DOW 30,000

[Snake]

[Snake]

Paul Krugman: The Economic Fallout

By Paul Krugman

Comment 2016-11-09T00:42:44-05:00 12:42 AM ET

It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover?

Frankly, I find it hard to care much, even though this is my specialty. The disaster for America and the world has so many aspects that the economic ramifications are way down my list of things to fear.

Still, I guess people want an answer: If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.

Under any circumstances, putting an irresponsible, ignorant man who takes his advice from all the wrong people in charge of the nation with the world’s most important economy would be very bad news. What makes it especially bad right now, however, is the fundamentally fragile state much of the world is still in, eight years after the great financial crisis.

It’s true that we’ve been adding jobs at a pretty good pace and are quite close to full employment. But we’ve been doing O.K. only thanks to extremely low interest rates. There’s nothing wrong with that per se. But what if something bad happens and the economy needs a boost? The Fed and its counterparts abroad basically have very little room for further rate cuts, and therefore very little ability to respond to adverse events.

Now comes the mother of all adverse effects — and what it brings with it is a regime that will be ignorant of economic policy and hostile to any effort to make it work. Effective fiscal support for the Fed? Not a chance. In fact, you can bet that the Fed will lose its independence, and be bullied by cranks.

So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened.

[jtssrx]

4 minutes ago, Snake said:

Paul Krugman: The Economic Fallout

By Paul Krugman

Comment 2016-11-09T00:42:44-05:00 12:42 AM ET

It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover?

Frankly, I find it hard to care much, even though this is my specialty. The disaster for America and the world has so many aspects that the economic ramifications are way down my list of things to fear.

Still, I guess people want an answer: If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.

Under any circumstances, putting an irresponsible, ignorant man who takes his advice from all the wrong people in charge of the nation with the world’s most important economy would be very bad news. What makes it especially bad right now, however, is the fundamentally fragile state much of the world is still in, eight years after the great financial crisis.

It’s true that we’ve been adding jobs at a pretty good pace and are quite close to full employment. But we’ve been doing O.K. only thanks to extremely low interest rates. There’s nothing wrong with that per se. But what if something bad happens and the economy needs a boost? The Fed and its counterparts abroad basically have very little room for further rate cuts, and therefore very little ability to respond to adverse events.

Now comes the mother of all adverse effects — and what it brings with it is a regime that will be ignorant of economic policy and hostile to any effort to make it work. Effective fiscal support for the Fed? Not a chance. In fact, you can bet that the Fed will lose its independence, and be bullied by cranks.

So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened.

The MC's of the world loved this until it didn't come true

[teamgreen02]

42 minutes ago, Snake said:

Paul Krugman: The Economic Fallout

By Paul Krugman

Comment 2016-11-09T00:42:44-05:00 12:42 AM ET

It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover?

Frankly, I find it hard to care much, even though this is my specialty. The disaster for America and the world has so many aspects that the economic ramifications are way down my list of things to fear.

Still, I guess people want an answer: If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.

Under any circumstances, putting an irresponsible, ignorant man who takes his advice from all the wrong people in charge of the nation with the world’s most important economy would be very bad news. What makes it especially bad right now, however, is the fundamentally fragile state much of the world is still in, eight years after the great financial crisis.

It’s true that we’ve been adding jobs at a pretty good pace and are quite close to full employment. But we’ve been doing O.K. only thanks to extremely low interest rates. There’s nothing wrong with that per se. But what if something bad happens and the economy needs a boost? The Fed and its counterparts abroad basically have very little room for further rate cuts, and therefore very little ability to respond to adverse events.

Now comes the mother of all adverse effects — and what it brings with it is a regime that will be ignorant of economic policy and hostile to any effort to make it work. Effective fiscal support for the Fed? Not a chance. In fact, you can bet that the Fed will lose its independence, and be bullied by cranks.

So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened.

I love this article and point it out often.  Nobel prize winning economist.  

[Zambroski]

1 hour ago, teamgreen02 said:

I love this article and point it out often.  Nobel prize winning economist.  

To be fair, we all know the Nobel prize now means absolutely nothing.

[Edmo]

Always someone pushing doom and gloom. And it seems it’s always BS. Ignore the noise.

[teamgreen02]

5 minutes ago, Zambroski said:

To be fair, we all know the Nobel prize now means absolutely nothing.

That's fine, they will quickly revert back to proving their intelligence and superiority with their PhD or MS degrees.

Your just uneducated!!!

[ArcticCrusher]

8 minutes ago, Edmo said:

Always someone pushing doom and gloom. And it seems it’s always BS. Ignore the noise.

How do you think those following that strategy fared over the past decade?

Yah.

[teamgreen02]

4 minutes ago, ArcticCrusher said:

How do you think those following that strategy fared over the past decade?

 Yah.

[Pete]

1 hour ago, Zambroski said:

To be fair, we all know the Nobel prize now means absolutely nothing.

It hasn’t meant jack shit since the Kenyan was awarded it.. for doing nothing 

[Edmo]

1 hour ago, teamgreen02 said:

Poor kids will end up with yuge student loans because their dad was suffering from the TDS.  

[ArcticCrusher]

1 hour ago, teamgreen02 said:

Yup.

 

[Guest]

The market is UP today, and I'm DOWN about 4 Gs !! Holy shit!!

I had to take some required IRA withdrawals, but after the beginning of the year, I'm gonna' sell a lot of marginal stocks. 

Even though I've made some money, I still hate the market volatility. 

Especially, with Trump. 

Predictions are for a 20% drop in 2020.

[revkevsdi]

4 hours ago, Snake said:

Is Dow 30,000 a prediction? Just wanted some clarification since it's about 361 days late for the last time the brain trust "wouldn't have been surprised at a 30,000 dow."

 

[ArcticCrusher]

13 minutes ago, Polaris 550 said:

The market is UP today, and I'm DOWN about 4 Gs !! Holy shit!!

I had to take some required IRA withdrawals, but after the beginning of the year, I'm gonna' sell a lot of marginal stocks. 

Even though I've made some money, I still hate the market volatility. 

Especially, with Trump. 

Predictions are for a 20% drop in 2020.

No there isn't a 20% consensus drop forecasted next year.  Volatility goes hand and hand.

I don't bother with individual stocks anymore unless I'm speculating and I haven't done that in over 20years.  Find good managed investments and go cruise control.

Edited December 26, 2019 by ArcticCrusher

[Snake]

7 minutes ago, revkevsdi said:

Is Dow 30,000 a prediction? Just wanted some clarification since it's about 361 days late for the last time the brain trust "wouldn't have been surprised at a 30,000 dow."

 

If the DOW breaks 30,000.... you give me $100.

If it doesn't..... I give cfk $5.

[revkevsdi]

5 minutes ago, Snake said:

If the DOW breaks 30,000.... you give me $100.

If it doesn't..... I give cfk $5.

No thanks.  

You're such a chickenshit, you don't even mention a timeline.  

I do believe you only have $5.00 to risk on any bet. 

 

[Snake]

10 minutes ago, revkevsdi said:

No thanks.  

You're such a chickenshit, you don't even mention a timeline.  

I do believe you only have $5.00 to risk on any bet. 

 

Thank you for seeing the absurdity of it.

[DriftBusta]

Go Trump

[steve from amherst]

11 minutes ago, Snake said:

Thank you for seeing the absurdity of it.

Well played

[Guest]

32 minutes ago, ArcticCrusher said:

No there isn't a 20% consensus drop forecasted next year.  Volatility goes hand and hand.

I don't bother with individual stocks anymore unless I'm speculating and I haven't done that in over 20years.  Find good managed investments and go cruise control.

Yeah, maybe I'll set up an appointment with my account person, and re-do my entire portfolio. 

I'm too old for the volatility. 72 1/2. 

[ArcticCrusher]

11 minutes ago, Polaris 550 said:

Yeah, maybe I'll set up an appointment with my account person, and re-do my entire portfolio. 

I'm too old for the volatility. 72 1/2. 

Take a hard look at the private market then, but your DD needs to be alert.  Investments like these is where some advisers are currently putting their high net worth clients money, that is if their firms are setup to sell, so be very careful.

 

 

http://www.hgcinvest.com/funds/

https://www.bridgingfinance.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Bridging-Income-Fund-LP_Class-F-Fact-Sheet.pdf

 

 

 

[ArcticCrusher]

 

Ftr, for the majority of the past decade investor sentiment was not upbeat.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-the-2010s-when-no-one-took-the-bull-by-the-horns/

 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, ArcticCrusher said:

Take a hard look at the private market then, but your DD needs to be alert.  Investments like these is where some advisers are currently putting their high net worth clients money, that is if their firms are setup to sell, so be very careful.

 

 

http://www.hgcinvest.com/funds/

https://www.bridgingfinance.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Bridging-Income-Fund-LP_Class-F-Fact-Sheet.pdf

 

 

 

Wow, that sounds scary!!!!  

I'm taking another chance. I'm waitin' on this China trade deal. If it goes through, the market will bump up, for a while. Then I'm gonna' bail...…………………...BIGLY!!!!  

[The One]

9 minutes ago, Polaris 550 said:

Wow, that sounds scary!!!!  

I'm taking another chance. I'm waitin' on this China trade deal. If it goes through, the market will bump up, for a while. Then I'm gonna' bail...…………………...BIGLY!!!!  

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