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Seatofmypants

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Posts posted by Seatofmypants

    Just now, NaturallyAspirated said:

    Sure be hard to tell that round here.  Hell we couldn't even keep the Starbucks open all day due to lack of workers.  If you got a pulse you can get a job here.

    Neal

    Strictly from a spending standpoint its in trouble.  State spending on infrastructure as an example is almost switched off.  I realize that is only one "for instance."  Commercial development isn't happening, residential work is half of what it was.  All the major indicators that we pay attention have everyone highly spooked. The only thing holding the economy up is we are in an election year and Powell was compelled to start dropping rates.  Just one man's opinion, but we in trouble.

    • Like 1

    1 minute ago, akvanden said:

    Better than had they not. But then again oil only makes up a fraction of overall CPI.

    Thought you originally alluded to the release from the SPR for election purposes? Are they now buying oil to refill it for election purposes too?

    Maybe they are starting to add to it (if you want to call it that) because there is a glut....you know, because of a drop in demand....just a thought.  Next year is gonna be a rough ride (as far as the economy is concerned), election or not.

    Just now, akvanden said:

    In 2021, when demand increased more quickly supply could handle when the country was coming out of Covid. It was an attempt to stabilize oil prices and help keep inflation down. 

    How did that work?

    16 minutes ago, Crnr2Crnr said:

    are you claiming BIG OIL is producing all this oil to help Biden? 

    :dunno: confusing...

    That is a PDF of the SPR....and how much is has been drained....any guesses as to when that started?

    ·

    Edited by Seatofmypants

    If you think consumer spending hasn't slowed you're not paying attention.  Problem is raw materials never really contract, once they get juiced up they stay that way.  Labor rates aren't going to drop, energy prices are going to stay where they are.  The only reason unemployment rates are so low, is because we lost a large portion of employees that didn't come back to work after covid.  That is fact.  So this whole dynamic is really new because of the piss poor way this whole thing was handled.  Fact is the fed should have been raising rates about 12-18 months before they did and we would have had a softer landing, but that didn't happen (due to political pressure most likely).  Its going to be interesting as we near the election as I suspect everyone in office will do everything they can to prop up the market.  I expect a bumpy ride.

     

    Spending from goverment funded projects (bridges roads etc) has slowed drastically here in the northeast as has individual level spending.  :bc: 

    • Like 3

    13 minutes ago, f7ben said:

    I have no idea what the fuck the fed was doing but it seems they were doing it on purpose for reasons we will never know. They were cutting rates in a healthy expanding economy and injecting liquidity in massive doses through the discount window. It just seems like massive inflation was their plan and Donald loved the sugar high. 

    Doing what they always do.  Fucking it up.

    16 minutes ago, Mainecat said:

    Yeah let’s throw 2 trillion in tax cuts to Corporate America and watch them buy back their stocks and give their CEO’s millions in bonuses..

    Hows that working out?

    That worked out well. 

    change yo bait.....

    1 hour ago, f7ben said:

    Except they haven’t spent nearly like Trump , the FED has u wound the balance sheet on their watch and raised rates instead of cutting. Trump was a full blown fucking disaster. There’s no denying the inflation is his to own. 

    He got the ball rolling no doubt.  The lack of a reaction by the fed (about 12 months late on rate increases because of supposed transitory inflation) is what has us real fucked.  All they had to do was realize that this inflation was real...and we needed to bump rates....but nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo lets keep money dirt cheap.

    :bc:

     

    36 minutes ago, Highmark said:

    That is simply an untrue claim.   Trump is having to primary against a decent group of candidates and he is boot stomping them.  They have the perfect way to get rid of Trump and they simply don't have the backing to do it.   Trump still has huge support in the GOP.  He has gained support inside the party with every indictment.   I'm not talking about the powers to be in the party but the ave GOP voter.    

    Meh.....I'm not voting for either of these 80 year old's.  Its idiotic to think this is the best we have.  Trust me there are plenty of republicans that do not want to see Trump on the ticket.

    Just now, SnowRider said:

    Polls and Repug support suggest otherwise.  There is no Repug party so long as MAGA is relevant.  Joe is spot on.  Anything else is either wishful thinking or pro-MAGA

    Think what you will. 

    The sooner dems realize that most republicans want trump to go away the better off they will be.   That being said, who wants liz cheney or romney? 

     

    We need a middle of the road dem or repub to pull us out of this cycle....really hope it happens in 2024. 

    • Like 3
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