will respond. China also knows that the USA still has very little patience for another prolonged war on yet another continent. In the end the only possible way for Trump to avoid war and reign in NK is to ask China to deal with them.

China says to Trump in negotiating the NK situation. Please stand down from your rhetoric concerning trade with us and our manipulation of currency etc etc and we will work to pull NK back from the brink. This puts Trump between a rock and a hard place.

Its really pretty simple and I would bet everything this is close to how China is playing it and the reason for the massive instant escalation of the NK situation as soon as Trump took over.

You don't come up with Nuke's and ballistic missiles over night.   I agree with some of this assessment but I'd hardly call it massive and instant escalation.  

[xtralettucetomatoe580]

Just now, f7ben said:

There is absolutely 100% full control. If China wants it could turn the lights out and shut the country down fully tomorrow and within a day there would be a million refugees on its border. China calls the shots fully with the NK regime 

If that’s the case, Obama’s strategy of ignoring them is the go to. NK wouldn’t do shit because that is by extension China doing shit. Trump is being suckered in that situation. 

[f7ben]

Just now, Highmark said:

You don't come up with Nuke's and ballistic missiles over night.   I agree with some of this assessment but I'd hardly call it massive and instant escalation.  

Oh the program has been there but they have been treading quietly with less frequent missile tests etc etc. China used them perfectly and I feel that is why we havent heard a peep from trump on trade or currency manipulating 

[Highmark]

Just now, f7ben said:

Oh the program has been there but they have been treading quietly with less frequent missile tests etc etc. China used them perfectly and I feel that is why we havent heard a peep from trump on trade or currency manipulating 

Not really.

2016

• Feb. 7, 2016: North Korea fires a long-range rocket from the Dongchang-ri launch site. The rocket was fired from North Korea's west coast and tracked separately by the governments Japan and South Korea. South Korean media reported that the rocket may have failed, but provided no other details. 
• March 10th, 2016: North Korea fires two Scud missiles. They flew for roughly 300 miles before crashing into the sea, according to the BBC. 

• March 18th, 2016: North Korea launches what appeared to be two mid-range Nodong ballistic missiles from its western province. South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement that the missiles flew 500 miles before crashing off the North's east coast on Friday.
• April 15th, 2016: North Korea conducts its first test-launch of an intermediate-range Musudan ballistic missile, also known as the BM-25, but the launch ended in failure.
• April 23rd, 2016: North Korea test-fires an SLBM in the East Sea, which flew only about 30 kilometers from a submarine off its northeast coast
• April 28th, 2016: North Korea launches two intermediate-range Musudan ballistic missiles, but the launches ended in failure.
• May 31st, 2016: North Korea test-fires an intermediate-range Musudanballistic missile, but the launch ends in failure.
• June 22nd, 2016: North Korea fires off two intermediate-range Musudan ballistic missiles which managed to launch about 620 miles high after several failed attempts in recent months.
• July 9th, 2016: North Korea launches an SLBM off its east coast, but Seoul said the missile appeared to explode at an altitude of some 10 kilometers.
• July 18th, 2016: North Korea fires two Scuds and one medium-range Nodong missile. 
• August 2nd, 2016: North Korea fires-off two mid-range Nodong ballistic missiles from near the southwestern area. One missile flew about 1,000 kilometers before falling into Japan's exclusive economic zone. 
• August 24th, 2016: North Korea fires a Polaris-1 missile from a submarine, which experts say is a significant leap forward in terms of capability for the country. 
• September 5th, 2016: North Korea fires off three modified Scud missiles, or Scud ERs, on the final day of the G-20 meeting of rich countries. 
• October 14th, 2016: North Korea fires off an intermediate-range Musudan ballistic missile, but it exploded after the launch. 
• October 19th, 2016: North Korea launches another Musudan missile, which also fails. 

2015

• February 8th, 2015: North Korea launches five short-range missiles from the coastal town of Wosan. The flew roughly 125 miles before crashing into the sea. 
• March 1st, 2015: North Korea launches two Scud missiles into its eastern sea in protest of U.S. military drills with South Korea. 
• April 2-3, 2015: North Korea launches five short-range missiles off its west coast. Analysts say the rockets have a distance of about 87 miles. 
• May 8th, 2015: North Korea successfully fires a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), the Polaris-1, from the Sinpo Shipyard. 
• November 28th, 2015: North Korea attempts to launch another Polaris-1. However, this launch was unsuccessful. 
• December 21st, 2015: North Korea claims that it successfully launched another Polaris-1 SLBM. 

2014

North Korea had no known missile failures in 2014, according to NTI. However, all of the launches observed involved short-range SCUD or KN-02 missiles or medium-range Nodongs. The North did not test a multi-stage long-range missile this year. 

• February 27th, 2014: North Korea fires four short-range Scud missiles from its Kittaeryong Missile Base to protest U.S./South Korean military exercises. 
• March 3rd, 2014: North Korea fires two short-range Scud missiles from Wonsan Kalma International Airport. 
• March 26th, 2014: Amid an international meeting in the Netherlands to discuss North Korea's nuclear threat, the country launched two medium-range Nodong missiles into the sea between itself and Japan. The missiles were fired from Sunchon airbase and travelled some 403 miles before crashing. 
• June 26-29, 2014: North Korea fires three short-range ballistic missiles into the sea. 
• July 9th, 2014: North Korea fires two short-range Scud missiles from Hwangju. 
• July 13th, 2014: North Korea fires to short-range Scud missiles from Kaesong. 
• July 26th, 2014: North Korea fires another Scud. 
• August 14th, 2014: North Korea fires a short-range KN-02 missile from North Wonsan while Pope Francis visits South Korea. 
• September 1st, 2014: North Korea fires another KN-02 missile from North Wonsan. 
• September 1st, 2014: North Korea fires another KN-02 missile from North Wonsan. 

2013

• May 18-20, 2013: After a period of relative silence, North Korea fires six KN-02 short-range missiles from North Wonsan. 

2012

• April 12th, 2012: An Unha-3 missile is fired from the Sohae Satellite Launching Station in North Pyongyan Province. This was Kim Jong Un's first missile test, and it failed, flying about 120 km into the air before it exploded, according to NTI, which also said that although this missile failed, it was seen as embarrassing to President Obama, who had attempted to restart talks for another missile testing moratorium.
• December 12th, 2012: Another Unha-3 missile is fired from the Sohae Satellite Launching Station.

2009

• July 5th, 2009: Three years after the 2006 tests, North Korea tested eight missiles. The multi-state Unha failed, exploding in its second or third stage over the Pacific. Two Nodong and five Scud-C missiles were successully launched, NTI notes. 

2006

• July 5th, 2006: On Independence Day in the U.S., North Korea tested seven missiles, one similar to the 1998 test that started the moratorium. This one failed 42 seconds into its flight, NTI notes. The other six were successful launches, but there is some dispute over what kind of missiles these were. Some have been counted in NTI's database as Nodong missiles, and others were counted as Scud-C missiles.

[f7ben]

Just now, xtralettucetomatoe580 said:

If that’s the case, Obama’s strategy of ignoring them is the go to. NK wouldn’t do shit because that is by extension China doing shit. Trump is being suckered in that situation. 

Absolutely. China doesnt want a war to happen in NK because it would be the largest humanitarian crisis in history happening right on their border....the amount of refugees fleeing into their country would be extraordinary....but by the same token they can use the leverage of fully controlling the NK economy to whatever ends they desire in the international community.

Trump got played hard and I agree that ignoring them is the only way. China would never let NK do anything with its military except rabble rouse from time to time 

[f7ben]

1 minute ago, Highmark said:

Not really.

2016

• Feb. 7, 2016: North Korea fires a long-range rocket from the Dongchang-ri launch site. The rocket was fired from North Korea's west coast and tracked separately by the governments Japan and South Korea. South Korean media reported that the rocket may have failed, but provided no other details. 
• March 10th, 2016: North Korea fires two Scud missiles. They flew for roughly 300 miles before crashing into the sea, according to the BBC. 

• March 18th, 2016: North Korea launches what appeared to be two mid-range Nodong ballistic missiles from its western province. South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement that the missiles flew 500 miles before crashing off the North's east coast on Friday.
• April 15th, 2016: North Korea conducts its first test-launch of an intermediate-range Musudan ballistic missile, also known as the BM-25, but the launch ended in failure.
• April 23rd, 2016: North Korea test-fires an SLBM in the East Sea, which flew only about 30 kilometers from a submarine off its northeast coast
• April 28th, 2016: North Korea launches two intermediate-range Musudan ballistic missiles, but the launches ended in failure.
• May 31st, 2016: North Korea test-fires an intermediate-range Musudanballistic missile, but the launch ends in failure.
• June 22nd, 2016: North Korea fires off two intermediate-range Musudan ballistic missiles which managed to launch about 620 miles high after several failed attempts in recent months.
• July 9th, 2016: North Korea launches an SLBM off its east coast, but Seoul said the missile appeared to explode at an altitude of some 10 kilometers.
• July 18th, 2016: North Korea fires two Scuds and one medium-range Nodong missile. 
• August 2nd, 2016: North Korea fires-off two mid-range Nodong ballistic missiles from near the southwestern area. One missile flew about 1,000 kilometers before falling into Japan's exclusive economic zone. 
• August 24th, 2016: North Korea fires a Polaris-1 missile from a submarine, which experts say is a significant leap forward in terms of capability for the country. 
• September 5th, 2016: North Korea fires off three modified Scud missiles, or Scud ERs, on the final day of the G-20 meeting of rich countries. 
• October 14th, 2016: North Korea fires off an intermediate-range Musudan ballistic missile, but it exploded after the launch. 
• October 19th, 2016: North Korea launches another Musudan missile, which also fails. 

2015

• February 8th, 2015: North Korea launches five short-range missiles from the coastal town of Wosan. The flew roughly 125 miles before crashing into the sea. 
• March 1st, 2015: North Korea launches two Scud missiles into its eastern sea in protest of U.S. military drills with South Korea. 
• April 2-3, 2015: North Korea launches five short-range missiles off its west coast. Analysts say the rockets have a distance of about 87 miles. 
• May 8th, 2015: North Korea successfully fires a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), the Polaris-1, from the Sinpo Shipyard. 
• November 28th, 2015: North Korea attempts to launch another Polaris-1. However, this launch was unsuccessful. 
• December 21st, 2015: North Korea claims that it successfully launched another Polaris-1 SLBM. 

2014

North Korea had no known missile failures in 2014, according to NTI. However, all of the launches observed involved short-range SCUD or KN-02 missiles or medium-range Nodongs. The North did not test a multi-stage long-range missile this year. 

• February 27th, 2014: North Korea fires four short-range Scud missiles from its Kittaeryong Missile Base to protest U.S./South Korean military exercises. 
• March 3rd, 2014: North Korea fires two short-range Scud missiles from Wonsan Kalma International Airport. 
• March 26th, 2014: Amid an international meeting in the Netherlands to discuss North Korea's nuclear threat, the country launched two medium-range Nodong missiles into the sea between itself and Japan. The missiles were fired from Sunchon airbase and travelled some 403 miles before crashing. 
• June 26-29, 2014: North Korea fires three short-range ballistic missiles into the sea. 
• July 9th, 2014: North Korea fires two short-range Scud missiles from Hwangju. 
• July 13th, 2014: North Korea fires to short-range Scud missiles from Kaesong. 
• July 26th, 2014: North Korea fires another Scud. 
• August 14th, 2014: North Korea fires a short-range KN-02 missile from North Wonsan while Pope Francis visits South Korea. 
• September 1st, 2014: North Korea fires another KN-02 missile from North Wonsan. 
• September 1st, 2014: North Korea fires another KN-02 missile from North Wonsan. 

2013

• May 18-20, 2013: After a period of relative silence, North Korea fires six KN-02 short-range missiles from North Wonsan. 

2012

• April 12th, 2012: An Unha-3 missile is fired from the Sohae Satellite Launching Station in North Pyongyan Province. This was Kim Jong Un's first missile test, and it failed, flying about 120 km into the air before it exploded, according to NTI, which also said that although this missile failed, it was seen as embarrassing to President Obama, who had attempted to restart talks for another missile testing moratorium.
• December 12th, 2012: Another Unha-3 missile is fired from the Sohae Satellite Launching Station.

2009

• July 5th, 2009: Three years after the 2006 tests, North Korea tested eight missiles. The multi-state Unha failed, exploding in its second or third stage over the Pacific. Two Nodong and five Scud-C missiles were successully launched, NTI notes. 

2006

• July 5th, 2006: On Independence Day in the U.S., North Korea tested seven missiles, one similar to the 1998 test that started the moratorium. This one failed 42 seconds into its flight, NTI notes. The other six were successful launches, but there is some dispute over what kind of missiles these were. Some have been counted in NTI's database as Nodong missiles, and others were counted as Scud-C missiles.

Dude....they fired a missile directly over mainland Japan and have been escalating the rhetoric fully

[xtralettucetomatoe580]

Not sure why we care. Let them have their toys. Fuck it. Not going to hurt us or our allies. Power wants to stay in power. Dropping a nuke on SK or Japan means the death of them. 

[Highmark]

Just now, f7ben said:

Dude....they fired a missile directly over mainland Japan and have been escalating the rhetoric fully

I'm not saying it hasn't ramped up a bit.   I just disagree with the phrase "massive and instant."  

[Highmark]

Just now, xtralettucetomatoe580 said:

Not sure why we care. Let them have their toys. Fuck it. Not going to hurt us or our allies. Power wants to stay in power. Dropping a nuke on SK or Japan means the death of them. 

Agreed.  

The only threat comes from the sale of them to someone who would use them proactively against us.   Still this threat isn't worth going to war with them.  

[f7ben]

Just now, Highmark said:

I'm not saying it hasn't ramped up a bit.   I just disagree with the phrase "massive and instant."  

I was more referring to the rhetoric at that point with that phrase. Obama largely ignored them and that is the only way to proceed. China will not let us destroy them nor will china let them act with their military. Its a losers game to engage them in anyway at all 

[Highmark]

Just now, f7ben said:

I was more referring to the rhetoric at that point with that phrase. Obama largely ignored them and that is the only way to proceed. China will not let us destroy them nor will china let them act with their military. Its a losers game to engage them in anyway at all 

Agreed.   I've been saying ignore them for a long time now.  

[xtralettucetomatoe580]

Just now, Highmark said:

Agreed.  

The only threat comes from the sale of them to someone who would use them proactively against us.   Still this threat isn't worth going to war with them.  

Even with that, if China exerts the control that we are proposing, they wouldn’t let that happen. Same end result different path. Plus I have confidence that this is one place where our intel community doesn’t suck. They would most likely catch that. (Being optimistic) 

[f7ben]

Just now, Highmark said:

Agreed.   I've been saying ignore them for a long time now.  

Firing that missile over Japan was a serious escalation though. Japan freaked the fuck out over that and that drags us right into the fold again and again 

[f7ben]

1 minute ago, xtralettucetomatoe580 said:

Even with that, if China exerts the control that we are proposing, they wouldn’t let that happen. Same end result different path. Plus I have confidence that this is one place where our intel community doesn’t suck. They would most likely catch that. (Being optimistic) 

They are too busy trying to crack encryption on some mental ill mass shooters phone to deal with things like actual spy work that might benefit us and not destroy our 4th amendment 

Edited November 8, 2017 by f7ben

[xtralettucetomatoe580]

Just now, f7ben said:

They are too busy trying to crack encryption on some mental ill mass shooter to deal with things like actual spy work that might benefit us and not destroy our 4th amendment 

Lol. True. I think there are still patriots in there that aren’t dealing with the stripping of our rights and trying to kill off whistle blowers.. Could be wrong. I’ve met some dudes who feel the same way we do about our rights and are disgusted by it who serve in the dark portions of our national security.

[f7ben]

1 minute ago, xtralettucetomatoe580 said:

Lol. True. I think there are still patriots in there that aren’t dealing with the stripping of our rights and trying to kill off whistle blowers.. Could be wrong. I’ve met some dudes who feel the same way we do about our rights and are disgusted by it who serve in the dark portions of our national security.

God I hope they are there.....its got to be a tough spot to be in 

[xtralettucetomatoe580]

Just now, f7ben said:

God I hope they are there.....its got to be a tough spot to be in 

It’s easy to look at DC and see a group of mouth pieces who doesn’t give a fuck about the Constitution, but they aren’t the average. I am certain there are plenty who understand the juggle of rights over security. With rights always taking precedent. 

[Anler]

41 minutes ago, f7ben said:

I guess I havent really read anyone talking about this but to me it seems pretty obvious.

During the campaign Trump employed some pretty tough talk on China regarding trade and their manipulation of currency etc. He promised action and the people responded to it. When he was elected China was faced with needing to define a strategy to mitigate Trump and the nationalist wave that was gaining momentum.

China decides to have North Korea ramp up their missile testing and Rhetoric knowing full well Trump will respond. China also knows that the USA still has very little patience for another prolonged war on yet another continent. In the end the only possible way for Trump to avoid war and reign in NK is to ask China to deal with them.

China says to Trump in negotiating the NK situation. Please stand down from your rhetoric concerning trade with us and our manipulation of currency etc etc and we will work to pull NK back from the brink. This puts Trump between a rock and a hard place.

Its really pretty simple and I would bet everything this is close to how China is playing it and the reason for the massive instant escalation of the NK situation as soon as Trump took over.

Well that theory doesnt jive with the MSM stories... Kim Dong Chong is a crazy dictator who wants our destruction and he has A nuke that can reach Chicago and he has his finger on the button!!!!! Trump is God's designated protector of the US and he is only doing God's work if HE decides to crush North Korea... 

[Anler]

2 minutes ago, xtralettucetomatoe580 said:

It’s easy to look at DC and see a group of mouth pieces who doesn’t give a fuck about the Constitution, but they aren’t the average. I am certain there are plenty who understand the juggle of rights over security. With rights always taking precedent. 

Dude they wipe their asses with the constitution every day and nobody does shit to stop them. Just vote for the RIGHT republican or the RIGHT democrat and everything will get fixed one of these days... Thats what we gotta do.... 

[ActionfigureJoe]

The Chinese view NK giving up nuclear weapons as an end goal of negotiations. America politicians have up to this point viewed it as a beginning point of negotiations. China has set out a few starting points. The biggest being NK’s largest sticking point, joint military exercises with SK and American forces. They want it to end.