Straightforward from here:

1. Rs take House narrowly, Ds hold Senate and key governors.

2. D Senate lets Biden govern.

3. R House good politically for Ds (cf. 1994, 2010).

4. Trump runs, wins nomination.

5. Biden doesn't run, next gen D ticket (e.g. Buttigieg-Whitmer) ftw.😎

— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) November 6, 2022