According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), interest costs consumed a record 3.25% of GDP and roughly 19% of all federal revenue in fiscal year 2025. If Treasury yields remain elevated at current levels — roughly 55 basis points above Congressional Budget Office projections across the yield curve — interest costs would grow 2.5-fold, climbing from $880 billion today to $2.5 trillion by 2036. That would push debt interest’s share of federal revenue to almost 30% — nearly triple its historical average over the past half-century.

The numbers are staggering in their own right. But CRFB warns the real danger lies in the mechanics behind them. When the average interest rate on the national debt exceeds the economic growth rate — what economists call r>g — debt can begin rising rapidly and uncontrollably. Under the elevated-rate scenario, that gap would reach 75 basis points by 2036, making it increasingly difficult for even responsible fiscal policy to stop the spiral. The combination of high debt levels and a large gap between r and g can lead to a debt spiral — where rising interest costs boost debt, rising debt boosts interest rates, and rising rates boost interest costs further.

By 2027, under the high-rate scenario, interest costs would overtake Medicare spending to become the second-largest government program — eclipsed only by Social Security. By 2036, the government would be spending nearly as much on interest as on Social Security’s entire retirement program.

CRFB’s prescription is blunt: lawmakers must work to bring interest rates down and prevent high rates from crowding out other priorities or sparking a fiscal crisis. The most effective lever, the group argues, is deficit reduction — which can ease near-term inflationary pressure, take downward pressure off long-term yields by reducing economic crowding-out, and shrink the debt stock on which the government pays interest. “With debt approaching record levels,” CRFB writes, “there is little time to lose”.

Fortune

Interest on the national debt is eating a record 19% of f...

The 30-year Treasury yield just hit its highest point since before the Great Recession. A leading fiscal watchdog warns the timing could not be worse.

@Pete

we all realize the Democrats aren't going to do anything about the debt. the Republicans had an opportunity to do something but blew it and are just allowing more debt to be piled on.

what a shame...

33 minutes ago, Zambroski said:

Huh? Stop whining about America. Deal with your absolute mess of a shit nation up there. July is just around the corner....and you're all about to get what you've earned. Elbows up!

I wasn't talking about America Scott , I was asking you personally.

55 minutes ago, Deephaven said:

Laughing sure helps cure it! So does supporting someone who campaigned on solving it and then does the opposite. BRILLIANT!

Vs a candidate that openly says they are going to spend and get our credit rating lowered?

39 minutes ago, Crnr2Crnr said:

ok, I was going to buy all my friends new sleds with some of the money but you said NO and ruined it for everyone

great job Brownie

Well, disclosing tidbits like that before I judge would make a difference you know? Clod!

3 minutes ago, Zambroski said:

Well, disclosing tidbits like that before I judge would make a difference you know? Clod!

funny thing is, you were getting a BRP product because of your love for Canada and shoving your hands in confined spaces

13 minutes ago, racer254 said:

Vs a candidate that openly says they are going to spend and get our credit rating lowered?

so... she was honest and he lied?

what's Trump's posture on the debt ceiling... this week?

fake

ass

conservatives

2 minutes ago, Crnr2Crnr said:

funny thing is, you were getting a BRP product because of your love for Canada and shoving your hands in confined spaces

LOL! Some pretty nice ones available right now too. But fuck that engineering. Still, if Canada can do anything good, its performance of the doo. Those RS's were wicked!

Just now, Zambroski said:

LOL! Some pretty nice ones available right now too. But fuck that engineering. Still, if Canada can do anything good, its performance of the doo. Those RS's were wicked!

until you have to actually wrench on one... fuck that shit.

I can actually see nearly everything under the plastics on this Polaris contraption, especially with the piece of carry-on luggage out of the way.

2 minutes ago, Crnr2Crnr said:

until you have to actually wrench on one... fuck that shit.

I can actually see nearly everything under the plastics on this Polaris contraption, especially with the piece of carry-on luggage out of the way.

I put new slugs in the 21 at 16 hours. I sold the 24 before I needed to do it again. What a fucking nightmare.

11 minutes ago, Zambroski said:

I put new slugs in the 21 at 16 hours. I sold the 24 before I needed to do it again. What a fucking nightmare.

see group text, I just started a pair of them

4 minutes ago, Crnr2Crnr said:

see group text, I just started a pair of them

I saw somebody said "dick head spring" a bit ago and I fucking LUL'd!

I gotta fire up my ride tomorrow.

11 minutes ago, Zambroski said:

I saw somebody said "dick head spring" a bit ago and I fucking LUL'd!

I gotta fire up my ride tomorrow.

that was me... and it was, and now it's not

1 minute ago, Crnr2Crnr said:

that was me... and it was, and now it's not

1 hour ago, Deephaven said:

Laughing sure helps cure it! So does supporting someone who campaigned on solving it and then does the opposite. BRILLIANT!

From the guy who refuses to say what he would do to reduce it...

Edited May 28May 28 by krom

Cut bullshit spending. There's plenty of that.

4 hours ago, Deephaven said:

Cut bullshit spending. There's plenty of that.

USAID, learing centres were a good start. Too bad this year's been a shit show.

8 hours ago, krom said:

From the guy who refuses to say what he would do to reduce it...

There's the rub. The sacred cows of each party.

Top JPMorgan analyst maps 5 ways America’s debt crisis could unfold—and the ‘best case’ is still alarming

Scenario 1: Steadily rising debt with rising borrowing costs (the baseline)

Scenario 2: Slow deterioration with little market reaction (the best case)

Scenario 3: A full-blown fiscal crisis (the worst case)

Scenario 4: Reining in debt through spending cuts

Scenario 5: Reining in debt through tax increases

Fortune

Top JPMorgan analyst maps 5 ways America's debt crisis co...

JPMorgan's David Kelly maps out five scenarios for the national debt over the next decade — the best-case is pretty, pretty bad.

13 hours ago, Deephaven said:

Cut bullshit spending. There's plenty of that.

That's absolutely brilliant! Can't believe no one in the last 75 years thought of it.

You are as intelligent as you claim.

2 minutes ago, krom said:

That's absolutely brilliant! Can't believe no one in the last 75 years thought of it.

You are as intelligent as you claim.

(See Above)

as unpopular as it is... it's going to require spending cuts and increased taxation to reel this mess in which would be highly unpopular and political suicide regardless of who does it.... but it needs to be done.

where's the adults in DC willing to even discuss the matter... idk

51 minutes ago, Crnr2Crnr said:

(See Above)

as unpopular as it is... it's going to require spending cuts and increased taxation to reel this mess in which would be highly unpopular and political suicide regardless of who does it.... but it needs to be done.

where's the adults in DC willing to even discuss the matter... idk

And you complained about tariffs. Did you vote for Scott Walker or complain about his fiscal policies?

4 hours ago, racer254 said:

And you complained about tariffs. Did you vote for Scott Walker or complain about his fiscal policies?

Tariffs are taxes on Americans, aren't they?

You love taxes right fake conservative

15 hours ago, Voodoo said:

USAID, learing centres were a good start. Too bad this year's been a shit show.

There's the rub. The sacred cows of each party.

Usaid is likely a drop in the bucket on spending on what the Trump admin is negotiating with Iran to end the war.

“The New York Times reported that the US would agree to setting up a $300 billion "reconstruction programme". The Iranian official said the money would be promised to Iran in the event of a final agreement being signed.”

4 hours ago, Pete said:

is that you every time I toss up a thread about the ever growing debt you struggle to understand?

15 hours ago, Crnr2Crnr said:

Tariffs are taxes on Americans, aren't they?

You love taxes right fake conservative

If so, why are you against them? You have advocating for raising taxes, this should be right up your alley.

BTW, tariffs are fees on other countries for the goods they want to sell to the United States. Why does this simple fact continue to be a misconception to the anti-tariff crowd?

3 minutes ago, racer254 said:

If so, why are you against them? You have advocating for raising taxes, this should be right up your alley.

BTW, tariffs are fees on other countries for the goods they want to sell to the United States. Why does this simple fact continue to be a misconception to the anti-tariff crowd?

which class of Americans did his tariffs target the hardest?

who actually pays the tariffs on inbound goods from those countries you knucklehead? do these importers and their retailers just absorb the cost of the tariffs as a cost of doing business or pass them along to the consumers?

do you recall what Ross advocated for?

Ross Perot’s historical tax plan focused on deficit reduction through a combination of increased individual taxes (particularly for higher earners and retirees) and targeted tax incentives for corporations.

Individual Taxes

Income Tax Rates: Proposed raising the top individual tax rate from \(31\%\) to \(33\%\) for individuals earning more than \(\$55,550\) (and couples earning over \(\$89,250\)).

Social Security: Subjected \(85\%\) of Social Security benefits to taxation for recipients with incomes over \(\$25,000\) individually or \(\$32,000\) for joint filers.

Deduction Limits: Capped mortgage interest deductions at the first \(\$250,000\) of a mortgage and proposed taxing portions of employer-provided health insurance as income.

Excise Taxes: Included a phased-in, significant hike in gasoline taxes to boost federal revenue.

Corporate & Business Taxes

Capital Gains: Proposed eliminating capital gains taxes entirely for small businesses and reducing them for long-term corporate investments to stimulate business activity.

Business Credits: Advocated for investment tax credits and research and development (R&D) credits for businesses.

Deduction Cuts: Proposed allowing businesses to deduct only \(50\%\) of entertainment expenses (down from \(80\%\)).

what was wrong with that, or something similar to it with inflation adjusted numbers? mind you, this was just targeting deficit reduction and the debt was a measly $4 trillion... and we're near $40 trillion now.