'PEOPLE ARE GETTING SCARED' FARMERS FACE PLUNGING MARKETS WITH NO END IN SIGHT

[Mileage Psycho]

Goddamn, the hit farmers are taking on beans and corn is crazy.

Quote

 

'PEOPLE ARE GETTING SCARED' FARMERS FACE PLUNGING MARKETS WITH NO END IN SIGHT

May 22, 2019 at 9:52 am | By AUSTIN MONTGOMERY Staff writer

JANESVILLE - The fallout of the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China is having an impact on farmers across the country, including here in Rock County as a cloud of uncertainty from retaliatory tariffs weighs down crop prices.

"The atmosphere from everyone I've talked to is that there are a lot of people who are just getting scared," said Doug Rebout, a Janesville farmer and president of the Wisconsin Corn Growers Association. "The uncertainty of not knowing what is going to happen is the worst part."

Added to the uncertainty is the difficult run of weather during this wet spring, which has delayed farming operations and could adversely impact yields, lowering the volume of crops farmers have to sell.

Rebout oversees operations at Roger Rebout & Sons Farm, with the farm home to 2,500 acres of corn, 1,300 acres of soybeans and around 350 dairy cows and beef cattle.

According to a report by the Brookings Institution, rural areas and smaller communities have been most impacted by the retaliatory tariffs from China and other countries.

All the uncertainty has stunted crop prices.

As of 7 a.m. on Wednesday, corn is worth $3.90 per bushel compared to a market year average of $6.89 in 2012. Soybeans haven't fared well either, with a bushel of soybeans worth $8.25 as of 7 a.m. Wednesday compared to a market year average of $14.40 in 2012. Earlier this month, Rebout said he's been worried by corn prices ($3.61/bushel on May 9) compared to the cost of cultivating a bushel ($3.85) on his farm.

Last year, as part of subsidies approved by President Donald Trump, the administration paid $1.65 per bushel for soybeans and 1 cent per bushel for corn. According to an article published Tuesday by Bloomberg in which unnamed sources were cited, the Trump administration is considering a second round of aid payments to farmers that could be announced as soon as tomorrow, the article said. According to sources cited in the article, the plan could cost $15 billion and include among other payments $2 per bushel for soybeans.

"Farms try to build up equity, and right now that's getting eaten away because of these low prices," Rebout said. "If this was a short-term thing, then you can deal with it. We are used to dealing with unpredictable markets and weather. We are sitting here - in the second year of this - not seeing much of an end to it because they are always looking at more tariffs. If you could see an end to it, we'd be fine with it. A lot of people aren't seeing an end to it and it's getting very concerning."

Although every farm is different, Rebout said he believed the impact felt by farmers could be seen across the state.

"We are proud of the fact that we can feed the world, but if we can't get that product out to the world what good is it?" Rebout said. "At the end of the day we are a business. As farmers, we've become good about re-investing. We put the money back out into our communities and it's not just us it's hurting. It's hurting our communities."

As president of the Wisconsin Corn Growers Association, Rebout is set to travel to Washington, D.C. in July to voice concerns facing Wisconsin farmers alongside other association members. Rebout said he's worried about what would happen to U.S. trade relationships if the international tit-for-tat continues.

"When we talk about trade, one thing as farmers we try to stress is we have worked many years to build up these trade relations with other countries," Rebout said. "As farmers, we have invested a lot of money in building those relationships. The longer these trade talks go on, and China starts buying from other countries, even if we get a trade deal worked out, they aren't just going to flip and come back to us. So we've potentially lost those markets and we might have to start at ground zero again."

Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., said she supported "getting tough on China" through a bill with Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., that would look to enforce fair trade policies against China.

"President Trump's trade war with China is hurting Wisconsin's economy," Baldwin said. "In particular, China has imposed tariffs on Wisconsin dairy, cranberries and ginseng that have hurt our agriculture economy at a particularly tough time. The fact is the President hasn't delivered results for farmers. He hasn't produced better trade deals, he has only produced trade wars that have hurt our farmers. Our farmers need a better trade deal with China, not a trade war."

In a statement, Sen. Ron Johnson said he was "well aware of the short-term pain being experienced by Wisconsin farmers and Wisconsin manufacturers." In the past Johnson, R-Wis., has been critical of trade policies of the Trump administration, but said he was "painfully aware of how China has abused the world trading system."

"I've been pretty amazed at how patient farmers and manufacturers have been in terms of supporting the president in trying to accomplish his goal of getting China to stop stealing our stuff, and also start complying with World Trade Organization rules," Johnson said. "...I'm keeping my fingers crossed that China will realize it's in their best interest to start behaving when it comes to the world trading organizations."

Rep. Mark Pocan, D-Madison, could not be reached for comment Tuesday. In an op-ed published in the Wisconsin State Journal on May 17, Pocan said the he felt targeted tariffs were always an option, "but in the case of President Trump's trade war with China, it's clear his administration has no coherent policy."

"Rather than an ineffective bailout program, what Wisconsin farmers really need is the president to end his trade war and work with Democrats on a real trade policy and efforts to strengthen the rural economy," Pocan wrote. "While the president has claimed that the trade war is meant to help American workers, the effects show that it is just the latest attack on the very Americans he claims to support. The president must do better for rural communities and should work to develop a trade agenda that will truly support our farmers and our workers, not create long-lasting, irreversible damage."

https://www.beloitdailynews.com/front_page_slider/20190522/people_are_getting_scaredfarmers_face_plunging_markets_with_no_end_in_sight

 

 

[Zambroski]

This sounds like a Kamala rally speech.  I just feel sorry for her now.

[favoritos]

I've been saying this for awhile.

Wait till this weather related stuff plays into the mix.  It is going to be a challenge for many to make it through.

Spend some time with the city folks though, and everything is fine.

[Zambroski]

This nation is fantastic.  What half of us should do is resist our country’s urge to make itself better and protect its citizens and therefore, allow our opposition to see our divide and become stronger as they play that side.

FUCK AMERICA!!!!!

[racer254]

Funny, but the farmers I have talked to are more worried about the wet weather and really don't say much at all about the tariffs.  And they all have been praising trump.

[Mainecat]

Many farmers have spent years marketing their products overseas. Trump is a asshole.

[NaturallyAspirated]

9 minutes ago, racer254 said:

Funny, but the farmers I have talked to are more worried about the wet weather and really don't say much at all about the tariffs.  And they all have been praising trump.

You must not talk to many...

Trump is not popular among many farmers in my area.  He has massively fucked up the trade system.  He was clearly unprepared for the shit he spouted.

Neal

[Zambroski]

Weird, I’ve talked to many farmers over the last few months and they are huge Trump supporters.

Well, I really didn’t but, this statement holds just as much credibility as many others in here.

[racer254]

5 minutes ago, NaturallyAspirated said:

You must not talk to many...

Trump is not popular among many farmers in my area.  He has massively fucked up the trade system.  He was clearly unprepared for the shit he spouted.

Neal

I happen to talk to a lot around my area, even know a few seed salesmen.  Trump is VERY popular among the ones I talk to.

[Jimmy Snacks]

32 minutes ago, Zambroski said:

This sounds like a Kamala rally speech.  I just feel sorry for her now.

 

26 minutes ago, Zambroski said:

This nation is fantastic.  What half of us should do is resist our country’s urge to make itself better and protect its citizens and therefore, allow our opposition to see our divide and become stronger as they play that side.

FUCK AMERICA!!!!!

 

18 minutes ago, racer254 said:

Funny, but the farmers I have talked to are more worried about the wet weather and really don't say much at all about the tariffs.  And they all have been praising trump.

 

4 minutes ago, Zambroski said:

Weird, I’ve talked to many farmers over the last few months and they are huge Trump supporters.

Well, I really didn’t but, this statement holds just as much credibility as many others in here.

 

1 minute ago, racer254 said:

I happen to talk to a lot around my area, even know a few seed salesmen.  Trump is VERY popular among the ones I talk to.

Damn...first it was EZanal and Fordy now add Racer to the mix....Zdipshit sure aligns himself with some real brainpower!!!!!!!!!  

[Jimmy Snacks]

32 minutes ago, favoritos said:

I've been saying this for awhile.

Wait till this weather related stuff plays into the mix.  It is going to be a challenge for many to make it through.

Spend some time with the city folks though, and everything is fine.

 

10 minutes ago, NaturallyAspirated said:

You must not talk to many...

Trump is not popular among many farmers in my area.  He has massively fucked up the trade system.  He was clearly unprepared for the shit he spouted.

Neal

Not good but his blather and bullshit appeals to the ignorant....just look around here. 

[Zambroski]

Just now, Jimmy Snacks said:

 

 

 

 

Damn...first it was EZanal and Fordy now add Racer to the mix....Zdipshit sure aligns himself with some real brainpower!!!!!!!!!  

Dude....you’ve admitted you can’t understand my basic, one paragraph posts.  “College”.

[ArcticCrusher]

4 minutes ago, racer254 said:

I happen to talk to a lot around my area, even know a few seed salesmen.  Trump is VERY popular among the ones I talk to.

???

Unless they are doing specialty farming anyone who exports is likely not happy. 

[f7ben]

Fuck anyone who depends on hostile trade terrorists to make their money

[favoritos]

There are definitely two sides on the trump love in farm country.

Talk to a farmer that understands how long it takes to build a market and delivery stream.  They might not talk about who they love or hate.  Business is business to them.  Facts are the reality that pays the bills.

There is a strong support camp in farm country too.  They do love to talk about their love.  That is the reason you will hear more.  They are doing the talking.

[Guest]

Trump is trying to do TOO MUCH--TOO FAST!!! If he had just quietly gone about with trade negotiations with China, that would be one thing. But NOOO, he has to be loud and boisterous about it, 24/7. 

Trump doesn't realize these world leaders are not his hotel workers, and laborers that he can dominate and abuse. 

I am so fukken sick of this bullshit. 

[Zambroski]

4 minutes ago, Polaris 550 said:

Trump is trying to do TOO MUCH--TOO FAST!!! If he had just quietly gone about with trade negotiations with China, that would be one thing. But NOOO, he has to be loud and boisterous about it, 24/7. 

Trump doesn't realize these world leaders are not his hotel workers, and laborers that he can dominate and abuse. 

I am so fukken sick of this bullshit. 

“Going about [trade] business quietly” is why we are where we are now.  Trump realizes these people are bullies and have been bullies.  He’s doing the same.  If you aren’t backing this, you are helping China and well...(insert Benny quote here).  But I actually mean it.

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, Zambroski said:

“Going about [trade] business quietly” is why we are where we are now.  Trump realizes these people are bullies and have been bullies.  He’s doing the same.  If you aren’t backing this, you are helping China and well...(insert Benny quote here).  But I actually mean it.

Oh, I agree on Trump getting a trade deal. I just don't agree on how he goes about it. The Chinese monitor every word he says, and he is trying to be the ALPHA MALE with them, and it's not working. 

He should be MORE DIPLOMATIC with the Chinese. Negotiate the deal, but do it quietly, not on TV.

Trump has brought 90% of his trouble onto himself, with his ego. Just my .02c.  

[hayward]

Corn here today is $4.35 delivered to the mill.  Not enough by a long shot, but higher than it's been in a long while.

Beans on the other hand, well, they suck. 

[Highmark]

1 hour ago, Mileage Psycho said:

Goddamn, the hit farmers are taking on beans and corn is crazy.

 

Corn and bean prices sucked long before these tariffs were put in place.

Ag is its own worse enemy and the govt subsidies only make it worse.  Guarantee them a price for little cost which causes them to produce at maximum quantities all the time.  I could run my factory 3 shifts vs 1 and triple my output yet what happens if I can't sell the product?  Ag is no longer a profit % business but a produce as much as I can to increase income even at a very low margin.   The natural cycle is killing itself.   How much you make is based on how much you produce but that simply drives prices down even further.

Generally speaking most acres in my area are owned by large family farms.   And while things are tough most are diversified enough in livestock where they are doing pretty good.  Couple of the really large ones sell little to any corn and beans.   Its all used for feed for their livestock. 

Just had beers with a guy last night who is a Sr. manager at a very large family hog operation in southern Iowa and they are absolutely KILLING it right now and expect prices to continue to climb to beyond record levels with China's pork industry in so much trouble.   Personally I think Trump should use that as a means of negotiation.   They won't be able to feed themselves with the rate things are going.  If that African swine flu gets in the US shit is gonna hit the fan.   Guy said its 100% fatal for hogs.   Nothing you can do to save them.   They actually cancelled the international pork expo to take every precaution they can to stop it from getting into the US.   

Beef and poultry prices will rise because the Chinese will use that to offset its loss in protein consumption.   

[teamgreen02]

Here is the last 5 years of corn prices.  They aren't going back up to $8/bushel like they were in 2012.  Corn went down to almost $3 when Obama was in charge and Hillary was leading all the polls.

The problem this year is actually getting the corn in the ground.  It has been too wet and cool this spring in the midwest.

Yup, all Trump's fault.

[Highmark]

Got to love how the article uses record prices of 2012 as a comparison.    

[Zambroski]

5 minutes ago, Highmark said:

Got to love how the article uses record prices of 2012 as a comparison.    

I noticed that too but, meh....doesn’t matter.  Vince is CONVINCED!!!

[f7ben]

Holy fucking shit 

Vince got .....

 

 

[Highmark]

Very simple.   We haven't found enough markets for the gains in crop production.   We are producing 3x's as much per acre as we were just 50 years ago.

Edited May 23, 2019 by Highmark