XCR1250 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Biden’s Blunder Could Send Oil Prices To $100 Editor OilPrice.com Sun, November 28, 2021, 12:00 PM Joe Biden When President Biden announced earlier this week that the federal government would be releasing 50 million barrels of crude from the strategic petroleum reserve, perhaps those around him expected prices to go down significantly and stay down. Instead, prices rose, and OPEC+ gave a heavy hint it might cut supply. By Friday, oil prices fell sharply, but that was due to a new wave of Covid-19 fears and has little if anything to do with Biden's announcement that oil would be unleashed from emergency stockpiles. But what comes next could send oil to $100. Energy analysts warned that a release of SPR may not have the desired effect. They explained that however many barrels the U.S. or its partners in Asia and the UK release, OPEC could withhold more and for longer. They explained that the SPR crude is sour, and refiners don't like it because it needs additional processing to reduce the sulfur content—a process that requires natural gas, which is also expensive currently. These explanations fell on deaf but determined ears. Now, analysts are warning about $100 Brent. "It's not going to work simply because the strategic petroleum reserve — any country's strategic petroleum reserve is not there to try to manipulate price," said Stephen Schork, editor of the Schork Report, speaking to CNBC earlier this week. "There's a considerable amount of bets out there that we will see $100 a barrel oil," he added. John Kilduff of Again Capital put it even more bluntly: "The battle lines are being drawn," he told Bloomberg this week. "Certainly, OPEC and the Saudis can win this in that they are holding all the cards. They can keep more oil off the market than a SPR release can put on the market. If you see WTI get under $70, then I would expect a response from OPEC+." What's more, the planned release of these 50 million barrels will not happen overnight. It won't happen over a week, either. In fact, the plan is, per an Argus report, to offer long-term loans of up to 32 million barrels of crude from the SPR—sour crude, at that—and to sell another 18 million barrels over several months. For starters, there is no guarantee about the degree of uptake of the oil loans. For seconds, 18 million barrels over a few months amounts to less than 1 million barrels per day on average. Meanwhile, OPEC is preparing for a worst-case scenario that involves the release of a total of 66 million barrels in January and February. The cartel itself seems to be aware that the chances of that sort of oil flood happening are next to non-existent, given the U.S. plans, but the important thing is that it is preparing. And, according to OPEC sources who spoke to Argus, while most in the extended OPEC+ group feel they don't need to tweak the original agreement of adding 400,000 bpd to daily output, there is a stipulation that allows for a three-month pause in these additions. OPEC alone accounts for 40 percent of global crude oil production. The U.S.—the world's largest single producer—accounts for about 18.6 percent. And then there's Russia, with about 12 percent of global oil supply, which is a partner of OPEC. So, together, OPEC and Russia, without even counting the Central Asian producers, account for half the world's oil production. They are, indeed, holding all the cards. Oil prices, CNBC notes in a recent report, have added about 50 percent since the start of the year as demand rebounded much more quickly and strongly than anyone seems to have expected, while supply remained tight as the industry treaded the new pandemic landscape cautiously. This week, prices fell dramatically on the news that a new variant of the coronavirus was identified in South Africa, but it is unlikely that this news will have a lasting effect. Meanwhile, true to itself, the International Energy Agency has berated OPEC for what its head, Fatih Birol, has called "artificial tightness". ″[A] factor I would like to underline that caused these high prices is the position some of the major oil and gas suppliers, and some of the countries did not take, in our view, a helpful position in this context," Birol said this week, as quoted by CNBC. "In fact, some of the key strains in today's markets may be considered as artificial tightness ... because in oil markets today we see close to 6 million barrels per day of spare production capacity lies with the key producers, OPEC+ countries," Birol added. The IEA was set up as a monitor of oil markets with the purpose of avoiding a repeat of the severe shortage that hit the West after much of the Middle East imposed an oil embargo on Israeli allies there. Since then, however, especially in recent years, the agency has focused increasingly on the green energy transition, earlier this year calling for the suspension of all new oil investment, only to urge producers a few months later to invest more in new production. OPEC+ has so far resisted all calls for more oil production. The cartel has clearly signaled that it will do what it decides and will not defend anyone else's interests. Right now, OPEC+ is interested in higher oil prices. The group seems worried about more flare-ups of Covid and has cited this risk as a demand constraint that justifies their moderate production boost. Now, on top of that worry, they have those 50 million U.S. barrels of crude coming in. The next OPEC+ meeting might bring a nasty surprise to large oil consumers, and this nasty surprise could push prices higher. By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anler Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Trump sent them to $0 https://ktla.com/news/nationworld/hundreds-of-u-s-oil-companies-could-go-bankrupts-after-oil-prices-fall-below-0-a-barrel/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angry ginger Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Anler said: Trump sent them to $0 https://ktla.com/news/nationworld/hundreds-of-u-s-oil-companies-could-go-bankrupts-after-oil-prices-fall-below-0-a-barrel/ trump did everything the greatest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angry ginger Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 the best part of anlers article. People bitch about Biden asking OPEC to open the spigots but had no issue with Trump working with them The most stunning part of the record low in oil prices is that it comes after Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to end their epic price war after President Donald Trump intervened. OPEC+ agreed to cut oil production by a record amount. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phenom Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XCR1250 Posted November 30, 2021 Author Share Posted November 30, 2021 Imagine having to shingle that roof down the road a few years. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anler Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 19 hours ago, Angry ginger said: the best part of anlers article. People bitch about Biden asking OPEC to open the spigots but had no issue with Trump working with them The most stunning part of the record low in oil prices is that it comes after Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to end their epic price war after President Donald Trump intervened. OPEC+ agreed to cut oil production by a record amount. The problem is most people are completely incapable of critical thinking. They act on emotional impulse without any discretion or critical thought. Because if people really analyzed issues critically and held the actors accountable we wouldnt have many of the problems we do. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Platinum Contributing Member Skidooski Posted November 30, 2021 Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted November 30, 2021 14 hours ago, XCR1250 said: Imagine having to shingle that roof down the road a few years. Tesla Roof! Comes with a free Starbucks gift certificate 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irv Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 14 hours ago, XCR1250 said: Imagine having to shingle that roof down the road a few years. Looks like that one in the pic is due already, or very soon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Member EvilBird Posted November 30, 2021 Gold Member Share Posted November 30, 2021 20 hours ago, Anler said: Trump sent them to $0 https://ktla.com/news/nationworld/hundreds-of-u-s-oil-companies-could-go-bankrupts-after-oil-prices-fall-below-0-a-barrel/ All that really shows is how the Covid Plandemic worked perfect to hurt yet another industry. 🤷♂️ but sure..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravy davey Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 16 hours ago, XCR1250 said: Imagine having to shingle that roof down the road a few years. Piece of cake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravy davey Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Anler said: The problem is most people are completely incapable of critical thinking. They act on emotional impulse without any discretion or critical thought. Because if people really analyzed issues critically and held the actors accountable we wouldnt have many of the problems we do. Accountability??? We don’t have any of that in the ruling class. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anler Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 hours ago, EvilBird said: All that really shows is how the Covid Plandemic worked perfect to hurt yet another industry. 🤷♂️ but sure..... No. You dont know anything about how the Saudi Russian oil war started and went down. Trump is all over it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anler Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 hour ago, gravy davey said: Accountability??? We don’t have any of that in the ruling class. Well that falls on us too. If we keep making excuses for the people you voted for who are doing the same shit as the people you dont then what do you expect to change? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Member EvilBird Posted December 1, 2021 Gold Member Share Posted December 1, 2021 4 hours ago, Anler said: Well that falls on us too. If we keep making excuses for the people you voted for who are doing the same shit as the people you dont then what do you expect to change? The ruling class are not the people you vote for genius 😂🤦♂️ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Member EvilBird Posted December 1, 2021 Gold Member Share Posted December 1, 2021 4 hours ago, Anler said: No. You dont know anything about how the Saudi Russian oil war started and went down. Trump is all over it. 👌 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anler Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 18 minutes ago, EvilBird said: The ruling class are not the people you vote for genius 😂🤦♂️ You are in contention for the dumbest mother fucker in the history of this site. And that is a real achievement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Member EvilBird Posted December 1, 2021 Gold Member Share Posted December 1, 2021 36 minutes ago, Anler said: You are in contention for the dumbest mother fucker in the history of this site. And that is a real achievement. Ok Boomer ....keep thinking your vote changes the ruling elite class ya fucking retard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Platinum Contributing Member Skidooski Posted December 1, 2021 Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted December 1, 2021 10 hours ago, EvilBird said: Ok Boomer ....keep thinking your vote changes the ruling elite class ya fucking retard. What makes you think he's a Boomer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Member EvilBird Posted December 1, 2021 Gold Member Share Posted December 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, Skidooski said: What makes you think he's a Boomer? Wild guess ...is he not? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Platinum Contributing Member Skidooski Posted December 1, 2021 Platinum Contributing Member Share Posted December 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, EvilBird said: Wild guess ...is he not? Pretty sure he's part of the best generation ever.....Gen X 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Member EvilBird Posted December 1, 2021 Gold Member Share Posted December 1, 2021 Just now, Skidooski said: Pretty sure he's part of the best generation ever.....Gen X Well there ya have it. Ive agreed with Him in the past on things actually...But I think my post went over his head and he got angry lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anler Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 3 hours ago, EvilBird said: Well there ya have it. Ive agreed with Him in the past on things actually...But I think my post went over his head and he got angry lol. Everything goes over your head, half pint Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Member EvilBird Posted December 1, 2021 Gold Member Share Posted December 1, 2021 7 hours ago, Anler said: Everything goes over your head, half pint Still butt hurt? ..its aight man have a beer and relax Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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