Bwahahaha! The lower 48 is fucked. Another huge El Niño in the forecast meaning It’ll be warm, dry and snowless in the Midwest next winter. New York State will be warm and rainy with snirt covered trails. The climate change denier fucktards will be eating crow for another season, making excuses about closed trails, no snow, thin lake ice and cancelled races. @krom @Mag6240 @mnstang @Crnr2Crnr @Bontz

This is it. You've been wrong since you started your end of the snowmobile world predictions but you've nailed 27!

...go chug another gallon of washer fluid

3 hours ago, Deephaven said:

This is it. You've been wrong since you started your end of the snowmobile world predictions but you've nailed 27!

...go chug another gallon of washer fluid

Wanna bet on that pussy?

Gladly bet you once you prove you aren't a welcher and pay up on the last three you lost.

11 minutes ago, Deephaven said:

Gladly bet you once you prove you aren't a welcher and pay up on the last three you lost.

Still full of shit and a pussy. Got it.

Other people are pussies because you welch?

5 hours ago, Deephaven said:

Other people are pussies because you welch?

Prove I welched Deepthroater.

Come on buddy! Show us all the “proof” you keep alluding to but never produce.

Let’s go liar, show us the “proof”!

Already have. It's on you to prove you didn't.

2 minutes ago, Deephaven said:

Already have. It's on you to prove you didn't.

Deepthroater is already making excuses. Let’s go liar, show the forum your “proof”.

The only waiting is you. Everyone else knows. Not a single person on here dumb enough to defend you.

You bet, you lost, you welched.

3 minutes ago, Deephaven said:

The only waiting is you. Everyone else knows. Not a single person on here dumb enough to defend you.

Come on Deepthroater, show the forum the “proof”. Why’s it taking you so long? Let’s see it buddy!

It’s already started. The Naytahwause race should’ve had a jet ski class.

Next winter will be brown and snowless for Minnesota.

Shit i better get my riding in this winter then in snowless mn!!

way it looks be riding into april if not all the way till may!!!

8 hours ago, X2700 said:

Shit i better get my riding in this winter then in snowless mn!!

way it looks be riding into april if not all the way till may!!!

Riding the only square mile of snow left in Minnesota sounds epic.

Naytahwaush was a jet ski race with all the standing water on the lake. ERX was raining with a mud bog parking lot and brown ground for miles around.

“Will there be a super El Niño later this year? Here’s what that would mean.

New data suggests this has the potential to become one of the strongest El Niño events on record.

The planet may experience a strong or even a super El Niño later this year, one that could rival the strongest ones in history, according to new climate data recently released by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

A typical El Niño affects regional-to-global weather patterns, as a warming patch of water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean influences what regions could experience droughts, floods and extreme heat. During these relatively rare super El Niño events, happening once every 10 to 15 years on average, the effects may be stronger, more persistent and more widespread.

That’s because sea temperatures in that key region of the Pacific Ocean warm more than 2 degrees Celsius above average, leading to a profound atmospheric response.

Those impacts can include the frequency and location of heat waves, the locations of flooding downpours and drought could focus, where hurricanes may hit, and declining sea ice concentrations. For example, the Western United States could face a hotter than average summer”

Excerpt From

“Will there be a super El Niño later this year? Here’s what that would mean.”

Ben Noll

The Washington Post

Will there be a super El Niño later this year? Here’s wha...

The planet may experience a strong or even a super El Niño later this year. And it could cause record heat.

Minnesota is fucked… AGAIN.

Edited March 9Mar 9 by AK440

Past 2 winters and majority in the last decade have been below average temp. Law of averages says we will have higher likelihood of above average. That's how this stuff works. We will still be riding snowmobiles no matter what happens. It helps when you own a snowmobile. Looks like 4 days of snow this week. More climate change! AK boy is scared of another 12 degrees above average winter in his fastest warming state 😅😅😅😅 and it's not even close. What a loser haha!

Just now, mnstang said:

Past 2 winters and majority in the last decade have been below average temp. Law of averages says we will have higher likelihood of above average. That's how this stuff works. We will still be riding snowmobiles no matter what happens. It helps when you own a snowmobile. Looks like 4 days of snow this week. More climate change! AK boy is scared of another 12 degrees above average winter in his fastest warming state 😅😅😅😅 and it's not even close. What a loser haha!

It hasn’t. Your bet was for the average temp to be below average from December ‘24 through March ‘25. It wasn’t and you lost. Where’s my $1000 welcher?

1 hour ago, AK440 said:

Riding the only square mile of snow left in Minnesota sounds epic.

Naytahwaush was a jet ski race with all the standing water on the lake. ERX was raining with a mud bog parking lot and brown ground for miles around.

Hundreds of miles of trails still rideable and groomed in mn!!

Gonna be an extended season this year. Typically we are done around this weekend unless you trailer into the woods. It was 50 today but there is so much it didn’t hurt much on the trails. Supposed to get another foot of snow in the next week.

4 hours ago, X2700 said:

Hundreds of miles of trails still rideable and groomed in mn!!

OTB, all in one square mile.

.

80% chance of a strong El Niño this year, 2027 likely to be a record-breaking year

New seasonal modelling from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is pointing to a significant El Niño developing in 2026 — and the implications for global temperatures in 2027 are serious.

Meteorologist Ben Noll, who writes for the Washington Post, summarised the latest ECMWF ensemble output: there is an 80% chance of a strong El Niño by August 2026, a 98% chance of at least a moderate event, and — most striking — a 22% chance of a super El Niño. Those figures are drawn from 50 ensemble members and represent a marked shift in expectations from just a few months ago.

The ECMWF plume shows the NINO3.4 region — the key sea surface temperature index for El Niño monitoring — transitioning from the weak La Niña that persisted through early 2026 (around -0.3°C) to rapidly warming conditions, with ensemble members spreading to between +1.3°C and +3.1°C by September. The clustering of members in the +1.5–2.5°C range by mid-to-late summer is what underpins those probability figures.

What this means for global temperatures

Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, writing on The Climate Brink in December 2025, had already flagged 2027 as a likely record year — but his central estimate of 1.57°C above preindustrial levels assumed only a moderately strong El Niño. The new ECMWF data suggests that a strong-to-super event is now the central scenario, not the tail risk. As Hausfather noted on social media, this would make 2027 "very likely to be the warmest year on record given the historical lag between ENSO and surface temperature."

That lag is crucial. El Niño events typically push global mean surface temperatures to their peak roughly 6–12 months after the SST anomalies themselves peak. A strong El Niño cresting in August–September 2026 would therefore exert its greatest influence on global temperatures in the first half of 2027.

Hausfather's upper bound for 2027 — 1.76°C — was predicated on a very strong event. That figure now looks more like a central expectation than an outlier.

James Hansen had already predicted 2027 temperatures of around 1.7°C, a figure that drew some scepticism when published. Given the new ENSO outlook, that estimate is looking considerably less outlandish.

2026 also revised upward

For 2026 itself, Hausfather notes that the emerging El Niño will push temperatures above his original central estimate of 1.41°C — though 2026 is still unlikely to surpass 2024's record, as the El Niño signal will arrive too late in the year to dominate the annual average.

The picture that is emerging is one of a clear staircase: 2026 warmer than initially expected, and 2027 very probably the hottest year in recorded history.

Minnesota is fucked next winter.

Edited March 10Mar 10 by AK440

How to say you aren't a snowmobiler without saying it : be ecstatic at the possibility of a mild winter.

Checkmate to the low IQ loser

2 hours ago, mnstang said:

How to say you aren't a snowmobiler without saying it : be ecstatic at the possibility of a mild winter.

Checkmate to the low IQ loser

As per the usual you don’t know shit about climate or how an El Niño impacts Alaska.

I’m looking forward to lots of snow and warm temperatures next winter. I’ve currently got over 4’ of snow in my yard. Next year will be even better than this La Niña winter.

You not having any snow next winter makes me smile and laugh.

Chance of El Niño forming in Pacific Ocean may push global temperatures to record highs in 2027

One expert says 2027 could be even hotter than the last three years, which have been the top three warmest on record

Graham ReadfearnEnvironment and climate correspondent

Sat 7 Feb 2026 14.00 EST

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Prefer the Guardian on Google

Weather agencies and climate scientists have pointed to the possibility of an El Niño forming in the Pacific Ocean later this year – a phenomenon that could push global temperatures to all-time record highs in 2027.

Both the US government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology have said some climate models are forecasting an El Niño but both cautioned those results came with uncertainties.

Experts told the Guardian it was too early to be confident, but there were signals in the spread of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific that suggested an El Niño could form in 2026.

The cycle of ocean temperatures in the Pacific – known as the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) – is linked with extreme climate events around the world.

When warmer-than-average waters gather in the east of the equatorial Pacific and extend to the coast of the American continent, this is known as an El Niño and tends to give global temperatures a boost and, in Australia, can be linked to drier and hotter conditions.

• Sign up to get climate and environment editor Adam Morton’s Clear Air column as a free newsletter

The latest southern hemisphere outlook from Australia’s bureau said this week: “Some models suggest the possibility of El Niño development from June.” The bureau cautioned this was a “very long lead time” for predicting an El Niño.

NOAA has also said “there are growing chances of El Niño” but also pointed to uncertainty in the models.

Dr Andrew Watkins, a climate scientist at Monash University and the former head of long-range forecasts at the bureau, said: “We have a lot of warm water stored up in the western tropical Pacific. Typically when the trade winds ease that will slosh back to the east and warm up the areas off South America.

La Niña is here for the summer – but it may not bring what Australians expect

Read more

“The models are going for that to happen over [the Australian] autumn, which is fairly much what you’d expect.”

He said the “precursors are there” for an El Niño but it was too early to tell if the phenomenon would develop.

Associate Professor Andrea Taschetto, an ENSO expert at the University of New South Wales, said a current La Niña – where warmer waters are closer to Australia – was coming to an end, and forecasting beyond that was difficult.

She said the chances of an El Niño developing, or ENSO being neutral, in June to August was currently about 50/50 or “like tossing a coin”.

The past three years have each been in the top three warmest years on record for the planet.

Dr Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at the US-based independent Berkeley Earth research group, said an El Niño that formed in mid-2023 and lasted until around April 2024 had likely added about 0.12C to global temperatures in 2024.

“If El Niño develops later this year it will likely peak around November-January and primarily impact 2027 global surface temperatures, rather than 2026.

“This is why I have predicted that 2027 will likely set a new record [for global temperature] if a moderate to strong El Niño event ends up developing.”

Watkins agreed if an El Niño did develop it would more strongly impact global temperatures in 2027.

“I would be hesitant to bet against a hottest year on record,” he said.

But he said global heating caused mostly by the burning of fossil fuels was now “so strong” that it was “simply overtaking year-to-year variability in terms of air temperature”.

“I don’t think we are surprised by anything any more,” he said. “You might not need a strong El Niño to get these warmer temperatures.”

But, but, but climate change is fake news said @mnstang @Bontz @Crnr2Crnr @Mag6240 @Intel5960X @Deephaven

Edited March 10Mar 10 by AK440

I marked it down in my 2026 planner to cancel the 2026-7 winter.

More time to drive the fun cars.