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Top farmer warns forces at work to hide crop losses.


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39 minutes ago, NaturallyAspirated said:

If next year has a normal spring our numbers will most likely be record breaking again.  

Something else to think about.

Corn acres were down about -1% from 2018, soybeans -15%, prevent plant acres went up some 900+%. 

If next year our prevent plant acres goes back to 1.8-2m acres (2018 levels) we will have by far the most acres ever planted for corn and beans.

To me it looks like we may have crop glut next year and continued low crop prices.

Neal

Are these national numbers? 

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10 minutes ago, NaturallyAspirated said:

Acres that are unable to be planted by the date of the crop insurance policy.

The acres are prevented from being planted due to nature issues, flood, drought, ect.

Neal

We had a lot of that locally this growing season. 

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26 minutes ago, bussman said:

We had a lot of that locally this growing season. 

We saw a lot too.  We also knew that it wasn't just a local thing.

I do remember when the July reports came out with rough estimates of acres planted.  It seemed difficult to believe the numbers were that high.  We knew that the area of late or no planting was quite widespread.  It left everyone wondering where the crops were so good to make up the difference.  BTW, that estimate in July killed the markets quick.

I'm not a doom and gloom guy like the video.  I do wonder what is going on though.

The LP shortage also leaves you wondering.  It was a pretty big deal.  The odd part to that shortage is that it appears the normal supply chains were choked.  Why?

It will be interesting to see where grain supplies are sitting late winter.  Basis numbers stayed high into the harvest.  I don't recall that happening in the past.

I'm also curious to see how the Canadian numbers play out.  Obviously, there are less acres.  The losses appear to be high as a percent of potential.  That can be a really big deal for a more limited market.

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1 hour ago, favoritos said:

We saw a lot too.  We also knew that it wasn't just a local thing.

I do remember when the July reports came out with rough estimates of acres planted.  It seemed difficult to believe the numbers were that high.  We knew that the area of late or no planting was quite widespread.  It left everyone wondering where the crops were so good to make up the difference.  BTW, that estimate in July killed the markets quick.

I'm not a doom and gloom guy like the video.  I do wonder what is going on though.

The LP shortage also leaves you wondering.  It was a pretty big deal.  The odd part to that shortage is that it appears the normal supply chains were choked.  Why?

It will be interesting to see where grain supplies are sitting late winter.  Basis numbers stayed high into the harvest.  I don't recall that happening in the past.

I'm also curious to see how the Canadian numbers play out.  Obviously, there are less acres.  The losses appear to be high as a percent of potential.  That can be a really big deal for a more limited market.

Everything I've heard is that it isn't a shortage but a logistics of getting it from distribution centers to consumers.

I heard of coops in South Dakota going all the way to Georgia to contract tankers to bring up Kansas LP.

Neal

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3 hours ago, Woodtick said:

I have 40 of these in one building under a service contract. 

BDF79BF0-0158-4F06-9AA9-6D0CCC94A709.jpeg

 

Doing our third spiral freezer belt upgrade for a food customer later in the week, taking advantage of the holiday downtime.  Was told just the belt is over 250K.  

Trump economy at work.  Entire bakery upgrade is next.

 

 

 

image.thumb.png.8d7bff97c450aa60113c7a9fea0cc7a2.png

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5 hours ago, 168hp CAT 800 said:

Need to increase the ethanol mandate 

 

5 hours ago, NaturallyAspirated said:

Absolutely.

Neal

Honestly I don't think just that is the best solution as it causes pressure on everything else corn related.   On top of that it simply invites what causes low corn prices in the first place.   Overproduction.   Not to mention corp money hoarding up the land as well.  

Reality is both low prices and high prices do that with some commodities.   Its an odd double edge sword.  

Very successful farmer I spoke with a few weeks ago thinks $4.50 is the right sweet spot.

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