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I'm back out as of lunch time today. Fuck this market.....its built on hope and hype not fundamental valuation and I have seen the result of this before. No thanks

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1 hour ago, f7ben said:

I'm back out as of lunch time today. Fuck this market.....its built on hope and hype not fundamental valuation and I have seen the result of this before. No thanks

It will hit 30K on that hope and hype. Then correct to the mean. Nothing spectacular. It isn't based on faulty practices just over-exuberance. That really isn't a bad thing. The red flags that do exist are overvaluation of good products as a whole. It is the equivalent of saying Apple had a record year in sales, so lets bump their price up 20% when only 10% is justified. The key is not that they overvalued the price per say, the key is they had a a record year. The speculating on what that means for next year is the over-exuberance that is pumping this sucker through the roof. The financial statements are still strong across the board. It is still hard to say for certain that the market isn't worthy of the price it currently has. It all depends on this year. If growth shows the results promised, that sucker is worth every penny of 30K. 

 

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Ben jumped out a little early.  Tax cuts haven't even taken effect yet.  Give it just under a year.  If Democrats win the midterms jump out fast as shit is going to tank.

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8 hours ago, DriftBusta said:

Anyone who doesn't call their financial advisor or pull their money to the sidelines.

It takes two to time.  Very few get it right.  Read the quote bt Peter Lynch.

https://www.edgepointwealth.com/en/Insights/Simply-Put/It-takes-two-to-time-the-market

Edited by ArcticCrusher

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6 hours ago, BOHICA said:

Ben jumped out a little early.  Tax cuts haven't even taken effect yet.  Give it just under a year.  If Democrats win the midterms jump out fast as shit is going to tank.

Not everyone is cut out for investing in stocks. There is definitely a correction coming at some point. I don’t think it will be bad though, the economy is cooking now.

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9 hours ago, DriftBusta said:

Anyone who doesn't call their financial advisor or pull their money to the sidelines.

yes because everyone times the market so well as we see everytime the market crashes.  

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10 hours ago, ActionfigureJoe said:

Who’s fault will it be when it comes tumbling down? 

trying to predict the cause before it happens.not sure you could attempt to be more dumb 

LOL at the other experts in here 

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11 hours ago, f7ben said:

I'm back out as of lunch time today. Fuck this market.....its built on hope and hype not fundamental valuation and I have seen the result of this before. No thanks

Oh Ben.  :pan:Takes-two-to-time-CO-2.jpg.11a7538ccddfd11aaf69bdf91124aeb9.jpg

3 hours ago, ArcticCrusher said:

It takes two to time.  Very few get it right.  Read the quote bt Peter Lynch.

https://www.edgepointwealth.com/en/Insights/Simply-Put/It-takes-two-to-time-the-market

From the very first line in your link:  'If ever there was a year to show investors that market timing is truly a fool’s errand, it was 2016"  

1 hour ago, Angry ginger said:

yes because everyone times the market so well as we see everytime the market crashes.  

Who's claiming that?  All I'm saying is putting your money on the sidelines only takes a couple key strokes and/or a phone call.  I can even do it from my laptop with remote access. :lol:  But unless we see more than a 5-10% correction, and unless someone's only 5 years or so from retirement, the standard advice is to leave the money right where it is.   Never try and time the markets, its been pounded into our heads 1000 times by the veterans in this game, and the past year is perfect proof.  We are in uncharted territory, but the trend is still up.  All the rumblings I see, hear, read are thinking 30k is entirely possible this year.  Why not enjoy that ride?  On the other hand, for those close to retirement, or someone who's 50+ conservative and they want to hedge their gains, its not a bad protection strategy to put up to 30% into a good variable annuity right now.  In fact, i know where you can get one! :lol:  :bc: 

Edited by DriftBusta

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I cant fault anyone for staying in ......I'm up another 4% this month and I just feel like being in cash for a while and seeing how this year shapes up. It just seems like a ton of the positive fundamental drivers for anything near current levels have been priced in and re-priced in.........I dont see any euphoric idiocy to keep pumping the bubble up right around the corner like all the tax cut bullshit was for the last 3 months and its not going to take much for bad news or much of a catastrophic event to trigger a significant sell off.

I have never been right even one time ever in the past so if you have any brains always do the opposite of my financial advise. 

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6 minutes ago, f7ben said:

I cant fault anyone for staying in ......I'm up another 4% this month and I just feel like being in cash for a while and seeing how this year shapes up. It just seems like a ton of the positive fundamental drivers for anything near current levels have been priced in and re-priced in.........I dont see any euphoric idiocy to keep pumping the bubble up right around the corner like all the tax cut bullshit was for the last 3 months and its not going to take much for bad news or much of a catastrophic event to trigger a significant sell off.

I have never been right even one time ever in the past so if you have any brains always do the opposite of my financial advise. 

Is this bubble something that Trump should be addressing right now?

Neal

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Just now, NaturallyAspirated said:

Is this bubble something that Trump should be addressing right now?

Neal

Strange question.....I assume you are pointing to some executive action that you think is exacerbating the bubble? Trump is selling hope and hype....I dont find anything wrong with that aside from the lack of delivery on his promises. If the market and those buying in decide to expose themselves to historic gains based the hope and hype well there is not much that can be done about that.

Do you feel Trump should have done something about bitcoin before those that just bought at 18k got raped in a matter of days for 50%

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6 minutes ago, f7ben said:

Strange question.....I assume you are pointing to some executive action that you think is exacerbating the bubble? Trump is selling hope and hype....I dont find anything wrong with that aside from the lack of delivery on his promises. If the market and those buying in decide to expose themselves to historic gains based the hope and hype well there is not much that can be done about that.

Do you feel Trump should have done something about bitcoin before those that just bought at 18k got raped in a matter of days for 50%

Agreed.  Not just a strange question either.  An ignorant one.

Trumps policies  and crushing Obamas strangulating policies are allowing companies to raise the markets with their earnings outlooks.  These earnings outlooks are being predicted by the some of the most intelligent people on the planet.  They aren't sitting around wearing MAGA hats and high fiving each other with imaginary, "pie in the sky" numbers.

Consumer confidence, mo-os comfortable with spending money because they feel good they are gonna have it and be able to replace it easily in the future, is the #1 play in profit estimates.

All Obama supporters should duck out of this conversation.

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Just now, Zambroski said:

Agreed.  Not just a strange question either.  

Trumps policies  and crushing Obamas strangulating policies are allowing companies to raise the markets with their earnings outlooks.  These earnings outlooks are being predicted by the some of the most intelligent people on the planet.  They aren't sitting around wearing MAGA hats and high fiving each other with imaginary, "pie in the sky" numbers.

Consumer confidence, mo-os comfortable with spending money because they feel good they are gonna have it and be able to replace it easily in the future, is the #1 play in profit estimates.

All Obama supporters should duck out of this conversation.

Rolling back some regs is good.....most of it is anticipation of the big things he was selling and he is coming up well short. Eventually this is going to catch up to us 

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Just now, f7ben said:

Rolling back some regs is good.....most of it is anticipation of the big things he was selling and he is coming up well short. Eventually this is going to catch up to us 

We'll go through a half dozen corrections before it starts to level out.  Right now, we are rising up quickly out of the last administration forcing companies to hold onto their money and not put it into growth.  I don't even see indicators yet showing a real correction better than 10%.  Most are seeing us hitting 30k before any correction. 

But, I won't trust anything I read or see 100% again.  Day trading information for us "regualar Joe's" is designed to fuck us and I lost big time during the last fuck up because I was told "not to sweat it" as we spiraled into shitsville.  Banks will never again see a dime of interest from me.  And if I can find a way to duplicate what my FA can gain (tap into real time information) they'd be gone too.  Well, maybe not.  I suck at trading.  :lol:

 

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12 hours ago, ActionfigureJoe said:

Who’s fault will it be when it comes tumbling down? 

Actually plenty will need to be blamed on fiscal policy and $4.5 Trillion in QE money and interest rates kept too low too long.   Worldwide over $12 trillion and a lot of that has found its way into our markets.

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7 minutes ago, Zambroski said:

We'll go through a half dozen corrections before it starts to level out.  Right now, we are rising up quickly out of the last administration forcing companies to hold onto their money and not put it into growth.  I don't even see indicators yet showing a real correction better than 10%.  Most are seeing us hitting 30k before any correction. 

But, I won't trust anything I read or see 100% again.  Day trading information for us "regualar Joe's" is designed to fuck us and I lost big time during the last fuck up because I was told "not to sweat it" as we spiraled into shitsville.  Banks will never again see a dime of interest from me.  And if I can find a way to duplicate what my FA can gain (tap into real time information) they'd be gone too.  Well, maybe not.  I suck at trading.  :lol:

 

Love having the live quote screen at my finger tips.  I lost at day trading too 15 years ago.  Realized it was a fools errand.  A buddy of mine thought he was all too clever and started trading options.  Had 6 monitors in his office like he was Gordon friggin Gecko.  Just no.  He lost a shit ton.  Investing is a long term exercise, stick to the fundamentals, quality investments, diversification among investment objectives and industry sectors.  Stay away from options, penny stocks and most commodities.  Way too risky, volatile and specialized.  Rebalance 1-2x/year.  In 15-16 emerging markets sucked.  In 17 they're on fire, north of 25% in many cases.  A good FA can steer you accordingly.  While its not rocket science, you do need to pay attention and use the right resources.  Guy was in yesterday all freaky cuz his account was only up 8% last year.  Looking into it, it was the 60k worth of GE stock he brought with him, that has tanked this year and worth half what it was a year ago.  The rest of his stuff is up over 20%.  Company still has good fundamentals, and the stock is actually a deal right now.  "wide economic moat".  Hes not retiring for another 15 years, so I had to talk him out of selling it, when I could have made a nice commission.  Gotta go shop for some muni bonds for a client now.  Love this job.  Later. :lol:  :bc:   

 

PS:  Ben.  Put your money back in the market, don't be a fool.  I gave you the same advice at 21k.  You're young enough to ride though

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6 minutes ago, DriftBusta said:

Love having the live quote screen at my finger tips.  I lost at day trading too 15 years ago.  Realized it was a fools errand.  A buddy of mine thought he was all too clever and started trading options.  Had 6 monitors in his office like he was Gordon friggin Gecko.  Just no.  He lost a shit ton.  Investing is a long term exercise, stick to the fundamentals, quality investments, diversification among investment objectives and industry sectors.  Stay away from options, penny stocks and most commodities.  Way too risky, volatile and specialized.  Rebalance 1-2x/year.  In 15-16 emerging markets sucked.  In 17 they're on fire, north of 25% in many cases.  A good FA can steer you accordingly.  While its not rocket science, you do need to pay attention and use the right resources.  Guy was in yesterday all freaky cuz his account was only up 8% last year.  Looking into it, it was the 60k worth of GE stock he brought with him, that has tanked this year and worth half what it was a year ago.  The rest of his stuff is up over 20%.  Company still has good fundamentals, and the stock is actually a deal right now.  "wide economic moat".  Hes not retiring for another 15 years, so I had to talk him out of selling it, when I could have made a nice commission.  Gotta go shop for some muni bonds for a client now.  Love this job.  Later. :lol:  :bc:   

 

PS:  Ben.  Put your money back in the market, don't be a fool.  I gave you the same advice at 21k.  You're young enough to ride though

Have a cousin who isn't quite a day trader, but plays momentum's with 7 and 20 day averages for about 20 or so stocks that he has learned the patterns.  He has done quite well for himself but admits it does not always work out.

 

One of my funds just wrote this in their 4thQTR writeup re GE.

Quote

An oft-quoted aphorism in investing is to “win by not losing.” We had sold our position in industrial conglomerate GE mid-2016 when the stock was worth approximately $30/share in light of concerns around capital allocation. Since then, the company has announced significant restructuring and divestitures, but the latest weakness has stemmed from two of GE’s core businesses – power and oil & gas—which have been a key focus of management’s M&A activities over the past few years. In the latest quarter, GE cut its dividend by 50% and the stock ended the year near $17.50/share. As long-term investors, we care deeply about management’s ability to effectively deploy capital in value-creating endeavours on behalf of our clients. We won’t always get it right, but we generally tend to react when we lose confidence in this ability.  

 

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33 minutes ago, DriftBusta said:

Love having the live quote screen at my finger tips.  I lost at day trading too 15 years ago.  Realized it was a fools errand.  A buddy of mine thought he was all too clever and started trading options.  Had 6 monitors in his office like he was Gordon friggin Gecko.  Just no.  He lost a shit ton.  Investing is a long term exercise, stick to the fundamentals, quality investments, diversification among investment objectives and industry sectors.  Stay away from options, penny stocks and most commodities.  Way too risky, volatile and specialized.  Rebalance 1-2x/year.  In 15-16 emerging markets sucked.  In 17 they're on fire, north of 25% in many cases.  A good FA can steer you accordingly.  While its not rocket science, you do need to pay attention and use the right resources.  Guy was in yesterday all freaky cuz his account was only up 8% last year.  Looking into it, it was the 60k worth of GE stock he brought with him, that has tanked this year and worth half what it was a year ago.  The rest of his stuff is up over 20%.  Company still has good fundamentals, and the stock is actually a deal right now.  "wide economic moat".  Hes not retiring for another 15 years, so I had to talk him out of selling it, when I could have made a nice commission.  Gotta go shop for some muni bonds for a client now.  Love this job.  Later. :lol:  :bc:   

 

PS:  Ben.  Put your money back in the market, don't be a fool.  I gave you the same advice at 21k.  You're young enough to ride though

Consider this move to the sidelines profit taking. Its been one hell of a run and it cant continue. 

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There will always be profit takers and those that panic at any signs of "weakness."    The looming budget deadline isn't helping this week.   If you really don't know what your doing or willing to put in the research you are much better off with index or mutual funds.   Level of aggressiveness pending market fundamentals but more importantly long term goals which take in everything from current age to when you want to retire to how much money you will need to live.  

Edited by Highmark

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Jumping in and out of the market, trying to time corrections, is one of the worst mistakes investors can make. 

Buy and hold.

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2 minutes ago, teamgreen02 said:

Jumping in and out of the market, trying to time corrections, is one of the worst mistakes investors can make. 

Buy and hold.

I'm out for a while

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11 hours ago, f7ben said:

Consider this move to the sidelines profit taking. Its been one hell of a run and it cant continue. 

If you knew what I made today you would not believe it. However, I am a fat, old bastid who lives like Kermit The Frog, and doesn't really need the money for anything. I was able to sit on my portfolio when it tanked, and now it's come back with a vengeance. BFD. It took YEARS!!!

Do what works for you. 

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