According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), interest costs consumed a record 3.25% of GDP and roughly 19% of all federal revenue in fiscal year 2025. If Treasury yields remain elevated at current levels — roughly 55 basis points above Congressional Budget Office projections across the yield curve — interest costs would grow 2.5-fold, climbing from $880 billion today to $2.5 trillion by 2036. That would push debt interest’s share of federal revenue to almost 30% — nearly triple its historical average over the past half-century.

The numbers are staggering in their own right. But CRFB warns the real danger lies in the mechanics behind them. When the average interest rate on the national debt exceeds the economic growth rate — what economists call r>g — debt can begin rising rapidly and uncontrollably. Under the elevated-rate scenario, that gap would reach 75 basis points by 2036, making it increasingly difficult for even responsible fiscal policy to stop the spiral. The combination of high debt levels and a large gap between r and g can lead to a debt spiral — where rising interest costs boost debt, rising debt boosts interest rates, and rising rates boost interest costs further.

By 2027, under the high-rate scenario, interest costs would overtake Medicare spending to become the second-largest government program — eclipsed only by Social Security. By 2036, the government would be spending nearly as much on interest as on Social Security’s entire retirement program.

CRFB’s prescription is blunt: lawmakers must work to bring interest rates down and prevent high rates from crowding out other priorities or sparking a fiscal crisis. The most effective lever, the group argues, is deficit reduction — which can ease near-term inflationary pressure, take downward pressure off long-term yields by reducing economic crowding-out, and shrink the debt stock on which the government pays interest. “With debt approaching record levels,” CRFB writes, “there is little time to lose”.

Fortune

Interest on the national debt is eating a record 19% of f...

The 30-year Treasury yield just hit its highest point since before the Great Recession. A leading fiscal watchdog warns the timing could not be worse.

@Pete

we all realize the Democrats aren't going to do anything about the debt. the Republicans had an opportunity to do something but blew it and are just allowing more debt to be piled on.

what a shame...

2 minutes ago, Deephaven said:

Ah, butt hurt krom. Asks a stupid irrelevant question and wants an answer because he thinks it's a gotcha. Best part is this wasn't even a question but racer claimed he had the answer and then won't share. No deflection here. After he answers I will be glad to share what will actually work. His braindead idea won't.

Wrong as usual but still deflecting from the fact that you don't have a spine, and always refuses to ever answer a single question.

Edited June 1Jun 1 by krom

2 hours ago, Crnr2Crnr said:

talking about it ... crickets

of course I know, but if you think that solitary action was the final nail in the coffin you're delusional. demand for us treasuries actually increased shortly after the 2011 action

The United States has had its sovereign credit rating downgraded three times by the major credit rating agencies:

2011: Standard & Poor's (S&P) downgraded the U.S. from AAA to AA+ following a protracted debt ceiling standoff.

2023: Fitch Ratings downgraded the U.S. from AAA to AA+ citing fiscal deterioration and rising debt burdens

2025: Moody's (the last major agency to maintain a perfect rating) downgraded the U.S. from Aaa to AA1 due to persistent, large annual fiscal deficits and escalating interest costs.

why do you think Trump wants the debt ceiling increased or eliminated if he's actually interested in reducing the actual debt? that sounds like something a liberal Democrat might say or attempt.

derr...

What would make you happy? Bessent putting on a hard hat, hopping in a bulldozer and breaking ground on some of the trillions being repatriated to the country? Bessents stools have more intelligence than some of you guys.

2 hours ago, racer254 said:

He has to have AI generate a response though. Took how many hours?

Yeah but, did you figure it out yet? How many hours has it been?

2 hours ago, racer254 said:

He only wants to hold republicans against the wall for solving the debt "crisis" because democrats run on "more spending" what fucking concept

No he complained about it during the Biden admin too.

28 minutes ago, akvanden said:

Yeah but, did you figure it out yet? How many hours has it been?

No he complained about it during the Biden admin too.

I am glad he is complaining about it. Again, for the cheap seats, Trump has pushed tarrifs, pushback from karen, Trump created doge, pushback from karen, Trump is trying to get rid of federal funding for many wasted public funds like California rail. Trump getting rid of or reducing the size of departments like dept of education, pushback. Trump slowed down illegal immigration. Nothing but pushback

7 minutes ago, racer254 said:

I am glad he is complaining about it. Again, for the cheap seats, Trump has pushed tarrifs, pushback from karen, Trump created doge, pushback from karen, Trump is trying to get rid of federal funding for many wasted public funds like California rail. Trump getting rid of or reducing the size of departments like dept of education, pushback. Trump slowed down illegal immigration. Nothing but pushback

Because cunt2cunt is nothing but a whiny TDS cunt. NOTHING would make him say anything less. A real fucking jackass just like 1/2 this country. Conservative my ass.

31 minutes ago, racer254 said:

I am glad he is complaining about it. Again, for the cheap seats, Trump has pushed tarrifs, pushback from karen, Trump created doge, pushback from karen, Trump is trying to get rid of federal funding for many wasted public funds like California rail. Trump getting rid of or reducing the size of departments like dept of education, pushback. Trump slowed down illegal immigration. Nothing but pushback

Well of course you’ll get pushback on doge and tariffs, you need to raise taxes legally. And all of that is peanuts compared to the proposed $1.5T defense budget. We still continue to have a spending problem without the willpower to legally pay for it.

4 hours ago, racer254 said:

He has to have AI generate a response though. Took how many hours? He only wants to hold republicans against the wall for solving the debt "crisis" because democrats run on "more spending" what fucking concept 🤔

he's a busy guy at times and doesn't live here to challenge your idiocy all day, every day

no he doesn't but can you refute any of it or reply to any of the other questions?

3 hours ago, DriftBusta said:

What would make you happy? Bessent putting on a hard hat, hopping in a bulldozer and breaking ground on some of the trillions being repatriated to the country? Bessents stools have more intelligence than some of you guys.

wtf are you talking about?

try English as at least a second language

2 hours ago, akvanden said:

Yeah but, did you figure it out yet? How many hours has it been?

No he complained about it during the Biden admin too.

he's complained about going back to Bush1, but they shouldn't let that ruin their narrative

1 hour ago, racer254 said:

I am glad he is complaining about it. Again, for the cheap seats, Trump has pushed tarrifs, pushback from karen, Trump created doge, pushback from karen, Trump is trying to get rid of federal funding for many wasted public funds like California rail. Trump getting rid of or reducing the size of departments like dept of education, pushback. Trump slowed down illegal immigration. Nothing but pushback

did he sell his tariff TAXES through the Republican controlled Congress?

bull... China shop

1 hour ago, Pete said:

Because cunt2cunt is nothing but a whiny TDS cunt. NOTHING would make him say anything less. A real fucking jackass just like 1/2 this country. Conservative my ass.

you're dumber than Racer, if that's even possible

okay, back on the road with me and my 6 hour work day, two days a week...

that means I won't immediately be able to respond to whatever idiocy Petard and Racertard post next... 😁

1 hour ago, Crnr2Crnr said:

did he sell his tariff TAXES through the Republican controlled Congress?

Now you want to complain how its done. You're nothing more than a hypocritical blowhard. "But what about congress.....whaaaa" do you think perot was going to get all his pipe dreams through congress?

Edited June 1Jun 1 by racer254

9 minutes ago, racer254 said:

Now you want to complain how its done. You're nothing more than a hypocritical blowhard. "But what about congress.....whaaaa" do you think perot was going to get all his pipe dreams through congress?

I complained about it on day one when he bypassed Congress, where tariffs traditionally stem from. If his tariffs were so beneficial and fucking brilliant it would have been an easy sell right dimwit? not your boy... he just decided to bull in the China shop his way right past them.

oh, you wanna talk Perot now, but not when it's not convenient to your elementary school level rationale... fake as fuck conservative .

22 minutes ago, Crnr2Crnr said:

I complained about it on day one when he bypassed Congress, where tariffs traditionally stem from. If his tariffs were so beneficial and fucking brilliant it would have been an easy sell right dimwit? not your boy... he just decided to bull in the China shop his way right past them.

oh, you wanna talk Perot now, but not when it's not convenient to your elementary school level rationale... fake as fuck conservative .

Yes you are fake as fuck.. and a fucking TDS fucktard.. stumpy Wausau wart. Go help the left more they need your type.

45 minutes ago, Crnr2Crnr said:

I complained about it on day one when he bypassed Congress, where tariffs traditionally stem from. If his tariffs were so beneficial and fucking brilliant it would have been an easy sell right dimwit? not your boy... he just decided to bull in the China shop his way right past them.

oh, you wanna talk Perot now, but not when it's not convenient to your elementary school level rationale... fake as fuck conservative .

I don't want to talk about the past. Perot was never going to win and if he did, it would have been the same as what trump is going through, but at that time the dems didn't have the lawyer tactics mastered like they do now. Also the clinton's were not in national politics yet. They helped with the current bullshit process of lawfare tactics that the dems keep using.

Been traveling for three weeks. I can’t recall a slower Memorial Day for traffic and travelers. No gas lines or traffic jams. Currently in a remote part of New Mexico near Taos. Camped at 9000 ft. Beautiful area.

8 hours ago, racer254 said:

I don't want to talk about the past. Perot was never going to win and if he did, it would have been the same as what trump is going through, but at that time the dems didn't have the lawyer tactics mastered like they do now. Also the clinton's were not in national politics yet. They helped with the current bullshit process of lawfare tactics that the dems keep using.

Yes, trump sucks at negotiating and was a terrible choice.