Vegas odds maker brexit like victory for trump

[jtssrx]

Vegas Oddsmaker Predicts Brexit-like Victory for Trump

AP

by Wayne Allyn Root7 Nov 20161,022

I’ve stuck with my prediction through thick and thin, through derision, through laughter, through polls showing Hillary leading by 13 points, through every “expert” predicting a Hillary landslide up until only two weeks ago.

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Don’t look now, but I’m about to look very smart. All the ingredients have fallen perfectly into place for “Trexit,” our own version of Brexit starring Donald Trump.

My final prediction? It’s the same one I told personally to Donald Trump a week ago. I was opening speaker at Trump’s rally in Las Vegas in front of 10,000 fans. When I saw Donald backstage I told him, “Here’s my prediction…You will win by a 10-point landslide…but Democrats cheat by 8 points…so the final official election results will show you won by 2.”

My prediction is based on three things: Brexit, Goldman Sachs and what I call the ANGRY WHITE ELECTORATE effect. Let’s start with Goldman Sachs.

It was only two weeks ago that Goldman Sachs actually felt the need to issue a report arguing this was not Brexit.

It was very clear to me at that moment, the very fact that the most powerful and politically-connected company on Wall Street felt the need to publicly debunk the Brexit angle was proof positive this was in fact Brexit.

Here’s the safest bet in life- when the powerful and connected of DC, or Wall Street, or the mainstream media, deny anything, you know it’s 100 percent true. Ask Hillary about her deleted emails, or Benghazi, or the Clinton Foundation, or whether she rigged the Democrat primary against Bernie Sanders. When they strongly deny, they always lie.

But I digress. Back to the Goldman Sachs report. Their argument two weeks ago was simple: this could not be Brexit because Brexit was closer in the polls than Trump. They claimed that Trump was losing badly.

In every poll before the shocking Brexit result, Brexit was trailing by an average of 4.4 points. But a few million white working class voters either weren’t on the pollsters radar, or weren’t talking publicly about their vote. Brexit shocked the pollsters and “experts” and won.

Skip ahead to today. Trump trails by 2, 3, or 4 in every single poll- ABC, CBS, Fox, Rasmussen, Bloomberg. The Real Clear Politics average of all polls shows Hillary leads by 2.6 points.

Hey Goldman, don’t look now, but that’s dramatically LOWER than the 4.4 point average before Brexit.

None of this takes into account the most accurate poll of 2012 that predicted Obama’s victory exactly on the number. The IBD/TIPP poll reports Trump UP by 2 points nationally as of today. The USC/LA Times poll (the only poll to factor in enthusiasm and intensity) has Trump UP by 5 points.

I’ve made two predictions since day one. First that there is a 5-point “Hidden Trump factor” missing from every poll. There is 5 percent of the population that is unwilling or embarrassed to say in public (in the face of nonstop biased-liberal media derision) that they support Trump. Add in that 5 percent and Trump wins the election, now that every poll is within 2 to 4 points. I disagreed with Goldman Sachs two weeks ago, but they are clearly dead wrong today. This is our version of Brexit.

My second prediction was that Trump would win based on the biggest turnout of white voters in history, combined with low turnout for blacks. Both patterns appear to be happening based on early voting patterns.

I wrote the book “ANGRY WHITE MALE.” I predicted the greatest turnout of angry white working class and middle class males in history. I was only partially correct. At last Sunday’s Trump rally in Las Vegas the audience was 60 percent or more white women. Trump is loved by white males, but it appears white females feel the same way. This isn’t the ANGRY WHITE MALE election. It’s the ANGRY WHITE ELECTORATE election. Both white men and women will come out in record numbers for Trump.

I have predicted from day one that black voters can’t stand Hillary and would never come out for her in the same numbers they voted for Obama. If black turnout is down substantially, Trump wins. Its all about turnout, which is precisely why the USC/LA times poll shows Trump up by 5 points.

Now we come to the electoral college. Elections aren’t won by popular vote. They are won state by state. If Trump wins Ohio, Florida and North Carolina, it’s over for Democrats. It’s that simple. Trump is winning or within 1 point in all three crucial battleground states.

But Trump is also winning, tied or very close in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico. Mitt Romney lost all of those states. Trump could win all of them. But if he wins only half, plus Ohio and either Florida or North Carolina, he’s the President of the United States.

The best sign of all that Trump is on his way to a Brexit victory is the mock presidential election in Minnesota- one of our five most ultra-liberal states. High school kids across the state gave Trump a 34-32 victory a few days ago. In Minnesota!

Something special and shocking is happening folks. The mainstream media, Democrats, government and mainstream media haven’t a clue what’s about to hit them.

I call it Trexit.

My final prediction: Trump wins by 10, Democrats cheat by 8, he wins by 2.

[spin_dry]

hope is a good thing

[motonoggin]

It's very possible. Democrats are definitely out of touch with what's happening in America right now.

Just like Republicans were in 2006. 

[spin_dry]

3 minutes ago, motonoggin said:

It's very possible. Democrats are definitely out of touch with what's happening in America right now.

Just like Republicans were in 2006. 

There's a secret part of me that hopes he gets in. We'll get to see America great again.....

[Momorider]

[Edmo]

6 hours ago, spin_dry said:

There's a secret part of me that hopes he gets in. We'll get to see America great again.....

Of course you do. Who wants 8 more years of this BS. Hillary is like an old stinky worn out pair of shoes in the back of the closet. Throw them away I say!

[XCR1250]

Wife and I went on a couple 100 mile road trip last Friday, we saw 100's of Trump signs and 2 Hillary, very odd we thought.

[Mainecat]

There is no money on that bet.

[spin_dry]

2 hours ago, Edmo said:

Of course you do. Who wants 8 more years of this BS. Hillary is like an old stinky worn out pair of shoes in the back of the closet. Throw them away I say!

go trump. go trump. go trump. 

[Highmark]

Best line of the article.  

When they strongly deny, they always lie.

[Mileage Psycho]

The book has a Trump payout of over 3-1, figure those guys are paying half and it could be 6-1. In any event if I thought Trump was going to win I'd throw down a g-note and go for the $3,250.00 payout.

https://sports.bovada.lv/politics

[Highmark]

If there ever was an election where the polls might not tell the whole story its this one.  

They don't take into consideration turnout.   Typical GOP voters are coming back in droves.   AA voters not so much.

MM made a good point.   This doesn't show up in the polls.  

The Jesse Ventura Effect. Finally, do not discount the electorate’s ability to be mischievous or underestimate how any millions fancy themselves as closet anarchists once they draw the curtain and are all alone in the voting booth. It’s one of the few places left in society where there are no security cameras, no listening devices, no spouses, no kids, no boss, no cops, there’s not even a friggin’ time limit. You can take as long as you need in there and no one can make you do anything. You can push the button and vote a straight party line, or you can write in Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck. There are no rules. And because of that, and the anger that so many have toward a broken political system, millions are going to vote for Trump not because they agree with him, not because they like his bigotry or ego, but just because they can. Just because it will upset the apple cart and make mommy and daddy mad. And in the same way like when you’re standing on the edge of Niagara Falls and your mind wonders for a moment what would that feel like to go over that thing, a lot of people are going to love being in the position of puppetmaster and plunking down for Trump just to see what that might look like. Remember back in the ‘90s when the people of Minnesota elected a professional wrestler as their governor? They didn’t do this because they’re stupid or thought that Jesse Ventura was some sort of statesman or political intellectual. They did so just because they could. Minnesota is one of the smartest states in the country. It is also filled with people who have a dark sense of humor — and voting for Ventura was their version of a good practical joke on a sick political system. This is going to happen again with Trump.

http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/

Edited November 8, 2016 by Highmark

[SnowRider]

4 minutes ago, Highmark said:

If there ever was an election where the polls might not tell the whole story its this one.  

They don't take into consideration turnout.   Typical GOP voters are coming back in droves.   AA voters not so much.

It's all taken into account with early voters and polling. 

[Zambroski]

[revkevsdi]

They predicted a 10-15% stock market drop in Europe if Trump won. 

So that would be like Brexit.

[f7ben]

4 minutes ago, revkevsdi said:

They predicted a 10-15% stock market drop in Europe if Trump won. 

So that would be like Brexit.

Again ....corrupt institutions like continuation of systemic corruption. Any person with a brain should take that simple fact and oppose Clinton with all they have.

[ArcticCrusher]

6 minutes ago, revkevsdi said:

They predicted a 10-15% stock market drop in Europe if Trump won. 

So that would be like Brexit.

 

Yup some are ready for it if it happens.

[ICEMAN!]

Cute theory, but I predict a major FAIL

[Mainecat]

-451 for Clinton vegas

http://www.presidentialelectionodds.net/states/

Edited November 9, 2016 by Mainecat

[Ebsell]

Hell who would have thought America would have to choose between these too fucks. So anything is possible 

[f7ben]

1 hour ago, ICEMAN! said:

Cute theory, but I predict a major FAIL

well we knew it was going to be Hillary ....I mean the whole corrupt system subverted the primary process to put her in place

[ICEMAN!]

49 minutes ago, f7ben said:

well we knew it was going to be Hillary ....I mean the whole corrupt system subverted the primary process to put her in place

And the Republicans aren't part of this "corrupt system?"

[f7ben]

2 minutes ago, ICEMAN! said:

And the Republicans aren't part of this "corrupt system?"

absolutely they are .....it just hasnt been substantiated to the extent that we saw the dems exposed. Also if you would pay attention you would realize that if there was any subversion it was working against Trump in his own party. The Dems completely fucked over half their base and what could have been a decent candidate

[Zambroski]

1 minute ago, f7ben said:

absolutely they are .....it just hasnt been substantiated to the extent that we saw the dems exposed. Also if you would pay attention you would realize that if there was any subversion it was working against Trump in his own party. The Dems completely fucked over half their base and what could have been a decent candidate

[ICEMAN!]

25 minutes ago, f7ben said:

absolutely they are .....it just hasnt been substantiated to the extent that we saw the dems exposed. Also if you would pay attention you would realize that if there was any subversion it was working against Trump in his own party. The Dems completely fucked over half their base and what could have been a decent candidate

lol