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  1. Posted

    Biden claims he's 'getting calls' from European leaders wanting him to 'get engaged'

    Fox News

    Lindsay Kornick

    3.5k

    Former President Joe Biden claimed during a rare public appearance on Wednesday that he keeps getting calls from officeholders and European leaders asking for advice during the Trump era.

    Biden gave a keynote speech at the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) convention in San Diego and later sat down with SHRM president and CEO Johnny Taylor in a video published by Democratic operative Chris Jackson on X.

    The two talked about how he has been spending his time since leaving office. After touting his accomplishments, the former president said he still stays engaged with world efforts and is constantly told by international leaders to get more involved.

    Biden Scolds Reporters Saying He 'Knows More World Leaders' Than They Do In Their Whole 'Goddamn' Lives

    former President Biden speaking at the SHRM convention in July

    Former U.S. President Joe Biden participated in a Q&A with Johnny C. Taylor Jr., President and CEO of SHRM at the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) Annual Conference and Expo at the San Diego Convention Center on Wednesday, July 2, 2025, in San Diego, CA.More

    "I’m getting calls. I’m not going to go into it, I can’t, from a number of European leaders asking me to get engaged," Biden said. "I’m not, but I’m giving advice. Because things are different."

    "How can you just walk away?" Biden added. "You don’t see me out there publicly doing a lot of this. But I’m also dealing with a lot of Democrats and Republican colleagues, all of them, wanting to talk, not because they think I have the answer, just to bounce things off me. I’m seeing a lot of officeholders… I’m not looking for them. They asked to see me, I see them."

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    Biden also revealed that he was working on a memoir since "every president is expected to write a memoir." He described himself as "working like hell" to write a 500-page book that his publisher wants out by "March of this year."

    Biden's Media Blitz Met With Democratic Disdain, Wishes He Would 'Go Away'

    Biden giving a smirk to an unseen crowd

    Biden revealed he was working on a memoir of his time in office.

    Since leaving office, Biden has largely stayed out of the public spotlight. Biden didn’t give his first public speech as a former president until April, almost three months after leaving the White House.

    His brief return to the limelight in May was met with backlash by his fellow Democrats.

    Original article source: Biden claims he's 'getting calls' from European leaders wanting him to 'get engaged'

  2. 58 minutes ago, Crnr2Crnr said:

    Pete's Mad Syndrome is a serious condition, you should probably see a gynocologist or a trained psychologist as soon as possible

    I won't lose shit dummy... news

    Everytime I take a crap I lose some.


  3. 24/7 Help

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    Social Security Administration praises Trump’s agenda bill in widely sent out statement

    CNN

    Shania Shelton and Tami Luhby, CNN

    Fri, July 4, 2025 at 12:57 PM CDT

    123

    In this 2022 photo, a woman walks into a Social Security office in Houston. - Mark Felix/The Washington Post/Getty Images/File

    In this 2022 photo, a woman walks into a Social Security office in Houston. - Mark Felix/The Washington Post/Getty Images/File

    The Social Security Administration this week sent out an email to many Americans celebrating the passage of President Donald Trump’s domestic policy bill, and touting the measure’s tax relief for seniors, in a move that analysts said strayed from the agency’s typically apolitical nature.

    “This is a historic step forward for America’s seniors,” said Social Security Commissioner Frank Bisignano in the message. “By significantly reducing the tax burden on benefits, this legislation reaffirms President Trump’s promise to protect Social Security and helps ensure that seniors can better enjoy the retirement they’ve earned.”

    The email — which was also sent to people not yet eligible for Social Security benefits — linked to a blog post on the agency’s website noting that nearly 90% of Social Security beneficiaries will no longer pay federal income taxes on their benefits.

    Although Trump campaigned last year on eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits, congressional Republicans were not able to fulfill that promise in the “One Big Beautiful Bill” because of the rules surrounding reconciliation, the process Senate Republicans used to approve the package without Democratic support.

    Instead, the legislation will provide senior citizens with a $6,000 boost to their standard deduction from 2025 through 2028. The benefit will start to phase out for individuals with incomes of more than $75,000 and married couples with incomes of more than $150,000.

    Trump, GOP lawmakers and administration officials have repeatedly claimed the package eliminates taxes on Social Security benefits. But that is not in the legislation, and the enhanced deduction would not be available to everyone who receives monthly payments from the agency — like people who elect to start receiving benefits at 62 but who are not yet 65.

    In an article released Tuesday titled “No Tax on Social Security is a Reality in the One Big Beautiful Bill,” the White House shared an analysis from the Council of Economic Advisers which said 88% of the 58.5 million seniors age 65-plus who receive Social Security would not pay taxes on their benefits.

    But just over 7 million seniors would have taxable Social Security income that would exceed the enhanced deduction and existing standard and senior deductions, the analysis found.

    As for protecting Social Security, the package is expected to reduce the total taxation of benefits by about $30 billion a year, which would hasten the insolvency of the program’s retirement trust fund from early 2033 to late 2032, according to an analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. It would accelerate the insolvency of Medicare’s hospital insurance trust fund from late 2033 to mid-2032.

    Plus, many seniors would not benefit from either the enhanced deduction or the elimination of taxation on monthly benefits because their incomes are too low, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center. Social Security benefits are not included in taxable income from about half of beneficiaries.

    SSA’s email breaks from norms, analysts say

    The statement was out of the ordinary for many Americans because the SSA director is generally expected to be apolitical, though the agency has received criticism for partisan comments in recent months.

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    Martin O’Malley, who served as commissioner during the Biden administration, was found in May to have violated the Hatch Act for saying in late 2024 that Trump would “deplete Social Security” if his proposals were enacted.

    “I certainly can’t tell anybody who to vote for, but I can tell you that the proposals that are coming from Donald Trump would quickly deplete Social Security, and we wouldn’t be able to pass it on to our kids as our grandparents passed it on to us,” O’Malley said during an interview with WPTF Morning News last October.

    Kathleen Romig, a former senior advisor at SSA during the Biden administration, told CNN she’s received several emails and text messages from people asking her why they received the email, because they haven’t received a similar statement before.

    “People are like, ‘is this real? Is this a scam?’ Because it it’s not what they signed up for. It doesn’t sound like normal government communications, official communications,” Romig said. “It sounds like, you know, partisan.”

    Some people took to social media to question and condemn the political nature of the email.

    “I am not a Social Security recipient but even if I was: Why am I getting an email from SSA celebrating this legislation? How is this an appropriate use of that ostensibly massive database?” reads an X post from Amanda Litman, the president and co-founder of Run for Something, which recruits progressive candidates for down-ballot races.

    Jeff Nesbit, former deputy commissioner for communications at the agency, also criticized the email in an X post: “Unbelievable. I was a deputy commissioner of the Social Security Administration. Appointed by President Biden. The agency has never issued such a blatant political statement. The fact that Trump and his minion running SSA has done this is unconscionable.”

    Romig warned that the population SSA serves, including seniors and people with disabilities, could be more vulnerable to scammers and phishing attempts.

    “It’s really important that we try to protect them from thinking that legitimate communications are illegitimate, and vice versa,” she said. “And I think when we start to blur the line between what is legitimate, official and trustworthy communications from official government channels, then it does open the door for people to not trust what they’re getting that is official.”

    SSA did not respond to CNN’s request for comment.

    For more CNN news and newsletters create an account at CNN.com

  4. 2 hours ago, Mainecat said:

    Trump Plans to Start Notifying Countries of US Tariffs Up to 70%

    Source: msn/Bloomberg

    5h


    US President Donald Trump said his administration will probably start notifying trading partners Friday of the new US tariff on their exports effective Aug. 1, while reiterating a preference for simplicity over complicated negotiations five days before his deadline for deals.

    Trump told reporters that about “10 or 12” letters would go out Friday, with additional letters coming “over the next few days.”

    “By the ninth they’ll be fully covered,” Trump added, referring to a July 9 deadline he initially set for countries to reach deals with the US to avoid higher import duties he has threatened. “They’ll range in value from maybe 60 or 70% tariffs to 10 and 20% tariffs,” he added.

    US talks with economies from Indonesia and South Korea to the European Union and Switzerland are reaching critical stages, where the most contentious issues are hammered out. Trump’s latest threat, which fits his pattern of issuing ultimatums to break any impasses, aligns with earlier statements that some nations won’t have a say in their tariff level.

    Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/trump-plans-to-start-notifying-countries-of-us-tariffs-up-to-70/ar-AA1HVzpt

    Perfect news!!

  5. Posted

    CBS News

    House passes "big, beautiful bill," sending it to Trump in 218-214 vote

    Kaia Hubbard

    Thu, July 3, 2025 at 6:57 PM UTC

    4 min read

    3188f194399dbdcaf5ce427b70fe9a5a

    House passes "big, beautiful bill," sending it to Trump in 218-214 vote

    Washington — The House on Thursday passed the signature piece of legislation of President Trump's second term, approving a massive bill that includes trillions of dollars in tax and spending cuts while ramping up funding for defense and the administration's immigration agenda.

    The lower chamber voted 218 to 214 to approve the measure, with two Republicans — Reps. Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania — joining all Democrats in opposing the bill. The Senate passed the legislation, dubbed the "big, beautiful bill," earlier this week.

    President Trump plans to sign the bill at a ceremony at the White House on Friday, coinciding with the July 4 holiday.

  6. Posted


    Trump settlement triggers 'widespread distress' at CBS News

    Reuters

    Wed, July 2, 2025 at 1:34 PM CDT

    2.1k

    078440b68659d07609b7c8ab9fa7e9e1

    LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA (Reuters) -Paramount Global's settlement of the "60 Minutes" lawsuit filed by U.S. President Donald Trump provoked condemnation on Wednesday from CBS News current and former employees, press freedom advocates and legislators.

    Paramount's agreement to pay $16 million to resolve a civil suit over what Trump alleged was the network's deceptive editing of an interview with presidential candidate Kamala Harris sets a dangerous precedent that threatens the free press, journalism advocates warned.

    One current "60 Minutes" employee who spoke with Reuters said that during a call Wednesday, newsroom staff expressed "widespread distress" about the settlement and concerns about the future of the CBS News prime time news magazine and its hard-hitting brand of journalism.

    The staffer, who requested anonymity to speak publicly about his employer, said that while CBS News avoided the worst outcome in its settlement with Trump - an apology - the agreement nonetheless sets a "horrible precedent" in agreeing to make public transcripts of future interviews with presidential candidates.

    The settlement follows ABC News's decision in December to pay $15 million to settle a defamation lawsuit over anchor George Stephanopoulos's on-air description of the president's conduct in the E. Jean Carroll case.

    "With two major network owners bowing to the president in quick succession, the danger is clear: emboldened politicians and powerful actors will feel more free than ever to weaponize lawsuits and bring regulatory pressure to bear to silence and censor independent journalism," said Tim Richardson, journalism and disinformation program director at free-speech advocate PEN America.

    On Wednesday, U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren called for an investigation into the settlement, which will be paid to a fund supporting Trump's future presidential library, said she will soon introduce legislation to "rein in corruption through presidential library donations."

    $10 BILLION LAWSUIT

    Trump filed the $10-billion lawsuit against CBS in October, alleging the network deceptively edited an interview that aired on its “60 Minutes” news program with then-vice president and presidential candidate Kamala Harris to “tip the scales in favor of the Democratic Party” in the election. In an amended complaint filed in February, Trump bumped his claim for damages to $20 billion.

    CBS aired two different versions of Harris's response to a question about the Israel-Hamas war, according to the lawsuit filed in federal court in Texas. CBS previously dismissed the lawsuit as "completely without merit" and asked a judge to dismiss the case.

    Steve Kroft, retired long-time "60 Minutes" correspondent called the settlement a "travesty" adding, "This is but the latest attempt by the Administration to damage the country’s institutions and encroach upon the rights granted to the people under the First Amendment."

    Rome Hartman, one of the producers on the Harris segment who retired from CBS two weeks ago, called the settlement "a cowardly capitulation by the corporate leaders of Paramount, and a fundamental betrayal of '60 Minutes' and CBS News."

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    Like other current and former staffers, Rome lays blame at the feet of Paramount controlling shareholder Shari Redstone, who needs Trump administration approval for its $8.4 billion merger with Skydance Media.

    The Redstone family's payout for the sale of National Amusements, which holds the family's controlling stake in Paramount, will be about $1.75 billion, Reuters previously reported.

    "They settled in order to preserve Shari Redstone's payday," Hartman said.

    Paramount has said the lawsuit is "completely separate from, and unrelated to" the Skydance transaction and the pending FCC approval process.

    CBS News co-CEO George Cheeks told investors during Wednesday's annual shareholder meeting that Paramount opted to settle the lawsuit to avoid the "unpredictable cost" of mounting a legal defense, and the possibility of an adverse outcome that would cause reputational damage."

    Paramount and CBS did not provide additional comment.

    FCC Chair Brendan Carr, who was named chair by Trump on Jan 20, said last week the commission was continuing to review the transaction. The FCC did not make a decision by the 180-day informal deadline in mid-May.

    INCREASED SCRUTINY

    As the months-long legal standoff between Trump and Paramount dragged on, seven current and former journalists at “60 Minutes” said they have experienced heightened oversight over their work, including high-level executives sitting in on screenings, extensive review of any story touching on the Trump administration or the war in Gaza, and story lists being scrutinized at the highest level. However, no "60 Minutes" stories were blocked from airing.

    "60 Minutes" lost a key ally in May, insiders said, when CBS News President Wendy McMahon, who defended the news organization from meddling, resigned, saying “it’s become clear that the company and I do not agree on a path forward.”

    She followed “60 Minutes” executive producer Bill Owens, who resigned in April after months of increasing oversight over the long-running newsmagazine, at the urging of Redstone, according to three people familiar with the matter.

    “Today is a sad day for press freedom," said Jameel Jaffer, executive director of the Knight First Amendment Institute at Columbia University, who said he believes Paramount would have prevailed in court. "Now Trump’s presidential library will be a permanent monument to Paramount’s surrender, a continual reminder of its failure to defend freedoms that are essential to our democracy.”

  7. Posted

    AOC breaks silence on suburban yearbook pic but still clings to ‘Bronx girl’ claims: ‘Embarrassing herself’

    NY Post

    David Propper, Jorge Fitz-Gibbon

    Sun, June 29, 2025 at 11:56 AM CDT

    1.7k

    ec4b73666a1a0fa3d541acaa69cf6491

    Lefty firebrand Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez spoke out on her suburban high school yearbook pic — but still continued to dodge her Westchester County upbringing.

    “I’m proud of how I grew up and talk about it all the time,” AOC said on X Friday. “My mom cleaned houses and I helped. We cleaned tutors’ homes in exchange for SAT prep.

    “Growing up between the Bronx and Yorktown deeply shaped my views of inequality & it’s a big reason I believe the things I do today!”

    Despite her ‘Bronx girl’ claims, AOC graduated from suburban Yorktown High School in 2007 as “Sandy Cortez”. Courtesy Matt Slater

    Despite her ‘Bronx girl’ claims, AOC graduated from suburban Yorktown High School in 2007 as “Sandy Cortez”. Courtesy Matt Slater

    But the Democratic Congresswoman’s “Bronx girl” claims have repeatedly come under fire, with folks in the Northern Westchester community remembering her as Sandy Cortez from Yorktown Heights.

    “She’s embarrassing herself for doing everything possible to avoid saying she grew up in the suburbs instead of the Bronx,” state Assemblyman Matt Slater (R-Yorktown) said Sunday.

    “She has said she visited extended family, she has said she commuted,” Slater said. “Now she’s in between. It’s clearly desperate attempts to protect the lie that she is from the Bronx.”

    Ocasio-Cortez, who represents part of the Bronx and Queens, traded online barbs with President Trump last week after she called for his impeachment for bypassing Congress for the Iranian airstrikes.

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, 35, grew up in this suburban home in Yorktown Heights and attended local schools.. J.C. Rice

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, 35, grew up in this suburban home in Yorktown Heights and attended local schools.. J.C. Rice

    Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez got into an online spat with President Trump, claiming she’s a “Bronx girl.” LP Media

    Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez got into an online spat with President Trump, claiming she’s a “Bronx girl.” LP Media

    Trump called the liberal firebrand “one of the ‘dumbest’ people in Congress,” leading Ocasio-Cortez to rip into the commander-in-chief in a series of tweets.

    “Also, I’m a Bronx girl. You should know that we can eat Queens boys for breakfast. Respectfully,” Ocasio-Cortez said in reference to the president’s Queens childhood.

    Ocasio-Cortez was born in the Bronx but her family moved to Yorktown when she was 5 years old and she went on to graduate from Yorktown High School in 2007.

    The left-wing darling, 35, has taken heat for her suburban roots since she pulled off an upset win in 2018 to burst onto the national stage.

  8. US strikes set Iran's nuclear program back 'many years,' Israeli assessment finds

    Rachel Wolf, Jacqui Heinrich, Peter Doocy

    Wed, June 25, 2025 at 4:13 PM UTC

    2 min read

    86aba5e246064b2380d713e6c702e837

    Yahoo is using AI to generate takeaways from this article. This means the info may not always match what's in the article. Reporting mistakes helps us improve the experience.Generate Key Takeaways

    An Israeli assessment determined that the U.S. strikes on Iran set the country’s nuclear program back "many years."

    The Israel Atomic Energy Commission said that the U.S. destroyed "critical infrastructure" at the Fordow nuclear facility and rendered it "inoperable."

    "The devastating U.S. strike on Fordow destroyed the site's critical infrastructure and rendered the enrichment facility inoperable. We assess that the American strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, combined with Israeli strikes on other elements of Iran's military nuclear program, have set back Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons by many years," the Israel Atomic Energy Commission said in a statement. "The achievement can continue indefinitely if Iran does not get access to nuclear material."

    President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance in the Situation Room as the U.S. strikes Iran

    President Donald Trump, right, holds a meeting alongside Vice President J.D. Vance in the Situation Room at the White House in Washington, D.C., on June 21, 2025.

    The Israeli assessment seemingly aligns with the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei’s statement on the status of the site. According to The Associated Press, Baghaei said that the country’s "nuclear installations have been badly damaged, that’s for sure."

    In the early hours of June 22 local time, Iran’s Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities were hit. U.S. B-2 stealth bombers used 30,000-pound bunker busters on Fordow, which was Iran’s main underground enrichment site.

    Israel hit the site again on Monday as the country carried out strikes on roads leading to the underground facility.

    The latest strike on Fordow comes as the Israel Defense Forces said Israel also launched a series of strikes targeting the notorious Evin prison and several Iranian military command centers in an "ongoing effort to degrade the Iranian regime’s military capabilities."

    Before and after images at Fordow Nuclear facility

    This satellite image comparison from Maxar Technologies shows a nuclear facility near Fordow, Iran, before and after U.S. airstrikes were carried out on June 22, 2025. The strike targeted suspected tunnel entrances associated with Iran’s underground enrichment infrastructure.

    Iran's nuclear chief, Mohammad Eslami, said on Tuesday that the country was assessing the damage and preparing to restore the facilities, according to Reuters. He added that Iran’s "plan is to prevent interruptions in the process of production and services."

    Both President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to respond if Iran rebuilds its nuclear program.

    Original article source: US strikes set Iran's nuclear program back 'many years,' Israeli assessment finds

  9. I served on JD many years ago, they were no parking fees and I got paid for serving, I really liked it, found it very interesting and while on an elevator with one of the judges I asked how I could serve more time but was told that's not how folks are chosen so was not called back ever again.

  10. ·

    Edited by XCR1250

    10 minutes ago, Highmark said:

    What is most amazing is the idiots on here won't actually pay attention to the evidence we have on here and just bring it back up like its going to make a difference or just to make themselves think they are important.

    1. Trump thru Epstein out of Mar A Lago

    2. Epstein said he had no dirt on Trump

    3. Victim lawyers said Trump even offered to help....literally the only one with any ties to Epstein that did.

    4. If there was dirt on Trump it would have gotten out long ago no matter who else it burned.

    Attorney Brad Edwards, who represented 70 victims of Jeffrey Epstein, has said that Donald Trump offered to help him when he was pursuing information about Epstein in 2009. Edwards reported that Trump was the only person who responded to his inquiries, willing to speak and provide information that proved helpful in the investigation. 

    Individuals named in the documents are not necessarily accused of wrongdoing and Trump has not been linked to any offenses committed by Epstein or Maxwell.

    Epstein's former pilot, Lawrence Visoski Jr, testified in 2021 that Trump, along with other powerful men, flew aboard Epstein's private plane on various occasions.

    Visoski testified that he never saw evidence of sexual activity or sexual acts with underage girls on the flights.

    Who Flew on Jeffrey Epstein's 'Lolita Express' Plane?

    • Donald J. Trump

    • Bill Clinton

    • Kevin Spacey

    • Chris Tucker

    • Bill Gates

    • Prince Andrew

    • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

    • Violinist Itzhak Perlman

    • U.S. Sen. John Glenn

    • Former Senate majority leader George Mitchell

    All names have been reported in Associated Press and CNN.


  11. Posted

    Why oil is tumbling and stocks are rising after Iran launched missiles at US bases

    CNN Business

    Matt Egan and David Goldman, CNN

    Mon, June 23, 2025 at 3:07 PM CDT

    25

    Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. - Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

    Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. - Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

    Oil sold off sharply and stocks rallied after Iran fired missiles toward US bases in Qatar and Iraq that appeared to be intercepted.

    Traders are betting that Iran doesn’t have the willingness or capability to retaliate against US forces. And they’re hoping that this will be the extent of the Iranian response.

    US stock market investors are also breathing a huge sigh of relief. A sustained spike in oil prices would damage the US economy, raising costs for consumers and businesses.

    Falling oil prices lifted US stocks. US crude tumbled 7.2% to $68.51 a barrel, the biggest one-day drop since early April and one of the worst days over the past three years.

    It’s the first time oil has traded below $70 since June 12, a day before Israel began launching strikes at Iran’s nuclear facilities, and marks a dramatic turnaround from the Sunday evening spike of 6% to as high as $78.50 a barrel.

    Meanwhile, the Dow rose 374 points, or 0.89%, reversing course after falling earlier in the afternoon. The S&P 500 gained 0.96% and the Nasdaq Composite was 0.94% higher. CNN’s Fear and Greed Index, which measures market sentiment, ticked into Greed after hovering in Neutral.

    “I think what you’re seeing in many ways is a symbolic attack by Iran,” Kirk Lippold, former commanding officer on the USS Cole, told CNN. “Ten missiles is not that much. Every one is dangerous, every one could kill or maim many Americans. But hopefully at this point we’re not going to see further responses by the Iranians.”

    By comparison, Iran said it launched “hundreds” of missiles against locations across Israel on June 13 in response to Israeli strikes.

    At the moment, all signs point to a limited response: Iranian officials gave Qatar advance notice that an attack was coming before launching missiles toward a US military base located there, according to a source familiar with the matter. The coordination was intended to minimize casualties and preserve an off ramp, the source said.

    The Trump administration was anticipating Iran would retaliate after the US strikes, and the president does not want more military engagement in the region, a senior White House official told CNN Monday.

    A difficult balancing act

    Investing in US markets lately is akin to spinning plates while riding a unicycle balanced on a bowling ball. Traders have to contend with rapidly changing tariffs, mixed economic signals, uncertainty over rates and now an escalating conflict in the Middle East.

    Using conventional wisdom, you might assume that the United States’ historic strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend would send stocks lower and oil prices higher, for fear of retaliation and a potential Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane through which about a fifth of the world’s oil flows. Yet the opposite is true. Bonds are quiet.

    Investors are maintaining their balancing act: It’s not entirely clear what happens next — or what position to take. If the US and Israeli strikes are largely over, and Iranian retaliation is muted, this could be a net positive for markets, lessening volatility and the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran. If the conflict escalates — particularly if Iran cuts off oil supplies to the West — that, combined with a growing trade war, could reignite inflation and a global recession.

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    “As of now, there’s a certain symbology to this,” Cedric Leighton, CNN military analyst and retired US Air Force Colonel, said on CNN Monday afternoon. “If they (Iran) can control their reaction, they wish for an offramp to some degree, but that’s something that remains to be seen. … If we decide to respond more forcefully to this, all bets are off at that point.”

    Meanwhile, oil markets are waiting for evidence of an actual disruption, said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group.

    “Traders have seen a lot of false alarms when it comes to geopolitical disruption risk in the oil market,” McNally told CNN. “Unless there’s a material interruption in gulf energy, production, or flows, I think any further spikes will be contained.”

    Even Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a CNBC interview on Monday that he expected oil to fall, given the level of tensions — but prices have sunk more sharply than he predicted.

    “I would not expect much movement of oil upwards from the tensions that are going on,” Wright said. “I’m not surprised oil prices have moved down a little bit, maybe more than I would have guessed.”

    Safe-haven trades, which tend to boom in times of global strife, were muted: Gold rose just 0.2% to $3,390 a troy ounce. Treasury yields were all very slightly lower as bond gained a bit.

    The dollar fell, too, slipping 0.3% Monday afternoon. It had been up nearly 1% earlier.

    America’s currency has tumbled after the Trump administration put in place historic tariffs on foreign imports as investors feared a looming inflation-induced economic downturn. The dollar, widely referred to as the world’s reserve currency, tends to rally in times of global unease and conflict, but some market observers questioned if that would happen again under Trump’s “America First” policies.

    It’s not clear that fear of conflict in the Middle East was lifting the dollar, earlier Monday though — it was more likely getting a boost from higher oil prices, since oil globally is traded in dollars.

    “While the broader bias still leans toward structural dollar weakness, escalating Middle East tensions are injecting support for the greenback via the commodity channel,” said George Vessey, lead FX and macro strategist at Conerva, in a note to investors Monday morning. “That channel will remain central in the days ahead, as Iran — according to state-run TV — has vowed to retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz.”

    So there’s a risk that an escalation sends oil and gas prices surging and the economy slowing just as higher global tariffs kick in. The Federal Reserve may be hamstrung if inflation surges, unable to lower its key interest rates that tend to lift the economy and markets.

    For now, Wall Street is largely looking past the Middle East conflict.

    CNN’s Alayna Treene, Zachary Cohen and Haley Britzky contributed to this report.

    For more CNN news and newsletters create an account at CNN.com