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Convoluted bubble and a jobs report


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So today's jobs report is being watched intently.

If the jobs report is better than expected the market will tank fearing that the fed may back off the rate cut talk.

If it's a bad number indicating the economy really slowing the market will rise because it will be viewed as a guarantee for fed stimulus

When the market pricing is predicated on the hope for fed stimulus and not valuation there is a real problem.

Edited by f7ben
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36 minutes ago, f7ben said:

So today's jobs report is being watched intently.

If the jobs report is better than expected the market will tank fearing that the fed may back off the rate cut talk.

If it's a bad number indicating the economy really slowing the market will rise because it will be viewed as a guarantee for fed stimulus

When the market pricing is predicated on the hope for fed stimulus and not valuation there is a real problem.

Corporate welfare at work. 

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I don't know if valuation is that far off though.  Looking at P/E we are actually at lower P/E than we were 1 year ago not only for the Dow but for the broader markets.  Dividend Yield is also up over a year ago.  That tells me was are actually more valuation minded right now.   I do think a rate cut is foolish though, even if the jobs numbers are even mediocre.

 

http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html

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2 minutes ago, F3600 said:

I don't know if valuation is that far off though.  Looking at P/E we are actually at lower P/E than we were 1 year ago not only for the Dow but for the broader markets.  Dividend Yield is also up over a year ago.  That tells me was are actually more valuation minded right now.   I do think a rate cut is foolish though, even if the jobs numbers are even mediocre.

 

http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html

A year ago the economy was expanding at a great pace. Now that pace has screeched to a halt and forward looking valuation has changed very little.

We are just a few points off all time highs with a recession starting us directly in the face. 

The fed will start firing bullets at the giant elephant in the room and all it will do if blow the bubble up a little bigger

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