Not that republicans here care, but what happens to the tariff tax money that we are paying?

[xtralettucetomatoe580]

1 hour ago, ICEMAN! said:

Maybe, but it’s not going to happen that fast and the tariffs aren’t going to last that long in order to force a change like that. 

And why wouldn’t they last? It would fuck their economy with a rake. They know they are pinned in a corner and their teeth aren’t that sharp. 

[ICEMAN!]

5 minutes ago, xtralettucetomatoe580 said:

And why wouldn’t they last? It would fuck their economy with a rake. They know they are pinned in a corner and their teeth aren’t that sharp. 

They won’t last once Americans start losing their jobs

[xtralettucetomatoe580]

1 minute ago, ICEMAN! said:

They won’t last once Americans start losing their jobs

The timeline for it to hit our jobs is a hell of a lot longer than the timeline for it to hit their jobs and economy. The vast majority of it being on our farmers. Little bit of farmer assistance and some higher prices for crops is literally the only real outcome for us. We don’t manufacture going that way. The big downside is the market will take it in the shorts. That’s not the end of the world. 

[spin_dry]

7 hours ago, xtralettucetomatoe580 said:

The funny thing about us tariffing $250B now is they can’t match that since they don’t import enough US goods... It will be interesting to see if the China acquires US interests in China. That would up the ante. I have a feeling this all has to do with NK. The one good thing Trump truly had was the market and economy. The market is not pleased. I bet we get big news from NK that is in our favor followed by the tariffs going away. 

China exports 19% of their stuff here. A big chunk for sure. A lot of the goods coming to America from China would be political suicide to slap on a tariff. Tv’s, cell phones, other electronics. Those items are clearly high value items that if attacked with tariffs would hurt both American business and create a shit storm for the administration. So the amount of goods that are open to tariffs is limited for political reasons. I’d love to see trump and the republicans push for tariffs on the “Best Buy” goods. It would certainly mean their quick demise.  Democrats would beat trump and the GOP senseless with higher prices. China also has over $30 billion dollars of tourism coming to America. It’s estimatrd to hit $40 billion this year. The Chinese government could shut that down in a week. The Chinese are far more loyal to their government than Americans. The government in China has been grooming the citizenry to move more in an anti-American direction. If they have to go without their soybean oil, they will. Americans give up their cell phones?  

I’d say China is sitting in a pretty good spot to weather a trade war. 

[xtralettucetomatoe580]

3 minutes ago, spin_dry said:

China exports 19% of their stuff here. A big chunk for sure. A lot of the goods coming to America from China would be political suicide to slap on a tariff. Tv’s, cell phones, other electronics. Those items are clearly high value items that if attacked with tariffs would hurt both American business and create a shit storm for the administration. So the amount of goods that are open to tariffs is limited for political reasons. I’d love to see trump and the republicans push for tariffs on the “Best Buy” goods. It would certainly mean their quick demise.  Democrats would beat trump and the GOP senseless with higher prices. China also has over $30 billion dollars of tourism coming to America. It’s estimatrd to hit $40 billion this year. The Chinese government could shut that down in a week. The Chinese are far more loyal to their government than Americans. The government in China has been grooming the citizenry to move more in an anti-American direction. If they have to go without their soybean oil, they will. Americans give up their cell phones?  

I’d say China is sitting in a pretty good spot to weather a trade war. 

That’s the point. $250B in tariffs and we won’t even hit on big time consumer goods. No iphones, TVs, clothes, etc. The way it is structured now just fucking sucks for China. The higher costs (tariffed goods) will be spread across components and materials. It will raise the COGs sold here over the long run, but it’s pretty clear it would cripple China in the meantime. For us? A couple percent increase for costs in a few sectors... Psh. I truly think you underestimate our resilience and overestimate their strength. We are about to fuck start 1/5 of their economy that is built on currency manipulation and propped up sectors. And to even further the fisting, the price of our dollar will drop most likely making our exports look more appealing to other countries. I bet China is shitting themselves. Trump has to contend with higher prices, China has to contend with their economy collapsing... This won’t last a month. Bet he gets exactly what he wants. 

[spin_dry]

11 minutes ago, xtralettucetomatoe580 said:

That’s the point. $250B in tariffs and we won’t even hit on big time consumer goods. No iphones, TVs, clothes, etc. The way it is structured now just fucking sucks for China. The higher costs (tariffed goods) will be spread across components and materials. It will raise the COGs sold here over the long run, but it’s pretty clear it would cripple China in the meantime. For us? A couple percent increase for costs in a few sectors... Psh. I truly think you underestimate our resilience and overestimate their strength. We are about to fuck start 1/5 of their economy that is built on currency manipulation and propped up sectors. And to even further the fisting, the price of our dollar will drop most likely making our exports look more appealing to other countries. I bet China is shitting themselves. Trump has to contend with higher prices, China has to contend with their economy collapsing... This won’t last a month. Bet he gets exactly what he wants. 

Chinese leaders don’t have to concern themselves with reelection. They also have a very compliant citizenry. They’ve also targeted their tariffs to effect trump’s main voting blocks/states. The Chinese have been at this for several thousand years. A couple more years and trump faces re-election. That’s a blink of an eye to them. The Chinese aren’t going to back down. 

Edited June 20, 2018 by spin_dry

[Anler]

Give it to the military, duh...

[xtralettucetomatoe580]

4 minutes ago, spin_dry said:

Chinese leaders don’t have to concern themselves with reelection. They also have a very compliant citizenry. They’ve also targeted their tariffs to effect trump’s main voting blocks/states. The Chinese have been at this for several thousand years. A couple more years and trump faces re-election. That’s a blink of an eye to them. 

Don’t be crazy. China maintains its status quo for one reason and one reason alone. Growth. Threaten that, say goodbye to compliant citizenship and no reelection. China will blink. I’d bet on it. Well before that stubborn orange potus does. Think about it. You think Trump gives a fuck about some price hikes hahaha? The guy is Teflon to his people. His base will just say, “Fuckin Chinks took muh job and hurt how much I could get at Walmart.”

[spin_dry]

12 minutes ago, xtralettucetomatoe580 said:

Don’t be crazy. China maintains its status quo for one reason and one reason alone. Growth. Threaten that, say goodbye to compliant citizenship and no reelection. China will blink. I’d bet on it. Well before that stubborn orange potus does. Think about it. You think Trump gives a fuck about some price hikes hahaha? The guy is Teflon to his people. His base will just say, “Fuckin Chinks took muh job and hurt how much I could get at Walmart.”

Here’s an interesting statistic. Even if trump’s tariffs hit every item coming out of China and eliminated 25% of China’s exports to the US, it would only take down .7% of China’s GDP. Reason being many of the products trump would target only have 4-6% value added cost coming back to China. Most of the components and parts come from other countries. So in effect, trump would be making a lot of enemies around the globe. Including South Korea and Japan. Not that he cares. But this would have some interesting downstream effects. 

As for civilian unrest in China.  

Edited June 20, 2018 by spin_dry

[xtralettucetomatoe580]

2 minutes ago, spin_dry said:

Here’s an interesting statistic. Even if trump’s tariffs hit every item coming out of China and eliminated 25% of China’s exports to the US, it would only take down .7% of China’s GDP. Reason being many of the products trump would target only have 4-6% value added cost coming back to China. Most of the components and parts come from other countries. So in effect, trump would be making a lot of enemies around the globe. Including South Korea and Japan. Not that he cares. But this would have some interesting downstream effects. 

That is a complete misunderstanding of benefication and rules of origin that determine a countries GDP, but yes you are right it would hurt those countries. A Chinese company isn’t just realizing a loss on their product (or the Chinese gdp) of the portion they put in such as labor to assemble. It’s roughly a $145B loss. GDP of course is made up of many things. In a country with that many people, the personal consumption and govt expenditure is a huge part. Business investment would also be risked as well. It’s not always as important. Spreading $145B loss across private industry exports, a single component of GDP would be a shit storm for them. They are an export economy. We would be fucking that up hard. That in turn tosses a big wrench into personal expenditures and govt spending. It snowballs.